The 4-Point Play looks at the four analytics-based storylines that will make you smarter when watching Wednesday’s game between the Phoenix Suns (15th in BPI) and the Dallas Mavericks (10th in BPI) at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Our BPI gives the Mavericks a 78 percent chance of winning:
1. The Mavericks’ most likely first-round opponent in the playoffs is the Houston Rockets (55 percent chance).
2. The Mavericks give up three fewer points per 100 possessions when Tyson Chandler is on the court.
3. The Suns are scoring four fewer points per 100 possessions without Goran Dragic on the floor.
4. The Suns, at 18 percent, are behind only the Golden State Warriors (18.8 percent) in the percentage of points they get from fast breaks.