Today's over/under has to be Prince Fielder, right?
How many home runs will he hit in 2012? Before you jump to a quick conclusion, here's the breakdown of his past three seasons:
2011: 38 home runs, 24 at home
2010: 32 home runs, 18 at home
2009: 46 home runs, 23 at home
While Fielder hit 46 home runs back in 2009 (and 50 back in 2007), he's averaged 35 the past two seasons and that's with help from Miller Park. On paper, Comerica isn't quite so friendly. Since Comerica opened in 2004, the most home runs hit there in one season by a left-handed batter is 14 by Carlos Pena in 2005. Since 2009, left-handed batters have hit 191 home runs at Comerica but 213 in Tigers road games, making it one of the tougher home run parks for lefties in the majors.
There are other factors. In 2011, Fielder led the NL with 32 intentional walks. While he's likely to bat behind Miguel Cabrera in the Detroit lineup, he should have guys like Delmon Young, Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta hitting behind him. He had Casey McGehee hitting behind him most of the season in Milwaukee, so it's likely his intentional walk total will go down, so that should mean a few extra at-bats. Split the difference and 35 seems like a good over/under line.
What do you think?