Over/under: Wins for Marlins

I just wrote up a position-by-position analysis for the Miami Marlins and came up with the prediction of 86 wins, a 14-game improvement over 2011.

That's a fairly optimistic total: I assumed good health for Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson, and a nice bounce back from Hanley Ramirez. It wasn't the most optimistic scenario I could have come up with -- I projected Reyes with a downturn from his 2011 numbers, and only moderate growth for superstar-in-waiting Giancarlo Stanton.

Vegas is more pessimistic than I am, posting the Marlins' over/under at 82.5 wins. But the bookmakers have to look at such things with a tougher eye -- they don't assume all five starters will remain healthy or that Ramirez and Reyes will both hit .325 and score 100-plus runs. Fans, by nature, are more optimistic.

What do you think? I'm pretty sure the "over" will win this poll pretty easily.