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Over/under: Wins for Mets

Could it be that the New York Mets won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

After all, they did win 77 games in 2011. And, yes, they will be without Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, their two best hitters last season. On the other hand ... OK, I'm trying to come up with an other hand.

No, there are reasons the Mets could conceivably chase .500 in 2012. Here are five:

1. A full season from Ike Davis. Remember, Davis was tearing it up (.302/.383/.543) in 36 games before his injury.

2. Improved production from David Wright and Jason Bay with the Citi Field fences moved in.

3. The return of Johan Santana.

4. A better bullpen -- Mets were 15th in the NL with a 4.33 relief ERA.

5. Lucas Duda can hit -- .322/.411/.546 in the second half.

OK, that's the positive spin. What do you think? Oddsmakers have the Mets at 74.5 wins.