DraftExpress has had some serious researchers (Heather N. Allen, Ph.D. and Paul Gearan) analyze 22 years of the NBA draft. The kinds of things they have found about the first round: if you're a top seven pick, you are 70% likely to be an NBA starter or even a star after five years, point guards are drafted less but stick around more, big men have a greater likelihood of being busts, there are good wing players around after the top seven picks, and there is no team that is way better than the rest at drafting. In a follow-up looking at the second round, they found: "The most likely five-year outcome for the 574 picks made in the second round between 1980 and 2001 was that they were no longer playing in the NBA. Mixed in were a few bench players and, rarely, a starter or star. Of these players, 29% never played in an NBA game, 62% played fewer than 100 games, and 72% were not in the NBA within five years after being drafted. Only nine star players arose from this group: Ginobili, Jeff Hornacek, Mark Price, Michael Redd, Doc Rivers, Clifford Robinson, Dennis Rodman, Nick Van Exel, and Gilbert Arenas. There were an additional five players who, while not consistent stars, made one all-star appearance: Danny Ainge, Cedric Ceballos, Antonio Davis, Rashard Lewis (of course he may yet become a higher profile star), and Kevin Duckworth. But basically, if you are looking for an all-star gem in the second round, good luck. Your odds are about one in 50. Additionally, of the 14 players listed above, only Ginobili, Hornacek, Ceballos, and Davis were obtained in the latter half of the second round."
Could it really be so? Another accusation, about a new incident, associating Pacer players with late night trouble. The Pacers are so helping the PR of my Blazers.
Elie Seckbach talks to Elton Brand, who says he's getting a google alert right now about this very post. He also allegedly has a blog, albeit a non-public one, as far as I can tell, at koolse.com. UPDATE: I'm a lazy searcher, it turns out, compared to Miss Gossip and Erin Podolsky who both found Elton Brand's blog.
Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold introduces us to a really cool part of NBA.com: shot charts called Hot Zones: "Shots from every NBA player are charted and put into one of 14 zones on the court (I use the same zones when charting shots, save that I also break out dunks and lay-ups separate from other shots right around the basket). Just to make it easier, when players shoot well from an area it’s colored in red, cold it’s blue. This is a useful tool for us fans because it (along with some observation) can give us insights into the shooting strengths and weaknesses of players. (Coaches have this information already, and should have it in more detailed forms.) Let’s talk Kobe for a second — he clearly feels more comfortable setting up on the right side of the court. As you could have guessed from watching a few games, Kobe takes most of his threes from a wing spot extended. From the right wing side he is shooting 43% on threes (40 of 93), but from the left wing extended he is at 29.3% (22 of 75)."
Frank Deford is clued in to the NBA's new age rule, and says it's all about marketing--the idea is that players will be famous before they arrive. See Durant, Kevin.
Ross Siler reports: "[Phil] Jackson put off giving a book to each player on this trip, one of his annual traditions as a coach. He was unable to find a book that was out of print and went off on his players recently that they weren’t going to appreciate them anyway. `All you guys can do is play video games and watch porn movies,’ Jackson said."