Running the Numbers on the Draft Lottery

What percent chance does Boston have at the top pick? What chance does Phoenix have at getting Atlanta's pick, which happens if the pick is fourth or lower? What percent chance does Minnesota have of keeping its pick in the top ten, and thus away from the Clippers? How big of a mistake was it for Portland to have lost to Seattle on Saturday?

Those are questions that do not have easy answers. But a TrueHoop reader has done the math. His abacus must be on fire!

Check out his amazing tables showing all the percentages. Some highlights (if the season ended today):

  • Boston has nearly a 20% chance at the top pick.

  • There's nearly a 64% chance Phoenix will get Atlanta's draft pick this year.

  • The 'Wolves have pretty much already assured themselves they won't be giving their pick to the Clippers (all that losing -- they must be so proud!).

  • He has also determined that if the season ended today, Portland's chances at a top-three pick would be about 15%. If they had lost to Seattle on Saturday, however, that number would have been 28%.

I hope he keeps the table updated through the end of the season.