Using an advanced, metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, play-calling success rates and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.
Every Thursday during the football season, he will share with Chalk his top totals bets for the upcoming college football weekend. Warren will offer leans or plays, with the plays divided based on strength between full recommendations and split recommendations (with split recommendations suggested at half the weight as a full recommendation).
This season's record:
Full recommendations: 2-2 (50 percent)
Split recommendations: 3-1 (75 percent)
Full recommendations: 16-7 (70 percent)
Split recommendations: 9-11 (45 percent)
2015 Final weighted record: 20.5-12.5 (62 percent)
Here are his top Week 8 college football totals bets:
Army's potent run offense should give North Texas trouble, as the Black Knights rank 47th in rush efficiency and first in rushing rate and are facing the 118th rated run defense of the Mean Green -- plus, North Texas has not faced a rush offense nearly as potent or as grueling as Army's. The Mean Green's closest opponent was Middle Tennessee, whose rush offense ranks 61st. But Middle Tennessee is one of the most pass heavy teams in football, and thus did not attack the weakness of the North Texas defense nearly as often.