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Betting guide for the 2019 Kentucky Derby

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Fallica, Goldberg give Derby predictions (1:11)

Chris Fallica and Hank Goldberg join Daily Wager to cast their predictions on the upcoming Kentucky Derby. (1:11)

Last year Justify became the sixth straight favorite to win the Kentucky Derby and went on to win the Triple Crown. Is there another Triple Crown winner in this group of horses? Time will tell, but first things first; here's my breakdown of every horse in the Kentucky Derby field.

Note: Horses listed in order of post position.


Chris Fallica's guide to the field

1. War of Will (20-1 ML)

War of Will is the unfortunate victim of the rail draw. He had some appeal, too, as he broke maiden at Churchill Downs in the slop in November, had a great local workout last week and looked to be on the verge of atoning for a poor showing as a beaten favorite in the Louisiana Derby. But the rail eliminates him from win consideration. Since Ferdinand won the Derby in 1986, only two horses have even cracked the trifecta from that position, one of whom was stretch runner Lookin at Lee in 2017 at 33-1. War of Will has a much different preferred running style as a presser/early speed type, so dropping totally out of it and passing a bunch of horses late isn't his M.O. I expect him to send hard out of the gate and hope for the best trip possible, which likely means he's ticketed for a midpack finish at best.

2. Tax (20-1)

Trainer Danny Gargan's first Derby starter is a cut below the rest, despite considerable improvement and consistency since being claimed for $50K. He wasn't the best horse in the Withers (Not That Brady did all the dirty work and Tax just got up late), and he was soundly beaten by Tacitus in the Wood, despite Tacitus having an eventful trip. And Post 2 is no bargain. Since 1987, runners breaking from Posts 1 and 2 have just three seconds and five third-place finishes, most of them coming from stretch runners who dropped back and passed tired horses late.