<
>

TAB Betting Blog: No Darkness in Night Falls' Sandown claims

Horses in action at Sandown Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

The best of the midweek racing comes from Sandown and Randwick this week, tab.com.au form analyst Mitchell Lamb finding options at both circuits.

WEDNESDAY'S BEST

Sandown (Lakeside) Race 1 No.4 Night Falls (Mark Zahra) - $2.80

You'll have to put up with the somewhat skinny quote here, but Night Falls will be breaking his maiden status here bar something out of the ordinary occurring.

The well-bred son of Fastnet Rock ran into a pair of very talented types in his initial campaign who denied him victory at his first two starts. The first of those, Eptimum, who went on to win a stakes race on Cox Plate Day and was subsequently sold to Hong Kong, the latter being a future stakes class filly in Light Romance.

Darren Weir brought Night Falls back at the end of March at a Pakenham night meeting, where the colt was held up after straightening, had to be shifted off heels and brought wide. But she got home hard behind a pair that enjoyed unimpeded runs and had all the momentum. It wasn't a great watch if you were on.

That hopefully won't be an issue here as he's drawn wider for this and Mark Zahra should be able to have him well away from the fence and ready to unleash when the pressure is applied. I can't see any of the others here with a similar upside and he looks a nice play to start the day.

AROUND THE GROUNDS

Randwick (Kensington) Race 5 No.6 Seaway (Kerrin McEvoy) - $3.50

I was surprised Seaway was so hard in the market first up, considering he'd only had the one trial; he was up against a decent field of older horses over a trip that's well short of his best. Obviously a few think that he's got ability, as do I, but that never really seemed a suitable race. But he held his ground fairly well over the last furlong after looking like he was going to run a well beaten last.

The son of Ocean Park is going to be a miler at the very least. Looking back at his first campaign, when he won the latter two starts at Canterbury, the victory over 1250m was rock solid, but the one over the 1550m, when he beat a very talented filly in stablemate, Savacool, showed me this guy is going to win his fair share over that type of trip.

He gets to the 1550m again here, this time at the new Kensington circuit, and takes on older horses again. But it looks a lesser race than what he tackled first up. With natural improvement fitness wise, a likely soft run, and a step up in trip, I expect Seaway to take a big leap forward here and display his class.

I imagine they could be looking at races like the Queensland and Sunshine Coast Guineas with him and that should mean he's hard to beat in this.

Sandown (Lakeside) Race 7 No.3 Galaxy Raider (Jordan Childs) - $2.50

It's been well documented that Galaxy Raider has had zero luck in two starts for his new trainer Grahame Begg; he's knocking as loudly as you can on the door for a win.

First up he was a mile back up the straight at Flemington, held up for a run for several hundred metres, before absolutely flying late when the race was all over.

Then, at the Bendigo Saturday meeting a couple of weeks ago, the son of Hard Spun was wide in the run and couldn't get anything to bring him into the race. He had to chase from a long way and circle the field, before failing to run down Haski, who'd enjoyed a beautiful run just behind the leaders and got the break on him. It was a game effort full of encouragement.

Galaxy Raider gets into an easier race now, goes up a little more in trip and really should get every chance up the straight to run down the leaders here. Yes, you're taking skinny odds about a horse that's won just 2 from 20 and has the quintessential "get back" race pattern that can be dangerous to trust at the best of times, but he is clearly flying and only bad luck can deny him you'd think.

OVER THE ODDS

Randwick (Kensington) Race 2 No.10 Toryjoy (Glyn Schofield) - $9

After trialling nicely back in November, Toryjoy was sent out for her debut a few weeks later at Canterbury where, unfortunately, she was trapped wide throughout and battled away late to be beaten by almost five lengths.

Chris Waller tipped out the Street Cry filly straight away, and the next time we saw her was a couple of weeks ago in a Rosehill trial where she was sent forward midrace around the entire field and was still there at the end when beaten half a length. I thought it was a lovely effort to get her ready to go back to the races and she's found a winnable race here first up.

I'm happy to believe Toryjoy's got some ability, and whilst she's got a long way to go to prove it, this isn't a deep field of maiden fillies. She looks the type that might be able to take a step and improve significantly in her second campaign.

QUADDIE SELECTIONS

Randwick (Kensington)

Leg 1 - 1,2,3,4

Leg 2 - 4,6

Leg 3 - 3,4,5,7,8,9,10

Leg 4 - 1,3,4,6,7,9

($100 = 29.76%)

Sandown (Lakeside)

Leg 1 - 1,2,3,5,6

Leg 2 - 1,2,3,4

Leg 3 - 3

Leg 4 - 5,6,7,8,10,11,16

($100 = 71.42%)