Outside the Lines
Ultimate Super Bowl LI Preview
After 266 games, just two teams remain. Will Tom and Bill add a fifth Super Bowl title to their legacy? Or will Matt Ryan's jet-powered offense finally earn a title for Atlanta? Here's your head-to-head breakdown of the Patriots and Falcons.by Ben ArledgeESPN illustration
Ultimate Super
Bowl Preview
After 266 games, 34,008 offensive snaps and 1,361 touchdowns, just two teams remain. Will Brady and Belichick add a fifth Super Bowl title to their legacy? Or will Matt Ryan's jet-powered offense finally earn a title for Atlanta? Here's your head-to-head breakdown of how the Patriots and the Falcons will stack up come Feb. 5.
By Ben Arledge | ESPN THE MAGAZINE
How they match up

The best of the best
Patriots efficiency rank
Offense
Defense
Special teams
Overall
*ESPN's efficiency metric measures a team's per-play contribution to the scoring margin.
How they got here
The Patriots and Falcons combined for just one loss after Week 10 while finishing first (plus-11.9) and second (8.38), respectively, in the NFL in scoring margin for the season (New England won seven of its regular season games by at least two TDs). It was more of the same in the postseason for both squads -- Atlanta outscored its opponents by a combined 39 points, and New England by 37.Patriots scoring differential
Patriots offense
vs. Falcons defense

Scouting Report: Tom Brady
Falcons defense opponent QBR rank among 32 teams
10 yards and under
11-20 yards
More than 20 yards
Scouting Report: QB pressure
Scouting Report: Rushing
Clutch time
89.0
Turnovers
2
Falcons offense
vs. Patriots defense

Scouting report: Matt Ryan
Patriots defense opponent QBR rank among 32 teams
10 yards and under
11-20 yards
More than 20 yards
Scouting report: QB pressure
Scouting report: Rushing
Clutch time
54.3
Turnovers
11
What to watch for


Kicking
Stephen Gostkowski, shockingly, might not be the more reliable kicker here. He missed three PATs in the regular season; Matt Bryant missed one and was 15-of-17 on kicks of 40 yards or longer.
GOSTKOWSKI
BRYANT
Returning
11.38
Atlanta averaged 11.38 yards per punt return, fifth highest in the NFL. Eric Weems returned all 24 punts for the Falcons.
4.96
Trend watch
33.5%
Down the stretch, Julian Edelman was targeted on 33.5 percent of his routes -- the NFL's second-highest frequency, and a sharp increase from his rate in Weeks 1-8 (22.8 percent).
47.0%
Penalties
Prediction

Both Atlanta and New England roll into Houston hot. Matt Ryan -- 730 passing yards, seven TDs, and zero INTs in two games -- and his Falcons have dominated the NFC. The Pats are coming off a 36-17 win against Pittsburgh in which a 39-year-old Tom Brady had a 384-yard day. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, which takes into account each team's strengths, as well as several other factors, you can expect one for the ages, with the Patriots outlasting the Falcons to win the Lombardi Trophy.
1.8
Projected margin of victory for the Patriots over the Falcons.
55.6%
Projected chance of victory for the Patriots over the Falcons.
Photo illustration by Richard Roberts. Photograph of Brady by James Michelfelder and photograph of Ryan by Matt Hoyle. All data courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info. Stats through regular season; yards per carry stats are rounded.