The California Recall Election Wasn't Close: 9/14/21
In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin.
Will Bidens Vaccine Mandates Work?: 9/13/21
The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal.
Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days: 9/7/21
American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election.
Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas: 9/2/21
Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general.
The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What?: 8/30/21
As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war.
Model Talk: How Climate Models Work: 8/19/21
Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper.
What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan: 8/16/21
The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data.
Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns: 8/10/21
The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.
Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen?: 8/9/21
The crew discusses why Bidens favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker.
How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal: 8/4/21
The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden.
Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive: 8/2/21
The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom.
What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike: 7/29/21
The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic.
Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?: 7/26/21
Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.
The Great Inflation Debate: 7/22/21
According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.
Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?: 7/19/21
Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.
Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling: 7/15/21
We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.
A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?: 7/12/21
The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are thriving is a good or bad use of polling.
Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Havent Gone Away: 7/8/21
Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.
What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020: 7/6/21
Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election.
What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term: 7/2/21
On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law.
Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan: 6/28/21
A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans.
Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions: 6/24/21
Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches.
What Comes Next For Democrats Election Legislation: 6/22/21
The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures.
Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race: 6/17/21
Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly.
The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections: 6/14/21
The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling.
How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics: 6/10/21
During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Today those numbers have flipped. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage."
One Special Election Cant Forecast The Midterms: 6/7/21
Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020.
How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party: 6/4/21
In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party.
The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up: 6/1/21
The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling."
What NYCs Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us: 5/27/21
New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election.
A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death: 5/24/21
History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.
20 Questions With Nate And Galen: 5/20/21
Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.
Can You Win A Fight With A Goose?: 5/17/21
The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system.
Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson': 5/13/21
Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." - In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other.
If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?: 5/10/21
What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Floridas new voting law tell us about the GOPs efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the partys larger motivations?
If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?: 5/10/21
What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations?
How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior: 5/6/21
The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown."
Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas: 5/3/21
The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos.
Biden's First 100 Days: 4/29/21
The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.
A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority: 4/26/21
The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030.
Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics.: 4/22/21
Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics.
Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay: 4/19/21
The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989.
How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer: 4/15/21
We look at two of this weeks biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.
Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan: 4/12/21
The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys.
Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last?: 4/8/21
Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why.
How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan?: 4/5/21
The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses.
Elections To Watch In 2021: 4/1/21
The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats.
Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy: 3/29/21
The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term.
The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed: 3/25/21
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings.
The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically: 3/22/21
The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades.
How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics: 3/18/21
Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded.
Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects?: 3/15/21
The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms.
Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020?: 3/11/21
With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill.
Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear: 3/8/21
The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states.
How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics: 3/4/21
This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church."
Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?: 3/1/21
The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster.
What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs: 2/25/21
Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.
Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular: 2/22/21
The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling.
How The Crisis In Texas Happened: 2/18/21
Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises.
Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump: 2/16/21
Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom.
The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument: 2/11/21
While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications.
What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do: 2/8/21
Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020.
What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?: 2/4/21
Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought.
Biden's Response To The Pandemic: 2/1/21
Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President Trump's. They also discuss a recent poll showing that if Trump were to start a new "Patriot Party," it would have significant draw among Republican voters.
The Final Model Talk Of 2020: 1/28/21
Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for elections going forward.
Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another: 1/25/21
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew also looks at the dynamics in Congress that will determine whether or not President Biden can pass his agenda.
The Biden Presidency Begins: 1/20/21
On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office.
Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?: 1/19/21
This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be.
Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment: 1/13/21
On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next.
What Led To The Attack On The Capitol: 1/11/21
The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack.
What Will The GOP Do Now?: 1/6/21
The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.
Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia: 1/4/21
The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.
Goodbye To 2020: 12/28/20
In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling."
Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States: 12/21/20
The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far.
What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?: 12/17/20
Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.
Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results: 12/14/20
The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trumps attempts to overturn the election are not over.
What's The Deal With Pardons?: 12/10/20
Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.
The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP: 12/8/20
The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
How To Make Polls Better: 12/3/20
Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them.
What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?: 11/30/20
The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.
Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy: 11/23/20
Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.
Will Georgia Stay Blue?: 11/19/20
Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.
What Divided The Electorate In 2020: 11/16/20
The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.
Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Werent That Bad: 11/12/20
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.
Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand: 11/9/20
The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term.
Biden Is Set To Be The Next President: 11/7/20
The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.
Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania & And The Presidency: 11/5/20
As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.
Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer: 11/4/20
After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.
The Election Isn't Over: 11/3/20
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.
Final Reflections Before The Election: 11/2/20
In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.
What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us: 11/1/20
Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.
How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic: 10/31/20
Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.
Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters: 10/30/20
This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)
The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election: 10/29/20
There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020: 10/28/20
In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.
How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election: 10/27/20
Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.
October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections: 10/26/20
The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.
Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree: 10/23/20
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.
The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here: 10/22/20
The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.
How Voting Is Going So Far: 10/21/20
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.
The Most Competitive Races In 2020: 10/20/20
Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.
Embrace The Uncertainty: 10/19/20
The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.
Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased: 10/16/20
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.
What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings: 10/15/20
Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.
The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate: 10/12/20
The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.
Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens: 10/9/20
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.
Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate: 10/7/20
The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.
What We Know About The President's Health: 10/5/20
During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.
Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19: 10/2/20
The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?: 10/1/20
In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.
Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate: 9/29/20
The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.
The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns: 9/28/20
The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.
Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power: 9/24/20
In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.
What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburgs Seat: 9/21/20
So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy: 9/19/20
In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.
Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate: 9/18/20
FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.
Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters: 9/14/20
The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.
How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election: 9/11/20
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting: 9/8/20
The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"
Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage: 9/3/20
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.
The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha: 8/31/20
The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.
RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words: 8/27/20
The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal: 8/26/20
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance: 8/25/20
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism: 8/24/20
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy: 8/20/20
The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role: 8/19/20
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are: 8/18/20
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump: 8/17/20
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!: 8/12/20
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.
Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick: 8/11/20
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.
The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes: 8/10/20
Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.
It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid: 8/3/20
After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump: 7/30/20
Rep. Will Hurd of Texass 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.
Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away: 7/27/20
According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election: 7/23/20
In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, weve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?
There Aren't Secret Trump Voters: 7/20/20
A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.
White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality: 7/16/20
In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.
COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?: 7/13/20
The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."
Conservatives Didnt Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term: 7/9/20
FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds: 7/6/20
The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party: 7/2/20
FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."
Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas: 6/29/20
The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.
New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19: 6/25/20
FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment: 6/22/20
The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally: 6/18/20
In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.
Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?: 6/15/20
The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
The Protests Appear To Be Working: 6/12/20
New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises: 6/8/20
The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.
Protests, Then And Now: 6/4/20
Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.
The Data Behind Police Violence: 6/1/20
Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him: 5/28/20
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases: 5/26/20
The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
One Virus, A World Full Of Responses: 5/21/20
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?: 5/18/20
The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading: 5/14/20
Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen: 5/11/20
The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means: 5/8/20
Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation: 5/4/20
The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?: 4/30/20
States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?: 4/27/20
The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19: 4/22/20
Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?: 4/20/20
The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.
How To Hold An Election During A Crisis: 4/16/20
What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?
Our 2020 Election Priors: 4/13/20
Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out: 4/8/20
The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.
Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess: 4/6/20
The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19: 4/2/20
FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased: 3/30/20
The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart: 3/26/20
Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics: 3/23/20
The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy: 3/20/20
Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote: 3/18/20
FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics: 3/16/20
The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic: 3/15/20
The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive: 3/10/20
The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?: 3/9/20
The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out: 3/5/20
The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?: 3/3/20
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
What's At Stake On Super Tuesday: 3/2/20
The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina: 2/29/20
The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden: 2/26/20
Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate: 2/25/20
The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada: 2/23/20
Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate: 2/19/20
In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
Can Bloomberg Win?!: 2/18/20
The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases: 2/14/20
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire: 2/11/20
The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview: 2/10/20
At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
Live From The New Hampshire Debate: 2/7/20
The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
The Results In Iowa: 2/5/20
The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses: 2/2/20
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040: 1/30/20
As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
When Women Run: 1/29/20
To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.
The Sanders Surge: 1/27/20
The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.
The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?: 1/23/20
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
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