<
>
Get ESPN+

Sleeper and bust pitchers for fantasy using ZiPS projections

David Price and Felix Hernandez may both be fantasy aces this season. But one of them is going way too early in drafts. AP Photo

One of the big mistakes people make going into a draft is having a plan that is too rigid. I see this all the time in questions I receive, stuff like "Is Round X too early to take player Y?" The answer, of course, is "it depends." A key to having a productive draft that starts you off on the right foot requires managing that tension between drafting for need and drafting for value.

I can't help you with need -- I'm not at your fantasy draft -- but as someone who does a lot of work with projections, I can assist with the latter. There's an old joke about two campers running from a bear. One camper asks his friend, "Do you really think you can outrun a bear?" His friend responds, "No, but I can run faster than you." When drafting for value, you don't want to just know how good a player is, but where your opponents are likely to draft the player.

To this end, I go into every draft in March with my cheat sheet, but I also pay attention to the biggest disagreement between ZiPS projections (with adjustments for expected playing time) and average draft position. Below are some of my overvalued/undervalued players in this year's fantasy drafts. If you're in one of my leagues, could you stop reading? Thanks.

On Thursday, we looked at the hitters. Today, it's the pitchers: