We could be in for a host of big scores on Tuesday, as there aren't many studs going (Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer, Miles Mikolas) and a game in Coors Field (though both arms are capable). Let's see if we can put together a winner with this group.
Pitchers to stream
Tyler Anderson (L), rostered in 33 percent of ESPN leagues, Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Yes, we're kicking off the Tuesday slate with a pitcher in Coors! Part of it is the light slate of viable arms with a lot of scrubs pitching, but it's also an endorsement of Anderson. He's definitely been better on the road, but he hasn't been bad at home, especially of late. In his past three home starts, he has a 3.26 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings with 22 strikeouts, including a gem of eight scoreless innings against San Francisco in his most recent start.
Jhoulys Chacin (R), 40 percent, Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins: Chacin is actually having a similar season to his 2017 but without the crazy home/road split we saw last year. He had a 1.79 ERA at home and 6.53 ERA on the road despite similar skill sets regardless of venue, while this year, he has just a 10-point difference between home and away, favoring his road work at 3.59. A couple of double-digit outputs recently aren't enough to make anyone fear the Marlins as a matchup. They are still just 25th in wOBA against righties on the season.
Joe Musgrove (R), 15 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: Musgrove is due back from the disabled list after a finger injury. Hopefully, he can pick up where he left off, though against a much tougher opponent than the Padres team he dropped seven scoreless on before his absence. Musgrove labored through the two starts before that. Musgrove's inclusion right off the DL against a tough opponent highlights the dearth of strong options for Tuesday.
Matt Andriese is slated to start for the Rays and will likely be in the opener role, as he hasn't gone more than three innings all year. The Rays would be served to run out a host of righties after Andriese, too, as the Tigers are 27th in wOBA against them on the year and 29th in the last month. If they go with lefty Ryan Yarbrough, the scales tip back toward the Tigers, as they are fourth for the season and ninth in the past month.
Projected game scores
Willians Astudillo (R), 1 percent, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (RHP Ian Kennedy): You'll have to a keep close eye on the lineup because everyone's new favorite player isn't getting a ton of playing time just yet. The beauty is that he needn't catch to start. In fact, he hasn't caught in the majors yet despite qualifying there. The contact star (3 percent strikeout rate in 2342 minor league plate appearances) doesn't look like he'd be a fit for anywhere but DH, yet he has played second, third, center and left so far with the Twins. He spent the bulk of his minor league time behind the dish, hence his eligibility there. We need the Twins to #FreeWillians immediately!
Yuli Gurriel (R), 53 percent, Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea): When I first made my list of candidates on Sunday morning, he was at 47 percent roster rate, and now he's up to 53 percent and past our normal threshold, but I kept him in because I still think 53 is way too low. Perhaps if first base was a strong fantasy position this year, I'd understand it, but it has been a disappointment, and thus the No. 12 1B on the Player Rater needs to be rostered in more leagues.
Ketel Marte (B), 24 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (LHP Tyler Anderson): You already know it wouldn't be a Sporer Daily Notes without going against one of my pitchers, but it's Coors and so I'm well aware of the fact that Anderson is hardly a sure thing. Marte has smacked lefties this year to the tune of a .950 OPS with four of his eight homers in 123 PA (36 percent of his season total 335).
Wilmer Flores (R), 5 percent, New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Enyel De Los Santos): If you play in leagues deep enough to regularly consider Flores, the first thing you think about when you see his name is "lefty-destroyer." That has been his reputation for the past few years, but he's flipped it this year with an .850 OPS and six homers against righties, nearly 200 points better than his .653 against lefties (with just a single homer).
Enrique Hernandez (R), 40 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (LHP Eric Lauer): Hernandez made my list last week and he's back again with a clearer path to playing time and a lefty on the bump (career .861 OPS vs. lefties). Yasiel Puig is likely headed to the DL (you'll likely know for sure by the time you read this), and while Hernandez would've likely drawn the start against Lauer anyway, he now has a chance to get regularly playing time heading into the break. He has clubbed 15 homers in 81 games, so if you need power and don't care about batting average (.230 on the season), Hernandez is a solid bet.
Colin Moran (L), 8 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals (RHP Jeremy Hellickson): Moran has a solid .278/.345/.449 line against righties this year, and after a meager six RBIs in June, he needed just a week to match that total for July. Hellickson has struggled in his past two starts, including a shellacking at the hands of the Marlins (4 IP/8 ER), and lefties have gotten the best of him all year (.798 OPS, +160 points over righties). Even if he gets back on track a bit, Moran can still do some damage.
Matt Duffy (R), 31 percent, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers (LHP Matthew Boyd): Duffy is a more available version of Gurriel as a batting-average-first asset who lacks the power to really catch the attention of fantasy players. Duffy is in a far worse lineup than Gurriel, but his dual eligibility at shortstop and third base, plus six stolen bases on the season (worth noting that Gurriel has three of his own), help make up the difference. Duffy has always done his best work against righties, but he should get a few shots at the righty-heavy Tigers bullpen, especially if Boyd continues to sputter as he has recently (10.59 ERA in his past four).
Avisail Garcia (R), 55 percent, Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Miles Mikolas): He's similar to Gurriel in that he was sub-50 percent when I first made the list, but then jumped over the mark as leagues made pickups on Sunday. He has been on fire since returning from the disabled list with a .333 AVG, 1.130 OPS and eight homers in 69 nice at-bats. He did leave Sunday's game with some hamstring tightness, so stay tuned, but he's worth holding beyond Tuesday anyway, so scoop him up where available.
Randal Grichuk (R), 8 percent, Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves (RHP Julio Teheran): Grichuk is here for one thing: to hit bombs! The power-hitting righty has nine homers in 32 games since returning from a knee injury. Teheran has handled righties pretty well this year, allowing a .676 OPS, but they still have 10 HR and a .241 ISO against him.
Max Kepler (L), 30 percent, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (RHP Ian Kennedy): It hasn't been the breakout season many were hoping to see from Kepler, as he has flipped his platoon split and started hitting lefties and wilting against righties, but we're playing the pitcher here. Kennedy is a home run machine with an incredible 1.7 HR/9 since 2015, and he's equal opportunity with lefties hitting 58 of his 115 allowed in that time.
Hitter matchup ratings
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's history (three years' worth) as well as ballpark factors. "LH" and "RH" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.
Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.