<
>

Fantasy intel for all 32 NFL teams ahead of Week 10

Below are notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams from a fantasy perspective. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for Week 10. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.

Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OTD." OTD stands for opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an OTD of 3.0, it means that a league-average player who saw the same number of carries/targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns.


Arizona Cardinals

Adrian Peterson carried the ball a career-high 37 times against the 49ers on Sunday. The 32-year-old back put up 159 yards (4.3 average) and added 8 yards on a pair of catches. During his three games with Arizona, Peterson is responsible for 74 of the team's 79 rushing attempts by tailbacks (Kerwynn Williams has the other five). Peterson has played 125 of the 161 offensive snaps, which includes 45 of the 89 pass plays. During Sunday's win, Peterson actually ran more routes (17 to 13) and saw more targets (four to three) than Andre Ellington. Peterson sits ninth among running backs in fantasy points during his three weeks with the Cardinals and paces the NFL with 74 carries and 314 rushing yards during the span. He's seeing enough volume that he belongs in the RB2 mix moving forward.

Atlanta Falcons

Mohamed Sanu caught all three of his targets for 23 yards and one touchdown against the Panthers on Sunday. It wasn't the most inspiring line, but consider that Sanu has caught 30 of 41 targets for 322 yards and three touchdowns during his six complete games this season. He ranks 11th among wide receivers in fantasy points during those weeks. Sanu is handling a career-high 22 percent target share (6.8 per game) and is on pace for the best fantasy season of his career. Sanu is inexplicably available in 32.2 percent of ESPN leagues, so be sure to check your waiver wire this week.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have called pass on 57 percent of their offensive plays this season. Based on Baltimore's game script, the average NFL team would be at 62 percent. That 5 percent gap is third largest in the NFL. Put another way: The Ravens are operating the NFL's third-most run-heavy offense. That's quite the change from last season, when Baltimore called the league's second-most pass-heavy offense (6 percent over expected). The philosophical change has led to more carries for Alex Collins and Javorius Allen, but it has been one reason why Joe Flacco has yet to post a single top-15 fantasy week.

Buffalo Bills

Since joining Buffalo in late October, Deonte Thompson has posted a pair of 80-plus-yard games and scored his first touchdown with the team against the Jets in Week 9. Though the production has been terrific, it's very unlikely that Thompson will come close to fantasy relevance moving forward, following the team's trade for Kelvin Benjamin. The ex-Panther will slide in at split end, with Zay Jones at flanker and Jordan Matthews in the slot. Thompson's strong play figures to land him a situational role, but there won't be enough volume to get him into the flex conversation. He's safe to leave on waivers.

Carolina Panthers

In their first game without Kelvin Benjamin, rookie Curtis Samuel unsurprisingly stepped into a much larger role, but he surprisingly paced the team's wide receivers in snaps. Samuel registered one carry and five targets on a career-high 48 plays. Devin Funchess led the team with seven targets on 47 snaps. Russell Shepard was targeted only twice on 36 snaps, with Brenton Bersin and Kaelin Clay cleaning up scraps with no targets on 17 snaps. Samuel didn't exactly fill the box score (37 yards), but he's an explosive second-round pick who was just promoted to a significant role in a respectable offense. He is worth a bench spot and very well could work his way into the flex discussion.

Chicago Bears

Four games into his NFL career, Mitchell Trubisky has completed 48 percent of his 80 pass attempts, is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, has two touchdowns and two interceptions and has been sacked 11 times. He has been off target on 25 percent of his attempts, which is worst in the league among passers with at least 80 attempts. Even for a rookie, that's not good. Yes, Trubisky is operating in a very run-heavy offense and is throwing to one of the worst group of pass-catchers in the league, but that's not going to change moving forward this season. Trubisky remains well off the fantasy radar and should only be rostered in dynasty leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill was a healthy scratch for the first time this season in Week 9, but it didn't lead to a breakout game for rookie Joe Mixon or much production for scatback Giovani Bernard. Mixon played a workhorse role with 13 carries and four targets on 28 snaps. Despite Cincinnati playing from behind throughout, Bernard managed to lose 6 yards on two touches over nine snaps. Of course, the biggest issue here is that the Bengals managed to run only 37 offensive plays against the Jaguars. For perspective, that ties the Week 7 Bears for fewest offensive plays in a game this season. From a snap share perspective, Mixon was on the field for 76 percent of the offensive snaps, and he handled 76 percent of the designed runs and 24 percent of the targets. All three are easily career highs. Considering the bizarre low numbers of plays and Hill's deactivation, this might actually be a great week to try to trade for Mixon at a discount. Bernard, meanwhile, is worth no more than a spot on the end of your bench.

Cleveland Browns

Rookie DeShone Kizer's career is off to an extremely underwhelming start. Kizer has completed 52 percent of his passes, is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, has been off target on 24 percent of his throws and sports a 3:11 TD:INT ratio. All four are either worst or second worst among all passers who have attempted at least 100 passes this season. Kizer has produced 144 yards and a trio of touchdowns with his legs, but it all has added up to one top-10 fantasy week (ninth in Week 1). Kizer is not in the QB1 conversation, especially considering he has been benched multiple times.

Dallas Cowboys

Terrance Williams caught all nine of his targets for 141 yards against the Chiefs in Week 10. It was Williams' first fantasy finish better than 26th and only his second better than 48th in eight games this season. Williams entered the game averaging 4.3 targets per game, and the nine he saw against Kansas City was his highest total since Week 17 way back in 2015. Despite never missing a game, Williams has yet to finish a season better than 44th among wide receivers in fantasy points. Even after the big game, Williams is not worth adding on waivers.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos were expected to get Devontae Booker more involved in Week 9, and the second-year player went on to lead the team's running backs in snaps for the first time this season. Booker carried the ball six times and was targeted on three of his 22 snaps. C.J. Anderson handled nine carries and one target on 19 snaps. Jamaal Charles racked up four carries and four targets on 19 snaps. Clearly a three-headed committee, this is a nightmare in fantasy, especially for those who invested an early-round pick in Anderson. The Broncos seem committed to expanding Booker's role, and the fact that he paces the three backs in yards per carry (4.6), yards after contact per attempt (2.6) and yards per target (7.2) only helps his cause. Yes, 30 touches is a very small sample, but the point here is that he has done nothing to suggest his role will be reduced. Anderson remains the favorite to lead the team in carries, but he's averaging 3.5 YPC on 43 attempts and has two catches during his past four games. Anderson and Booker are nothing more than fringe flex options against the Patriots this week, and Charles is barely worth considering for a roster spot.

Detroit Lions

Marvin Jones Jr. continued his dominance against the Packers by hauling in seven of nine targets for 107 yards and a pair of touchdowns on Monday Night Football. The big game vaults Jones to 15th among wide receivers in fantasy points this season. Jones' usage has been almost identical to last season -- he's on the field for nearly every pass play and handles roughly 20 percent of the targets -- but his surge has primarily been a product of a boost in touchdowns. After scoring 10 times back in 2013, Jones has scored exactly four touchdowns in both 2015 and 2016. He's already up to five this season. Plenty busy near the goal line, Jones certainly has a shot at 10 touchdowns again this season. Jones joins teammate Golden Tate in the WR2 mix.

Green Bay Packers

Right when we thought we had the Packers' backfield figured out, they went out and threw us another curveball. Rookie Aaron Jones started, but he was limited to 11 yards on seven touches over 20 snaps. Week 1 starter Ty Montgomery was the "hot hand" and racked up six touches for 51 yards on 24 snaps. Jamaal Williams handled three touches on nine snaps (and punched in a 1-yard touchdown to end the game) after Jones was seemingly benched. Needless to say, this game created a headache for those making lineup decisions this week. Against Chicago, Jones and Montgomery can be considered nothing more than risky flex options. Williams doesn't need to be owned, as he's the clear No. 3 option in a struggling offense.

Houston Texans

This won't come as a surprise, but the Texans' offense crashed back to earth with standout rookie Deshaun Watson (torn ACL) out of the mix against the Colts in Week 9. Replacement Tom Savage completed 19 of 44 passes for 219 yards and one touchdown. DeAndre Hopkins put up 84 yards and the touchdown, but Savage connected with him on only six of 16 targets. Will Fuller V, meanwhile, caught only two of eight targets for 32 yards. On the plus side, the two receivers set a season high in the target department. On the negative side, the efficiency was poor, especially in a great matchup against a struggling Colts defense. In a tougher matchup at the Rams this week, Hopkins is a back-end WR1 and Fuller no more than a boom/bust flex.

Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of boom/bust, T.Y. Hilton exploded for five catches, 175 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets against the Texans on Sunday. Hilton now has three games with 150-plus yards this season, but he has fewer than 60 yards and a total of no touchdowns during his other six outings. The inconsistent production is hardly a shock, what with newcomer Jacoby Brissett under center and on one of the worst rosters in the NFL. You'd be hard-pressed to bench a player as talented as Hilton, but life will be much tougher against Pittsburgh's terrific defense this week. Fresh off his best game of the year, this would be a good week to explore trading away Hilton.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Marqise Lee burst out for eight receptions, 75 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets against the Bengals on Sunday. Operating as the Jaguars' clear top wideout with Allen Robinson sidelined, Lee sits 19th at wide receiver in targets and 39th in fantasy points this season. Lee has been on the field for 89 percent of the team's pass plays and is handling a career-high 26 percent target share (7.25 per game). Intriguing rookie Dede Westbrook is expected to return from injury this week and might eventually take on a significant role, but for now, Lee has settled in as a WR3/flex option in PPR.

Kansas City Chiefs

It's been a bizarre first half of the season for Kareem Hunt. The rookie tailback exploded out of the gate with six touchdowns on 56 touches during Weeks 1 through 3. In six outings since, Hunt has been held out of the end zone on 118 touches. The Toledo product averaged 8.5 yards per carry and 15.2 yards per target in Weeks 1-3, but has averaged 3.7 YPC and 7.2 YPT during his past six games. As troubling as his recent production has been, Hunt still sits 12th at the position in fantasy points during the six-game span, despite not scoring a single touchdown. Hunt is responsible for a generous 77 percent of the Chiefs' carries and 13 percent of the targets this season. Expect him to return from the team's Week 10 bye as a solid RB1 play.

Los Angeles Chargers

Since making his NFL debut in Week 6, Mike Williams has played 43 snaps (26 percent share), run 26 routes (27 percent) and has been targeted five times (six percent). The 2017 first-round pick has struggled to work past Keenan Allen (20 targets during the span), Travis Benjamin (11) and Tyrell Williams (10) on the depth chart, though it's very possible that changes following the team's Week 9 bye. The rookie shouldn't be in lineups this week, especially against Jacksonville's shutdown defense, but his upside makes him well worth an end-of-bench roster spot.

Los Angeles Rams

Jared Goff tossed four touchdowns during the Rams' rout of the Giants. Believe it or not, the big day marks Goff's first weekly fantasy finish better than ninth. Goff has been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective this season, finishing 22nd or worse three times. He remains a streaming option when the matchup is right. His top three receivers are a bit more interesting. Robert Woods scored twice on Sunday; he now has been targeted at least five times in all but one game this season. Woods is rostered in just over one-quarter of ESPN leagues, but he is a solid flex option. Sammy Watkins caught a 67-yard touchdown against New York, but that was his only catch. Watkins has zero or one catch in four of his past five games and isn't a viable fantasy starter. Cooper Kupp, meanwhile, has a touchdown in three separate games, but he hasn't eclipsed eight fantasy points during his other five outings. He's not a reliable week starter.

Miami Dolphins

In their first game without Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins turned to Kenyan Drake/Damien Williams backfield committee. Drake carried the ball nine times and was targeted six times on 33 snaps, whereas Williams handled seven carries and six targets on 28 snaps. Williams scored the only touchdown between the two, but Drake was more impressive overall, racking up 104 yards to Williams' 61. Drake now is averaging 5.3 YPC on 52 career carries, and Williams sits at 3.2 YPC on 106 tries. Both players will be plenty involved going forward. But Drake is the better player and superior fantasy option; consider him a fringe RB2 with room for more upside.

Minnesota Vikings

After playing a total of 62 snaps during his first two games with Minnesota, Michael Floyd was limited to six snaps in his return from injury in Week 8. Floyd continues to run behind Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Laquon Treadwell at wide receiver and is also behind Kyle Rudolph and Jerick McKinnon on the target totem pole. The 27-year-old receiver is a ways off from fantasy value and only worth rostering in deep dynasty leagues.

New England Patriots

Rex Burkhead has appeared in four games this season. The ex-Bengal has been limited to 15 carries and 15 targets on 57 snaps. That has been enough to allow him 192 yards, one touchdown and the 27th-most fantasy points at the position. Though the volume is problematic, Burkhead played a season-high 26 snaps in Week 8, and he will be in line for a larger role as a receiver if Chris Hogan misses this weekend's game in Denver. Burkhead's 19 percent snap share is a major red flag, but his high efficiency, the Patriots' high-scoring offense and the handcuff appeal make him worth a bench spot.

New Orleans Saints

With nine weeks in the book, Drew Brees sits ninth among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Considering that he has finished a season no worse than sixth since 2005, the "slow" start is a shocker. What's interesting here is that, in terms of efficiency, Brees actually is having one of his best seasons. He has completed 72 percent of his passes (his best mark over the past decade), is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt (his best since 2011) and has been intercepted on 1.5 percent of his attempts (best over the past decade). Brees also is taking fewer sacks and is under pressure less often. So why the dip in fantasy points? Volume. Brees is on pace to throw 550 passes, which would be his lowest mark since 2009. In fact, Brees has cleared 627 attempts in each of the past seven regular seasons. Brees also is on pace for 26 passing touchdowns, after clearing 32 in each of the past nine seasons (36.8 average). The 6-2 Saints are red-hot, and building early leads has taken pressure off the future Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback. Brees remains a solid QB1, but the team's success has been a detriment to his fantasy ceiling.

New York Giants

Sterling Shepard returned from injury in Week 9, making his debut as the Giants' clear No. 1 wide receiver. With Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall both on injured reserve, Shepard played 61 of 66 possible snaps and caught five of nine targets for 70 yards. The massive workload is hardly a surprise and should continue the rest of the season. Scoring opportunities will be rare in the Giants' struggling offense, but the heavy volume keeps Shepard in the WR2 discussion, especially against San Francisco in Week 10.

New York Jets

Another week and even less clarity in the Jets' backfield. Against Buffalo on Thursday, Matt Forte played 29 snaps and put up 96 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 18 touches. Sixth-round rookie Elijah McGuire posted 39 yards on 14 touches over 19 snaps. Bilal Powell carried the ball nine times for 74 yards but inexplicably wasn't targeted on 14 snaps. With all three backs healthy over the past three weeks, Forte paces the unit in snaps (85), carries (25) and targets (16); only three running backs have produced more fantasy points during the span. Powell (58-32-5) sits 25th and McGuire (29-17-1) is 69th at the position during the same stretch. Forte should be in lineups against the Buccaneers this week, and Powell is a fringe flex option. McGuire doesn't need to be rostered.

Oakland Raiders

Marshawn Lynch finally posted his first big game as a member of the Raiders in Week 9. Lynch registered 63 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 16 touches. It was Lynch's first top-10 fantasy week of the season, besting his previous best weekly finish of 20th in Week 5. Lynch now is averaging 12.0 carries and 1.7 targets per game on the season. He's a part-time player averaging 3.8 YPC and playing a minimal role in the passing game. Following the team's Week 10 bye and barring a change in role, Lynch will continue on as a back-end RB2 with limited upside.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jay Ajayi made his Eagles debut on Sunday and ran for 77 yards on eight carries, which included an explosive 46-yard touchdown. As expected, he played a limited role. Ajayi was on the field for 17 snaps, which was his fewest since he was on the field for 13 plays with the Dolphins in Week 4 last season. Rookie Corey Clement stole the show against Denver with three touchdowns on 13 touches over a career-high 26 snaps. "Starter" LeGarrette Blount was limited to 16 snaps and produced 37 yards on nine carries. Wendell Smallwood seemed to be the odd man out, but he did carry the ball five times on six snaps in garbage time. Kenjon Barner -- also the team's primary return man -- played two snaps. The Eagles are on a bye in Week 10, but when they return, it's a smart bet to assume Ajayi will be the team's lead back. Of course, with Blount, Clement and potentially Barner and/or Smallwood in the mix, his workload is unlikely to match what he saw most weeks with Miami. Ajayi is best viewed as a mid-to-back-end RB2 for now. Blount should be rostered for now, but he's a long shot for RB2 value, barring an Ajayi injury. Clement is not worth adding on waivers, and Smallwood should be on waivers. This backfield has the makings of a major headache for the rest of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

This shouldn't be a surprise, but Le'Veon Bell has been an absolute workhorse this season. The veteran back has been on the field for 89 percent of the Steelers' snaps and has run a route on 83 percent of pass plays. Bell is handling 24.3 (83 percent share) carries and 5.5 targets (16 percent) per game. Bell obviously is locked in as an elite RB1, leaving us only to wonder who the next man up will be if he misses time. As expected, that man is third-round rookie James Conner. The ex-Pitt Panther has carried the ball on 18 of his 38 snaps. Terrell Watson has five carries on six snaps. If Bell goes down, expect both players to be busy, but Conner would immediately leap into the RB2 mix; Bell owners in deep leagues should consider spending a bench spot on the rookie.

San Francisco 49ers

Week 9 offered us our first look at the 49ers' offense without top wideout Pierre Garcon (injured reserve, neck). As expected, Marquise Goodwin (66 snaps, eight targets) and Aldrick Robinson each played significant roles (61 snaps, eight targets). Trent Taylor manned the slot, before leaving after 15 snaps (three targets) with an injury. That opened the door for undrafted free-agent signing Kendrick Bourne to step into six targets on 39 snaps. This is not a unit you want to be invested in with C.J. Beathard under center, though Goodwin and Robinson are sneaky deep league flex plays against the Giants' defunct defense in Week 10.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have called pass on 64 percent of their offensive snaps this season. A look at their game script shows that an average NFL team would be closer to 60 percent. That 4 percent gap is second highest in the NFL, meaning only the Patriots have called a pass-heavier offensive game this season. Many think of Seattle as a run-first team, but that hasn't been the case since 2014. The Seahawks have been a pass-first team in each of the past three seasons and near the top of the league in both 2016 and 2017. Russell Wilson sits third among quarterbacks in fantasy points this season and has posted a top-six fantasy week during five of his past six outings. With a light second-half schedule on tap, expect him to continue packing the box score.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans was limited to one catch for 13 yards on six targets against rookie corner Marshon Lattimore and the surging Saints defense on Sunday. It was Evans' worst day at the office since he was held out of the box score on three targets against the Saints in Week 2 of the 2015 season. Despite the rough outing and the Buccaneers atrocious start to this season, Evans sits 10th at the position in fantasy points. He has posted a top-10 week in half of his eight outings, which trails only DeAndre Hopkins (63 percent) and Will Fuller V (60 percent) for best in the league. Evans remains a top-end WR1 play, even if Ryan Fitzpatrick is forced to fill in for injured Jameis Winston.

Tennessee Titans

Corey Davis returned from a hamstring injury and played 39 snaps against the Ravens on Sunday. It was the fifth-overall pick's first action since he went down with the injury in Week 2. Davis' day was far from dominant (five targets, two catches, 28 yards), but the fact that he immediately returned as the team's No. 2 wide receiver is a good sign for his future performance. Rishard Matthews paced the team's wide receivers in the category with 42 snaps, though Davis actually ran a team-high 26 pass routes. Eric Decker (23 snaps) and Taywan Taylor (seven snaps) played reduced roles, and they are well off the fantasy radar. In his NFL debut back in Week 1 (his only other full game), Davis caught six of 10 targets for 69 yards. It's clear he is ticketed for a significant offensive role, which makes him a flex option with massive breakout upside. The Titans have struggled to score touchdowns, but they've been in scoring position a ton (23 field goal attempts ranks second in the NFL) and have scored an abnormally larger number of their touchdowns on the ground (NFL-high 59 percent).

Washington Redskins

With Jordan Reed sidelined, Vernon Davis racked up six catches for 72 yards on nine targets in Seattle. Davis was on the field for 45 of the team's 60 snaps, including 30 of 38 pass plays. Reed has missed two games and the better part of two others this season. During those weeks, Davis has produced 15 catches, 239 yards and one touchdown on 21 targets; he's the No. 7 scoring tight end those weeks and sits third during the two weeks Reed was out completely. If Reed misses more time, Davis will be a solid TE1 option.