Expect chip-ins by the dozen at Harbour Town
After a brilliant 2009 Masters, the PGA Tour makes a 100-mile drive from Augusta, Ga., to Pete Dye's Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. The host course for the Verizon Heritage is a 6,973-yard, par-71 public facility that averages more than 38,000 rounds a year -- quite a contrast from Augusta National, which has only about 300 members.
Golf Stats: The Numbers That MatterEvery golfer and golf fan knows the sport is a game of numbers. One of the most distinct characteristics of golf is that any player's efforts are summarized by an absolute and final statistic: the score. However, as any visitor to the 19th hole knows, the story of the game cannot be told in full by the tally at the end of the round. "Golf Stats: The Numbers That Matter" is your weekly source of insight into the numbers that make a difference in golf, focusing on the PGA Tour. Whether you're looking to wow your buddies in your Saturday foursome or get a little extra help for your fantasy team or are just a stats junkie, this blog is for you. Every week, this sliver of the Internet will be your one-stop shop for the unique and significant golf stats that best tell the stories beyond the scores.
Harbour Town is one of Dye's most famous courses, featuring a very tight design with exceptionally small greens; this puts a premium on accuracy, shot-making and scrambling rather than distance. This week the golf stats blog examines what skills are essential to victory in Hilton Head and details some of the standout records of the past winners here, including two-time defending champ Boo Weekley.
Week after week, the stats blog has been emphasizing GIR percentage as the key predictor of success on the PGA Tour. Because of the small greens this week, it's time to change that tune at Harbour Town.
For each of the past five years, Harbour Town has been in the top 10 of most difficult courses for hitting greens in regulation. The GIR average over this time is 55 percent, compared to the PGA Tour average of 64 percent. This gives Harbour Town an average rank of fifth most difficult in GIR out of roughly 50 courses over the past five years.
Because the field is hitting greens barely half the time, scrambling and timely putting take a slight precedence over ball striking at the Verizon Heritage. Here are some of the 2008 numbers from Harbour Town that help illustrate the small greens and reinforce the importance of scrambling.
Even when players had sand wedges in their hands at Harbour Town, they were hitting greens at a lower rate than the tour average from all distances (61.46 percent vs. 63.91 percent).
2008 courses with the lowest GIR % from 100 to 125 yards
|1||Harbour Town GL||61.46|
|2||TPC Four Seasons||63.04|
Because of the small green size, players often narrowly miss these greens. In 2008, that led to some chips that were very close to the hole, and the most hole-outs on tour. Ball striking and accuracy are still important, as near-misses of the green can result in birdies and easy pars at Harbour Town.
2008 courses with the shortest scrambling average distance to the hole
|1||The Classic Club||6' 9"|
|2||Magnolia GC||7' 0"|
|3||TPC Louisiana||7' 3"|
|4||Harbour Town GL||7' 4"|
|5||Bellerive CC||7' 8"|
2008 courses with the most hole-outs
|Rank||Course||No. of hole-outs|
|T-1||Harbour Town GL||83|
|3||TPC Deere Run||80|
|5||TPC Four Seasons||78|
Combine these short scrambling opportunities with the most hole-outs, and it is not surprising that Harbour Town had the fewest putts per round of any course on tour in 2008.
2008 courses with the lowest putts per round
|1||Harbour Town GL||27.67|
The Fantasy Foursomes
Let's use the above analysis, along with past champions and the hot players on tour, to put together this week's picks.
• Jim Furyk's opening round at the Masters last week was nearly flawless. He shot a bogey-free 66 and hit 18 of 18 greens in regulation. Furyk ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in scrambling, getting up and down 67.88 percent of the time. His last five starts here are equally impressive: 4th, MC, 2nd, 2nd and 10th.
• Justin Leonard won here in 2002 and has been very solid in 2009 with three top-10s in nine events. Leonard ranks 15th in scrambling at 64.94 percent. He has back-to-back top-25 finishes at Harbour Town.
Inside The NumbersWant more stats? Dive right in.
• PGA Tour money list
• FedEx Cup points list
• Official World Golf Rankings
• Driving distance
• Driving accuracy
• Greens in regulation
• Putting average
• Most top-10 finishes
• Sand-save percentage
• Birdies per round
• Total eagles
• Most cuts made
• PGA Tour schedule, results
• Weekley will be looking for his third consecutive win at the Verizon Heritage this week. If he claims it, he'll be the first player other than Tiger Woods to win an event three times in a row since Tom Watson won the HP Byron Nelson Championship from 1978 through 1980.
Last year Weekley had a much easier time defending than he did winning the first time in 2007. In 2008, Weekley won by three shots over Anthony Kim and Aaron Baddeley. In 2007, Boo chipped in for par on the 71st and 72nd holes to hold off Ernie Els by a single shot. Boo hasn't done much lately. He missed his first cut of the year at the Masters and has not finished in the top 50 in his last five starts. Still, Boo is fun to root for, and he's got a great thing going at Harbour Town.
• This has been a good year for rookies. Through the first 16 events of the season, seven rookies are among the top 125 on the FedEx Cup points list and would qualify for the FedEx Cup. Jeff Klauk (No. 36 on the money list) leads the way, followed by Scott Piercy (No. 44) and Webb Simpson (No. 49). The others are James Nitties, Bill Lunde, Aron Price and David Mathis. Klauk is a solid pick this week, as he has made nine of 10 cuts, including three top-25 finishes. He is fourth on the PGA Tour in scrambling at 67.8 percent.
• Tim Clark didn't shake the Par 3 Contest curse last week after failing to win the Masters, and he still has yet to notch a victory on tour. That has got to change soon as Clark's game remains solid. The South African -- who finished just outside the top 10 last week at Augusta -- has six top-25 finishes in eight starts and ranks 14th on tour in scrambling at 65.03 percent. The confidence from beating Tiger in the WGC-Match Play should result in a banner year.
• Davis Love III is another strong option this week. He has won here five times and is the event's all-time money leader, with over $2.5 million in earnings. He will turn 45 this week. Another former champion to watch this week is Aaron Baddeley. He has followed up his 2006 victory here with two top-10s, including a runner-up last year. Baddeley is fourth on tour in putting average, at 1.716.
• Who currently leads the PGA in scrambling? If you guessed "C" player Matt Kuchar at 72.25 percent, you are correct. The former amateur sensation is quietly playing very well this year with six of seven made cuts, including four top-25 finishes.
• Arguably the most talented young "C" player is Augusta, Ga., native Charles Howell III. He has two top-20 finishes in three starts here and is playing solid golf this year, with four top-25s. He's also made the cut nine out 10 times in 2009.
The Starters: Jim Furyk, Boo Weekley, Tim Clark, Matt Kuchar
Next in Line: Justin Leonard, Jeff Klauk, Aaron Baddeley, Charles Howell III
Send comments, suggestions and corrections to Nathan.J.Easler@espn.com.