College Basketball Bubble Watch
Butler's loss busts someone else's bubble
In addition to the Raiders, congrats are in order to North Texas (the Sun Belt champ) and Oral Roberts (which won the Mid-Con behind its pair of 2,000-point scorers, Caleb Green and Ken Tutt).
The bubble picture will start its final-stage clarification process today when the Big East kicks off action in New York City. After a couple of calm days, the picture will start changing very significantly from day to day as teams play their way in and out.
Here's the updated look at the bubble. Make sure to check out the bubble scoreboard each day for all the important games on one page.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (OUT OF 34) (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| Big East | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| Big Ten | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Big 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Pac-10 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC | 2* | 0 | 1 |
| MWC | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Other Locks | 1 | -- | 1 |
| TOTAL | 32 | 6 | 30 |
Also, Xavier from the A-10 looks very good for an at-large, if needed.
As it stands, it appears there are now only four at-larges left for those teams in the "work to do" pool, and that assumes that teams such as Memphis, Xavier and Nevada don't lose in their conference tournaments.
If I had to size up the pool of teams in the best position to grab those bids, it would be (in no order yet, as we'll wait for some of the major-conference action to unfold to make things less fluid):
Florida State, Illinois, Purdue, Kansas State, West Virginia, Old Dominion, Drexel and Missouri State.
The last three, as they already have finished play, will have very long waits and need to see how things develop elsewhere. ODU vs. Drexel could become the philosophical bubble debate of the year if it comes down to one slot.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: March 8)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |
| Teams that should be in: Work left to do:
| Locks
|
| Big 12 Conference | |
| Teams that should be in: Work left to do:
| Locks
|
| Big East Conference | |
| Teams that should be in: Work left to do:
| Locks
|
| Big Ten Conference | |
| Teams that should be in: Work left to do:
| Locks
|
| Pac-12 Conference | |
| Teams that should be in:
| Locks
|
| Southeastern Conference | |
| Work left to do:
| Locks
|
| Other at-large contenders | |
| Teams that should be in: Work left to do: Butler threw a wrench into someone's bubble plans, falling at Wright State in the Horizon League final and almost assuredly gobbling up an at-large at the expense of someone else. In the CAA, VCU's win opened the door for a more thorough Old Dominion vs. Drexel debate. I still think ODU has to be ahead in that comparison, as good as Drexel's nonconference play was. See below for more details on that. Xavier's looking more and more likely as an at-large team after claiming a share of the A-10 crown, and I'm starting to like UMass' profile a little better when I look around. I'm starting to take a longer look at the WAC, and like Fresno State's position the best of that bunch behind Nevada. New Mexico State's profile is pretty similar and the Aggies finished ahead of the Bulldogs, but Fresno swept NMSU and I don't think the host Aggies can afford another home loss. Memphis, BYU, UNLV and Nevada remain locks, along with aforementioned Butler. Beyond that, here's the best approximation of the teams that have a reasonable shot at an at-large bid at this point. Worth noting: There's no reasonable at-large candidate in the MAC (except, maybe, Akron) or C-USA (outside of Memphis). | Auto bids
Locks
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