Chances for a 2015-16 NCAA return

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ESPN's team of recruiting experts evaluate who's coming back, who's coming in, and the prospects for a return to the NCAA tournament. Click on a team link for a complete breakdown on each program.


Duke Blue Devils

Jahlil Okafor will almost certainly depart, Tyus Jones may opt for the NBA, and senior leader Quinn Cook exhausts his eligibility.

Louisville Cardinals

Wayne Blackshear departs and Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell both declared for the NBA draft, but three ESPN 100 standouts will help matters.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Virtually everyone is expected back for the Tar Heels, meaning expectations will be sky-high in Chapel Hill.

NC State Wolfpack

Guard Ralston Turner is the only significant departure, with the veteran backcourt of Cat Barber and Trevor Lacey back to lead.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Senior-led Irish will miss Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton, but will have enough offensive firepower to compete in the ACC.

Syracuse Orange (not eligible for postseason)

With NCAA penalties looming and Jim Boeheim announcing his eventual exit, uncertainty surrounds the Orange.

Virginia Cavaliers

Nearly everyone of consequence is expected back, making a run at what would be a third straight ACC regular season title a more than realistic pursuit.


Cincinnati Bearcats

All five starters are expected to return for Cincinnati, which should also get head coach Mick Cronin back on the sideline.

SMU Mustangs

Star recruit Shake Milton will combine with the returning Keith Frazier to keep the Mustangs relevant.

Atlantic 10

Davidson Wildcats

Wildcats lose A-10 player of the year Tyler Kalinoski, but Jack Gibbs and a solid supporting cast returns.

Dayton Flyers

Leading scorer Jordan Sibert is gone, but Archie Miller's Flyers return everybody else, and add some new pieces.

VCU Rams

Briante Weber and Treveon Graham depart along with head coach Shaka Smart, but two ESPN 100 prospects are scheduled to join the Rams.

Big East

Butler Bulldogs

Leading scorers Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones will both be back, and NC State transfer Tyler Lewis is the favorite to win the point guard job.

Georgetown Hoyas

Hoyas lose some size and experience up front, and the loss of top scorer D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera to the NBA really hurts.

Providence Friars

With LaDontae Henton departing and Kris Dunn a question mark to test the NBA, the Friars could take a hit.

St. John's Red Storm

A senior-dominated team could also lose Chris Obekpa and Rysheed Jordan to the pros, placing an NCAA return in question.

Villanova Wildcats

Darrun Hilliard and JayVaughn Pinkston are gone from Big East champs, but ESPN 100 point guard Jalen Brunson should have an impact.

Xavier Musketeers

Chris Mack's team will have to account for the departure of top scorer/rebounder Matt Stainbrook, and point guard Dee Davis.

Big Ten

Indiana Hoosiers

Hoosiers will have the most talent in the Big Ten if everyone returns, though the status of Yogi Ferrell and others is an open question.

Iowa Hawkeyes

With Aaron White leaving Iowa City, Fran McCaffery will need a group of newcomers to mesh with a solid crew of holdovers.

Maryland Terrapins

Terps will lose Dez Wells, but Melo Trimble and Jake Layman are expected back for what should again be a top-tier Big Ten squad.

Michigan State Spartans

Senior leaders Travis Trice and Branden Dawson depart, but Denzel Valentine returns and West Virginia transfer Eron Harris becomes eligible for what should be another strong MSU team.

Ohio State Buckeyes

D'Angelo Russell is nearly certain to depart to the NBA, but Thad Matta has a group of talented youngsters on their way to Columbus.

Purdue Boilermakers

Matt Painter will return six of his top seven scorers, unless A.J. Hammons defects to the NBA.

Wisconsin Badgers

Badgers will take a hit with departure of Frank Kaminsky and (likely) Sam Dekker, making it tough to repeat in the Big Ten.

Big 12

Baylor Bears

Bears will continue to be tough up front with Rico Gathers and Co., and backcourt reinforcements are coming.

Iowa State Cyclones

Bryce Dejean-Jones and Dustin Hogue depart, but a new fleet of transfers arrives for Fred Hoiberg's squad.

Kansas Jayhawks

Kelly Oubre is likely gone to the NBA and Cliff Alexander's status remains an open question, but the Jayhawks tend to reload.

Oklahoma Sooners

Impact big man TaShawn Thomas departs, but Big 12 player of the year Buddy Hield is expected to return to lead Lon Kruger's squad.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Three starters depart, and Travis Ford will need incoming point guard Jawun Evans to make a significant impact.

Texas Longhorns

Longhorns will lose Myles Turner, but Shaka Smarts has a chance to keep what was to arguably be the Big 12's top class intact.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Team leader and point guard Juwan Staten departs Morgantown, but a veteran core of players returns.

Missouri Valley

Northern Iowa Panthers

Three starters including star Seth Tuttle are gone, as is the Panthers' top reserve. Expectations will be lower for UNI in 2015-16.

Wichita State Shockers

Top rebounder Darius Carter and guard Tekele Cotton depart, but Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are scheduled to return in the backcourt.

Mountain West

San Diego State Aztecs

J.J. O'Brien and Dwayne Polee II have exhausted their eligibility, but Aztecs defense should be good enough to make Steve Fisher's team the Mountain West favorite.


Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats will lose point guard T.J. McConnell and could also suffer major NBA-related attrition, but four ESPN 100 recruits are on their way to Tucson.

Oregon Ducks

Joseph Young exits after winning Pac-12 player of the year honors, but two ESPN 100 guards -- Tyler Dorsey and Kendall Small -- arrive in Eugene.

UCLA Bruins

Bruins will lose the graduated Norman Powell and are expected to lose Kevon Looney, but should remain near the top of the Pac-12.

Utah Utes

Delon Wright will take his skills to the next level, and the NBA decision of Jakob Poetl will help determine where the Utes are picked next season.


Arkansas Razorbacks

Razorbacks could lose Bobby Portis to the NBA and will lose Rashad Madden to graduation, leaving Michael Qualls and a young but talented supporting cast to try to lead the team back to the tournament.

Georgia Bulldogs

Mark Fox's team will lose Marcus Thornton and Nemanja Djurisic up front, but brings in some quality talent including former UConn commit Will Jackson.

Kentucky Wildcats

Cats will lose a number of stars to the NBA, but another top-rated recruiting class is on its way to Lexington.

LSU Tigers

The Tigers had a potential top 10 team depleted by the declarations of Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey for the NBA. No. 1 recruit Ben Simmons does make his way to Baton Rouge, however.

Ole Miss Rebels

Stefan Moody is back for Andy Kennedy's team, but Moody will need a new backcourt mate following the departure of Jarvis Summers.


Gonzaga Bulldogs

Kevin Pangos and his four years worth of leadership are gone, but if Kyle Wiltjer returns, the Zags will remain a viable national threat.