2002 Season Preview

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Thursday, March 21
 
Houston Astros season preview

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2001 Record: 93-69, tied for 1st in NL Central, lost Division Series to Braves
2001 Results | 2002 Schedule | 2002 Roster | 2001 Statistics: Batting | Pitching
Offense (NL rank) Defense (NL rank)
847 runs (2nd)
Home: 440 runs (3rd)
Road: 407 (4th)
769 runs allowed (10th)
Home: 4.57 ERA (11th)
Road: 4.17 ERA (4th)
2001 Stats Leaders  
Average: M. Alou, L. Berkman .331
Runs: Bagwell, 126
On-base pct: Berkman, .430
Stolen bases: Julio Lugo, 12
Wins: Wade Miller, 16
Saves: Billy Wagner, 39
Home runs: Jeff Bagwell, 39
RBI: Bagwell, 130
Slugging pct.: Berkman, .620
OPS: Berkman, 1.051
ERA: Miller, 3.40
Strikeouts: Miller, 183

 ESPN's Take

Q: What will Jimy Williams do with the Astros that Larry Dierker didn't?
Larry Dierker's philosophy was to let the pros be pros -- if they wanted to hit and run, if they wanted to run on their own, Dierker would let them. He had a very hands-off managerial style, and it worked for him -- he won four division titles in five years; they just couldn't win in postseason. Jimy Williams will take back control of the game, telling the players to play and let him manage. Williams is very good at establishing who the boss is. He'll hope the players respond.
-- Dave Campbell


 Jayson Stark's Crystal Ball
Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller will win more games than Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder.



Do Astros fans miss Moises Alou? No way, because lefty slugger Daryle Ward has been waiting for his chance to put up major numbers. Ward isn't Lance Berkman, but he does have 30-homer power. Watch him score 100 runs if he bats second as well.

If you want saves, don't look at Octavio Dotel. But if you want a guy who had 145 K's and an ERA near Randy Johnson's, grab this guy. Dotel should manage to get a few wins since he throws so many innings and his K's match many starters.
-- Eric Karabell



Batting order
Craig Biggio, 2B
Daryle Ward, LF
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Lance Berkman, CF
Richard Hidaglo, RF
Morgan Ensberg, 3B
Brad Ausmus, C
Adam Everett, SS

Bench
Julio Lugo, Brian Hunter, Geoff Blum, Gregg Zaun, Jose Vizcaino, Orlando Merced
Rotation
Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Shane Reynolds, Carlos Hernandez, Dave Mlicki
Bullpen
Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, Nelson Cruz, Tim Redding, T.J. Mathews, Scott Linebrink




Chris Burke, SS-2B
A first-round pick last year out of Tennesse, Burke broke many of Todd Helton's records with the Vols. He hits, runs and walks; sounds a lot like Craig Biggio in the making.

Catcher: Brad Ausmus
Long praised for his defensive abilities, Ausmus finally won his first Gold Glove last year. He threw out 40 percent of baserunners (tied for fourth in NL). However, his bat remains anemic even for catchers, so new backup Gregg Zaun may get some playing time.

NL Position Ranking: 10th

First Base: Jeff Bagwell
In the offseason, it was revealed Bagwell played through shoulder problems and had surgery on a torn labrum. Despite that he still had 86 extra-base hits and finished fifth in the NL in runs and RBI. His OPS (965) was his lowest since 1995, but expect that to jump over 1.000 once again.

NL Position Ranking: 2nd

Second Base: Craig Biggio
At age 35, Biggio made a nice comeback from reconstructive knee surgery, hitting .292 with 20 HRs. Won't run much any more, but he posted eighth straight season with an OBP over .380 and thus scored 118 runs. His range at second has slipped, but remains one of baseball's best second basemen.

NL Position Ranking: 3rd

Third Base: Morgan Ensberg
The Astros made the right call in dumping veteran Vinny Castilla for the 26-year-old rookie. Ensberg had a .592 slugging percentage and .397 OBP in Triple-A. Those numbers should translate nicely as he's a Rookie of the Year candidate.

NL Position Ranking: 9th

Shortstop: Adam Everett
Will the Astros go with an all-rookie left side of the infield? Look for the slick-fielding Everett to start the year over Julio Lugo. Whether Everett will hit enough to keep the job remains to be seen, especially after a bad year at Triple-A.

NL Position Ranking: 12th

Left Field: Daryle Ward
After three years as a backup, Ward should finally get 500 plate appearances and improve on his career averages of .263/.310/.495. He's not a good outfielder, so Brian Hunter will be his defensive replacement.

NL Position Ranking: 11th

Center Field: Lance Berkman
Wow, not a bad year for playing regularly for the first time. Berkman had a .430 OBP (fifth in the NL), a .620 slugging mark (6th) and swatted 21 of his 34 HRs on the road. If he improves vs. left-handed pitchers (.308, but just 2 HRs in 120 at-bats) and plays an adequate center field, he's an MVP candidate.

NL Position Ranking: 2nd

Right Field: Richard Hidalgo
After a monster 2000 campaign, Hidalgo signed a four-year, $32 million camp and his numbers decreased significantly. His added weight and mediocre defense means he'll take his strong throwing arm to right field. Expect bigger numbers this season.

NL Position Ranking: 9th

No. 1 Starter: Roy Oswalt
Would the Astros' playoff results have been different if Oswalt hadn't injured his groin late in the season? The 6-foot right-hander showed a Cy Young future with a remarkable rookie season; a 2.73 ERA in the Astros' home park is amazing. Oswalt had 144 K's in 141.2 IP ... with only 24 walks.

NL Ranking among starters: 6th

No. 2 Starter: Wade Miller
Miller's first full season wasn't quite as dominant as Oswalt's, but he showed he can handle a 200-inning workload (212 IP). Miller's 2.88 road ERA was fifth-best in the NL. If he can serve up a few less HRs (31), his 3.40 overall ERA could go lower.

NL Ranking among starters: 11th

No. 3 Starter: Shane Reynolds
Reynolds doesn't have much velocity anymore and his strikeout dropped to just 5.0 per nine innings, the lowest of his career. He compensates with his great control. Like Miller, pitched very well on the road (3.28 ERA)

NL Ranking among starters: 28th

No. 4 Starter: Carlos Hernandez
Turns 22 in April and hasn't pitched above Double-A, but the Venezuelan lefty has been one of the most impressive pitchers in spring training. He fanned 167 in 139 innings at Double-A with a low-90s fastball and great curve. Only question is his durability, as he tips the scales at 150 pounds.

NL Ranking among starters: 40th

Bullpen: Octavio Dotel, Nelson Cruz, Tim Redding, T.J. Mathews
Led by the flamethrowing Dotel, the setup corps should be superb. Dotel started last year in the rotation, but once converted to relief posted a 1.93 ERA. He blew away hitters with 12.5 K's per nine and had the third-lowest opponents' OBP among NL relievers (only Felix Rodriguez and Robb Nen were better). Redding adds a young power arm and Cruz is a solid long guy. It appears closer Billy Wagner will be only lefty in the pen.

NL Position Ranking: 3rd

Closer: Billy Wagner
Wagner returned from elbow surgery and converted 39 of 41 saves. While he couldn't repeat his 1999 numbers (1.57 ERA, .135 average allowed), he was still near his career norms with a 2.73 ERA and .198 average allowed.

NL Position Ranking: 4th

Overall Power Index Rankings (NL rank):
Position: 7.25 (5th) | Pitching: 3.17 (3rd)

-- David Schoenfield





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