Editor's note: This file has been updated to include all games through Wednesday, March 12.
College Basketball Bubble Watch
Updated: March 13, 2008, 3:43 PM ETBy Andy Glockner | ESPN.com
Is Kentucky really worthy of dancing?
Ahead of the bubble madness that will unfold today and tomorrow, it seems like a good time for an update on the cut line.Counting all the locks and at-larges, and assuming no surprise tourney champ emerges from a major conference, there appear to be 26 at-large spots filled, leaving eight available. That number will decline if Xavier, Memphis and BYU/UNLV don't win their respective automatic bids. For those eight remaining at-large bids, there appear to be 22 teams realistically with a chance, but not all profiles are created equal. The current tiering of those teams (in no particular order yet) would look something like this: Tier A (in relatively good shape today): Arizona, Kentucky, UMass, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Tier B (right on the cut line): Dayton, Illinois State, Ole Miss, UAB, Ohio State, Villanova, Oregon, Arizona State, New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, VCU
Tier C (long shots): Virginia Tech, Temple, Florida, Houston, Maryland, Florida State If you believe the breakdowns, three of the teams from Tier B would make it, so you can see how crucial the next couple of days will be. A few observations:
• Arizona has 10 Top 100 wins, which is three more than any other team on those lists, other than Dayton and Florida State.
• Dayton and Ole Miss have profiles that are much better than most think, despite long swoons in league play. Both clubs won their last three regular-season league games, and if they get to their respective tourney semis (one win for Dayton and two for Ole Miss), will deserve very long looks.
• It's going to be really hard for Illinois State and/or VCU to hold on as teams around them win games.
• Kentucky's profile isn't the mortal lock many Cats fans believe it is. In fact, it isn't clear that the Wildcats should even be in Tier A. Let's play a quick game of blind profile:
|Kentucky vs. Team B|
|RPI||SOS||R/N||Top 50||Top 100|
Next update: Friday, March 14.