After a day full of big breaks for bubble teams, the final bubble game of Championship Week has cost someone a trip to the Dance.
Utah State pushed its way into the field of 65 by finally downing nemesis Pacific, meaning the Big West now will get two bids instead of one.
Knowing that, here's how we see things 16 hours before all the selections are announced:
Before the Big West bummer, Saturday was a very good day for bubble teams, as they got almost every break possible. Even New Mexico beating Utah didn't really do too much damage, as it appeared to us that the Lobos would likely have made it even with a loss.
UTEP helped the bubbleites, not allowing Boise State to snag a bid and throw the Miners into the at-large pool. Earlier, George Washington downed Saint Joseph's to land the A-10 bid and leave the league with the weaker of the two at-large candidates. While NC State and Iowa appear to have done enough, they both lost as well.
The day games also broke favorably -- barely, in the case of Memphis. Down by two, Tigers star freshman Darius Washington was fouled shooting a 3-pointer as time expired. After making the first free throw, he missed the final two, giving Louisville the title by a point and knocking out Memphis. Earlier, quasi-bubble team Vermont ripped Northeastern to take the America East crown.
The greatest surprise of all of this? Several marquee names written off in the last few days may not be dead in the hunt for an at-large.
So what does this leave us with?
Here is our latest assessment of the projected locks and bubble teams through games on March 12. If a conference isn't represented, it means it's likely a one-bid league.
Records are D-I only. RPI and SOS are as of March 12.
See ESPN.com's InsideRPI for daily RPI and SOS rankings.
(Note: Bubble Watch will be updated daily through Selection Sunday)
Andy Glockner is the men's college basketball editor at ESPN.com. E-mail him with comments.