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| 15. UCLA |
LAST YEAR: 21-12 |
'99-00 RANK: #23 |
 Why No. 15?: OK, so the Bruins lost Jerome Moiso and JaRon Rush from last season's team. But Rush was only a factor the last few games of the season and in the NCAA Tournament. UCLA still has its nucleus and should challenge for a top-three Pac-10 finish and another deep NCAA Tournament run. Jason Kapono returned to school and becomes one of the best stop-and-pop shooters in the country. Steve Lavin's free-wheeling system allows Kapono plenty of looks. He'll get them next to one of the most improved point guards over the past three years in Earl Watson. Dan Gadzuric continues to be a work in progress, but when he's on, his activity around the basket is tough to match. Matt Barnes and Ray Young provide plenty of support. They've been erratic but have the talent to keep the pressure off Kapono and Gadzuric. The Bruins are deep again with expected contributions coming from freshman T.J. Cummings and Josiah Johnson up front. Rico Hines has been one of the more versatile reserves and Lavin expects late pickup Ryan Walcott to be a better fit behind Watson than converted point guard Ryan Bailey.
Will Climb If: The Bruins can avoid a swoon. The schedule is once again set up for UCLA to load up on non-conference wins early in the season after the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament. UCLA doesn't catch a break by drawing Kansas in the tournament, but can escape with decent pub by beating Kentucky or St. John's on the second night. Hosting North Carolina gives the Bruins another shot to earn the nation's respect. If the freshmen can replace Moiso in the post then UCLA can seriously challenge Stanford for second in the Pac-10.
Will Fall If: The Bruins get swept in New York, lose at Purdue and can't hold serve against the Tar Heels and/or Arizona and Stanford at Pauley Pavilion. Lavin has been a February and March coach the past few seasons, but this team's collective psyche can't afford another tumultuous December and January.
Bilas Breakdown | HTV's Take | Team Page
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"You can't be serious about UCLA. They lost their best players, and the coach believes that you don't need a system, just emotion. Sure momentum works in tournaments, but what about the other 30-plus games?"
Pete Tolk, Weehawken, N.J.
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