With only two weeks of the regular season remaining, the NFL playoff picture has really come into focus. Five teams have clinched their spots, and six other teams have better than a 70 percent chance to do the same. Most of the intrigue at this point revolves around the last AFC wild-card spot.
Unfortunately, the 2017 season sets up for a very poor Week 17. It's unlikely we're going to get a game in the final week that comes down to a simple "winner goes on, loser goes home" setup. More likely, we're going to have games where one team will be playing for seeding and the other for the right to continue its season. Only three games in Week 17 feature two teams that currently have playoff chances over 10 percent: Carolina at Atlanta, Dallas at Philadelphia, and Jacksonville at Tennessee.
Once we get to this point, analyzing postseason chances isn't just about figuring out which teams have the best chance to make it into January. It's also about figuring out which teams have the best chance to make it into February and Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis. We look at all of these with the Football Outsiders playoff chances simulation, simulating the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. That produces playoff chances and Super Bowl chances for all 32 teams, as listed below. For a full explanation of how we calculate each team's playoff chances, click here.
Our current top six teams in each conference are listed in order by Super Bowl chances; other contenders are listed in order of playoff chances.