Almost seven years ago, I first wrote that I thought it was possible/plausible that Alex Ovechkin could one day pass Wayne Gretzky's 894 career goals total, which was previously thought to be unreachable. Ovechkin was 24 at the time.
Ovechkin was at ESPN to film his "This Is SportsCenter" Russian spy spot in late 2009, and I asked him about the possibility of catching Gretzky. He was surprised at the question and didn't know what to say. I don't think he had been asked about it before, which is understandable. I also think he was nervous about working with Steve Levy (he's only human), and he was a tad rattled.
Ovechkin told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet in Canada in September about the possibility of passing Gretzky's total: "In this hockey right now, in this league, I think it's impossible. I don't think somebody will beat this record."
Back in that January 2010 blogumn, I projected Ovechkin would finish with 51 goals in the 2009-10 season. He finished with 50. That gave him 269 goals through that 2009-10 season. So, back in early 2010, I laid out a blueprint for Ovechkin to reach 895 career goals, one better than Gretzky's record.
The first part of my hypothesis was that Ovechkin would have to be largely injury-free and play until he was 40. Also, as I wrote back in 2010, "Players who have booming shots age slower in terms of goal totals. So does playing on good teams."
Except for Ovechkin's first two seasons (both of which were exactly 70-point seasons for the Washington Capitals), his teams have been good. And remember, Jaromir Jagr turns 45 in February. Ovechkin, like Jagr, has a giant butt and good genes and, so far, good luck with health.
So what follows are my Ovechkin goal projections and his age (conjunction junction) at the time I wrote them in 2010. Included are comments from 2010 in parentheses and updated comments, along with a running tab on how the projection is going against 894.
Ovechkin was at 269 career goals when I began the following theory:
Age -- Projected goals total
25 -- 71
(Comment from 2010: He's got to have one more monster year.)
Ovechkin would go on to have his worst season to date: 32 goals in 79 games. The projection is now a minus-39 against the 894 projection! As I wrote then, now he needs a monster season.
26 -- 66
Another down year: Ovechkin had 38 goals in 78 games. I'm now a minus-67 against the projection. Maybe this wasn't such a good idea.
27 -- 60
Lockout. A really good season for Ovechkin that will cost him about 20 goals in his career total. Ovechkin had 32 goals in 48 games, a 50-goal-plus pace. He's now a minus-95.
28 -- 51
I had this season right on the money. Ovechkin scored 51 goals in his 28-year-old season and won his fourth Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals in the league.
29 -- 55
Close again. I had him with 55 five years into the future, and Ovechkin posted 53 to win his fifth Rocket Richard Trophy. He's now minus-97 against the 894 projection.
30 -- 48
(From 2010: Gretzky's last 40-goal season -- 41 goals -- was at age 30.)
In his 30-year-old season, which was last year, Ovechkin hit the 50-goal mark for the third straight season, his fourth straight Rocket Richard Trophy and sixth overall. He's minus-95 against the projection.
Once Gretzky hit 30, his shots per game, and thus his goals per game, dropped considerably. After Gretzky's first full season as a 30-year-old (1991-92), he didn't score 40 goals again and had just two 30-goal seasons. I don't think Ovechkin will have the same erosion.
31 -- 52
This is the current season. Ovechkin is off to a pretty good start. He could hit my 52-goal projection, but his pace is just a little under 50 goals. One concern is that Capitals coach Barry Trotz is starting to manage No. 8's minutes, which has dropped Ovechkin's shots per game average, the most important statistic for scoring goals. This is the second-lowest season for shots on goal for Ovechkin.
So, although my 52 this season is still possible, let's go conservative and give Ovechkin 45 goals. That would leave him with 570 career goals as he finishes his 31-year-old season. That means, after this season, Ovechkin would need 325 goals to pass Gretzky's record of 894.
Let's stay with the projections from 2010 that I made for the next nine seasons and see where that gets us for Ovi:
32 -- 45
Forty-five goals next season does not seem outlandish. This still seems plausible. The Capitals are blessed with talented centers to set up Ovechkin. Although, with approaching salary-cap concerns, they could see a scoring drop-off as a team.
33 -- 55
This might be a little bullish, but it is the final season I have Ovechkin with a 50-goal-plus season, and it is only two years away. Some years, as we are seeing with Sidney Crosby this season, everything can go your way when it comes to scoring. Having one more big season from Ovechkin would help his chances.
34 -- 40
(From 2010: Steve Yzerman had his last 30-goal season at age 34, when he had 35 goals.)
I have Ovechkin's goal erosion beginning three years from now, during his 34-year-old season. I am curious if, at any point in the coming years, Ovechkin will try to play 15 pounds lighter to counter losing speed in a league going almost exclusively with players who can wheel.
Also, will he start a family, which possibly changes his priorities? Jagr has married hockey, and his myopic dedication has kept him producing into his mid-40s. If Ovechkin is going to break Gretzky's record, he needs to keep that childlike enthusiasm he has brought to the game since he first arrived.
35 -- 37
This would be Ovechkin's first season without at least 40 goals (in a full season) in nine years.
36 -- 32
This would tie Ovechkin's career-low for goals, which he had in his 25-year-old season.
37 -- 40
(From 2010: Phil Esposito and Brendan Shanahan both had 40-goal seasons at age 37)
Another factor in the coming years to consider is how expansion could help Ovechkin. Bobby Orr and Gretzky benefited from expansion. In Orr's first seven seasons, the NHL went from six teams to 12, to 14, to 16, constantly spreading out the talent. The NHL went from 17 teams to 21 teams for Gretzky's rookie season.
Expansion spreads talent out and usually creates weaker teams, which helps offense, if the rulebook is called as stated. The Vegas Golden Knights will make their debut in 2017-18 as the NHL's 31st team, and more is expansion coming. Perhaps Ovechkin can benefit from the first expansion he has experienced in the NHL. It has been a 30-team league since he arrived in 2005.
38 -- 32
(From 2010: Brett Hull had 37 goals at age 38.)
I feel Hull, Esposito and Shanahan (and Jagr, from a body standpoint) are decent comparables to Ovechkin. Thick bodies, and in Hull's and Shanahan's case, a big shot that age doesn't diminish as much as it does speed.
39 -- 28
Mark Recchi scored 18 goals as a 41-year-old, so 28 goals in Ovechkin's 39-year-old season is doable.
40 -- 27
Here we arrive at 40 years old.
These projections over nine seasons seem rather reasonable to me, using historical precedents of players with similar attributes. Of course, multiple events can change things. But, after this season, I have projected Ovechkin with only one more 50-goal season, and four 40-plus seasons (two of them with exactly 40).
What total do we get when we add up these nine years of projections? 336 goals. Add that to his 570 goals we projected after a 45-goal season this year, and that gives Ovechkin 906. Good lord, that's a lot of goals.
We could lop off 11 goals from that projected 55-goal season I projected in two years at age 33 and make it a 44-goal season. Even after doing that, Ovechkin still gets to 895.
Ovechkin can get to 895 in nine years without another 50-goal season, or even a 40-goal season. Ovechkin needs to average 36 goals a season over the next nine, assuming he gets to 45 goals this season.
The insurance for Ovechkin on breaking Gretzky's record is that if he is short of the 894 mark after the next nine full seasons, he has time in his 40s to break the record if he is close and has the appetite and health to eclipse it.
With a dedication to fitness, diet and making the proper adjustments (hanging out closer to the net), Ovechkin could add two to three seasons, play until he is 43 (Chris Chelios played until he was 48) and score another 40-50 goals.
Is it still a long shot? Ovechkin will get his 600th career goal next season, when he is 32. He'll likely get his 700th goal when he is 35, and he should get 800 by 38 or 39. If he can get to 800 by 39, then four more years should get him 95 more goals.
It would be a fascinating time. Arguably the greatest record chase in the history of the NHL, similar in stature and, somewhat, in tone to Hank Aaron chasing Babe Ruth. The Russian bear chasing Canadian royalty.
We will be watching. Goals are fun.