So I get it down to four that could win, four that should win, and three that might win, and now this: the possibility of a floating track bias.
Half a chance of rain is predicted to and through the Derby weekend in Louisville.
Rain here and there can make a bias change during a race.
Here is the field inside-out by post position, reasons for and opposed.
Reasons For: Well, huge price. Direct route.
Against: Too late.
For: Same as above.
Against: Similar to above; only later.
3. Keyed Entry
For: Beat First Samurai. Was chalk in Wood. Better than any lousy 30-1.
Against: Under the avalanche, between a rock and a harder place, bad post. Might have to hustle too much.
4. Sinister Minister
For: No trouble up there.
Against: One-trick pony.
5. Point Determined
For: Improving with increased distances. Lightly raced. Perfect stalking style. Position A in post.
Against: Trendy pick among tube all-stars. Never discount Curse of the Experts.
6. Showing up
For: Under the radar.
Against: Barely hard of those it vanquished.
7. Bob and John
For: Consistent stalker.
Against: Owner passed on Reggie Bush.
For: Has guts. Familiar with crowds. Lightly raced. Should fit well in hurricane’s eye, between speeders and closers.
Against: Southeast circuit not so frightening. Only third on dirt. Trained for fox hunt circuit? Off five weeks after being off eight weeks.
9. Sharp Humor
Against: Too quick.
10. A.P. Warrior
For: Almost ran over Brother Derek at a mile and a sixteenth.
Against: Record of 0-3 versus Derek.
For: Four straight Beyers in the hundreds.
Against: Hasn’t beaten much. Another trendy pick.
12. Private Vow
For: Has win at the Church.
Against: Couldn’t scare Ron.
13. Bluegrass Cat
Against: Last two quirky.
14. Deputy Glitters
For: Fits with the 13 horse.
Against: Fits with the 13.
15. Seaside Retreat
16. Cause to Believe
For: Serious about closing.
Against: Six wins only produced $390,000.
17. Lawyer Ron
For: Flexible. Has the most impressive power move in the field. Discounted by so-called racing elite.
Against: Headstrong. Seen better posts. Finishes casually.
18. Brother Derek
For: Beat lots of these. Far-out post puts him in stalking mode.
Against: No yawning lead here. There are more horses in this race than BD faced in his last three, total.
19. Storm Treasure
Against: Maiden winner.
20. Flashy Bull
For: Room to his right.
Against: Best Beyer puts him in second half.
All-purpose, multi-faced, potpourri box featuring selections from speed, stalking and closing categories: Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, Keyed Entry.
2. Point Determined
3. Keyed Entry
Kentucky Derby television coverage begins Saturday, May 6 at 5 p.m. ET on NBC Sports.