Swansea City makes the big jump up

May, 31, 2011

By winning the Championship playoff final Monday, Swansea City has secured promotion to the Premier League, and the $60 million in TV revenue that comes along with it for next season. So how long can the Swans, along with Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City, expect to remain in the Premier League? How soon can the three teams relegated this year expect to come back up? Let's take a look at some numbers.

• Of the 58 teams that have been relegated since the 1992-93 season (there were four in 1994-95), 26 of them were newly promoted to the Premier League that same season (44.8 percent). Of those 26 teams, 14 secured automatic promotion, while 12 were playoff winners. So while newly promoted teams have had trouble staying up, Swansea City is not at an additional disadvantage.

• Not including the three teams from this season, 46 of the promoted teams over that time span have been relegated back to the Championship. Of those teams, it has taken an average of 2.8 seasons before a newly promoted team gets sent back down. When including the teams that are still in the Premier League, the average goes up to 3.3 seasons.

• Bouncing back from relegation right away does not happen nearly as often as going straight back down. Only 15 of the promoted teams since the 1992 season secured promotion the year immediately after their relegation from the Premier League, and it has taken an average of 4.8 seasons before a relegated team has returned to the Premiership. But removing the clubs that have not yet made it back to the Premier League, it has taken the remaining 33 teams an average of 3.2 seasons to return.

• The seemingly short average time span is due in large part to the 15 teams that bounced back to the Premier League the very next season, and the seven teams that have come back within two seasons of being relegated. In fact, of those 33 teams that have made it back, only six were down for longer than five seasons, a list that includes the two teams that automatically qualified this season. Queens Park Rangers have not been a part of the Premier League since the 1995-96 campaign, and Norwich City has not been in the top flight since the 2004-05 season.

• One last aspect is a trend that has emerged since 2006-07, when the EPL started giving out "parachute payments" -- a small portion of the TV revenue -- to the relegated teams. Of the teams relegated since then, the three teams that have found their way back up all did it in the season immediately after their relegation. Any team relegated since then that did not come back up immediately has still not returned. While this is a small length of time to use as a sample, it is an interesting pattern to keep an eye on.



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