Final day for Euro 2012 qualifying

October, 10, 2011
10/10/11
4:38
PM ET

Five automatic berths are up for grabs as Euro 2012 Qualifying enters the final day of group play Tuesday, with four group titles and the best runner-up spot still to be determined. Only two groups have been decided entirely, with England and Montenegro finishing atop Group G and Netherlands and Sweden going one-two in Group E, though Sweden is still playing for the top runner-up berth. The other eight runners-up will advance to next month's playoffs, the matchups for which will be determined Thursday.

Here are scenarios and Soccer Power Index simulations for the remaining berths.

Group A
Standings: Germany has clinched the group. Belgium leads Turkey by one point for runner-up spot.
Scenarios: To finish runner-up, Belgium must better or equal Turkey's result. Turkey must better Belgium's result.
SPI odds: Belgium faces the 9-0-0 Germans on the road, and Turkey hosts Azerbaijan, which has a minus-15 goal difference. Belgium has only a 1.6 percent chance to win and a 10.8 percent chance to draw while Turkey has 86.9 percent chance to win. Putting the numbers together, Turkey is an overwhelming 94.9 percent favorite to finish second in the group.

Group B
Standings: Russia leads second-place Ireland by two points and third-place Armenia by three points.
Scenarios: To capture Group B, Russia needs one point at home against Andorra or an Ireland draw or loss. Ireland needs a home win or draw versus Armenia to finish runner-up. Armenia must win in Dublin to advance.
SPI odds: SPI gives the Russians a 99.8 percent chance of winning the group, with Ireland picking up the remaining 0.2 percent of simulations. Ireland has a 91.1 percent chance of finishing runner-up.

Group C
Standings: Italy has clinched the group. Second-place Estonia leads third-place Serbia by one point and holds the tiebreaker. Estonia has completed its schedule, while Serbia has one match to play.
Scenarios: Serbia must win at Slovenia to finish in second place. Otherwise, Estonia goes through to the playoffs.
SPI odds: Serbia has a 22.9 percent chance of winning at Slovenia and finishing runner-up.

Group D
Standings: France leads the group by one point over Bosnia-Herzegovina. The two countries have clinched the top two spots and face off at Stade de France on Tuesday.
Scenarios: France needs a win or draw to clinch the group, while Bosnia-Herzegovina must win.
SPI odds: France is 89.3 percent to win or draw at home.

Group E
Standings: Netherlands and Sweden have clinched first and second in this group, respectively.
Scenarios: Sweden can clinch an automatic berth to the Euros as the best runner-up with a win against the Dutch on Tuesday. At worst, Sweden will likely enter the playoff round as one of the seeded nations.
SPI odds: Sweden has 32.4 percent chance of defeating Netherlands in Stockholm, assuming a full squad for both teams.

Group F
Standings: Greece leads the group by two points over Croatia. The two countries have clinched the top two spots.
Scenarios: Greece wins the group with a win/draw at Georgia or if Croatia does not defeat Latvia at home.
SPI odds: Greece is a 67.6 percent favorite to win or draw at Georgia and a 74.4 percent favorite to win the group.

Group H
Standings: Portugal and Denmark are level on points and lead the group. Norway is three points back.
Scenarios: For Norway to advance, it must win and Denmark must defeat Portugal and Norway must make up a goal difference of at least nine against Portugal. Otherwise, Portugal and Denmark finish as the top two. Portugal wins the group with a win or draw. Denmark takes the group with a win. The Danes are also still in contention for clinching the best runner-up spot with a tie and a Sweden draw or loss. Portugal and Denmark are both automatically through with a Sweden loss and a Croatia draw or loss.
SPI odds: Portugal has a 71.0 percent chance of winning the group, and Denmark has a 29.0 percent chance. In 10,000 simulations, Norway never advanced.

Group I
Standings: Spain has clinched the group. Scotland leads Czech Republic by one point for the runner-up spot, with Czech Republic holding the tiebreaker.
Scenarios: The Czechs will advance with a win at Lithuania and a Scotland draw or loss at Spain. Czech Republic also advances with a draw and a Scotland loss.
>SPI odds: Czech Republic finishes in second in 58.2 percent of simulations, to Scotland's 41.8 percent.

Paul Carr

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