El Clasico breakdown

April, 18, 2012

Buckle your seat belt for the second league Clasico of the season, as Real Madrid brings a four-point La Liga lead into Camp Nou on Saturday (2 p.m. ET, live on ESPN3 & ESPN Deportes). Bayern Munich snapped Real Madrid's 20-game unbeaten streak on Tuesday, but Jose Mourinho's side is still the odds-on favorite for the domestic crown.

Here are the numbers you need to know for Saturday's showdown.

• According to ESPN's Soccer Power Index, Barcelona is a 50.6 percent favorite to win this match, and Real Madrid has a 29.3 percent chance to win. The teams have nearly identical ratings, but Barcelona gains its significant advantage because the game is at home.

• SPI projects Real Madrid as an 82.0 percent favorite to win the league title. A Barcelona victory would reduce Madrid's edge to 61.8 percent, but a positive result for Real would essentially ice the championship; Los Merengues would then have a seven-point lead with four games remaining and be a 99.2 percent favorite to lift the trophy. A draw would hurt Barcelona the most, upping Madrid's title odds to 91.4 percent.

• In case you haven't been paying attention, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi are in a riveting chase of their own. Each has scored 41 league goals this season, breaking the record of 40 set by Ronaldo last season. Because he's played one fewer game, Messi has been slightly more efficient, scoring 1.31 goals per 90 minutes of playing time compared to Ronaldo's 1.27 goals per 90 minutes.

• Barcelona is unbeaten in its past seven league games against Real Madrid, going 6-0-1 since Pep Guardiola became coach in 2008. In 14 games versus Madrid across all competitions, Guardiola is 9-1-4, losing only last season's Copa del Rey final.

• The supremacy of Real Madrid and Barcelona is evident in the standings, where third-place Valencia trails second-place Barcelona by 29 points. The dominance is also reflected in the passing charts, where Xavi unsurprisingly leads all players with 2,536 completed passes, 237 more than second-place Xabi Alonso. Dani Alves is next, another 212 passes behind, while Villarreal's Bruno is the only other player who has more than 1,800 passes completed, with 2,074.

Paul Carr

Stats & Information



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