Chat with Mel Kiper
Send your questions now and join Mel this Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET!
Buzzmaster (1:03 PM)
We're getting Mel right now! Send in your questions!
Mel Kiper (1:05 PM)
I got an all new ratings and analysis. The projections of the first four rounds are complete. We can get into all the reasons why things are changing.
Robin: Hayward, CA
Is there a reason why Jamaal Anderson has been dropping down in the draft?
Mel Kiper (1:07 PM)
The thing with Jamaal is, he's big, 6-5, 285 pounds. He ran in the 4.8 range. He did show he does have some quickness. He had a very productive year. I think the thing with him is if Washington is trading off of 6, it's where does Gaines Adams fall? He's the best DE. But who's the second one? Carriker or Anderson? If Anderson wins that battle, he would be in the mix for Atlanta at 8, St. Louis at 13 and Denver at 21. There's a wide range of where he's going to go.
Glen - Ohio
Does Henry's suspension change at all the Bengals draft board on the first day?
Mel Kiper (1:08 PM)
This was something that really affects their draft philosophy going in. Their defined needs are set. They'll go with a CB. Their philosophy will change in regards to character. At least it should be. What they've been trying to do in the draft is find those guys in the third or fourth round that are talented enough to be first rounders, but they had issues and dropped to the third or fourth. Those days are over for the Bengals. Or at least they should be. If a guy falls due to an off-the-field issue, I doubt the Bengals will go for him.
If Peterson isn't picked by Cleveland at #3, how far could he fall?
Mel Kiper (1:10 PM)
He is projected to go by my rankings to Minnesota at 7. They have Chester Taylor, who is a solid back, but Peterson is an upgrade. You can use two good running backs very easily. To me, Minnesota is a possibility or even Houston at 10. That's if he gets past that third pick, which is possible, because I have Quinn going to Cleveland. But the other question is how far does Brady Quinn potentially drop? He could go to Minnesota or 9 to Miami. I don't think he'll fall, but he could.
Robert - Las Vegas
How much does the suspension of Pacman Jones affect the potential trading of Michael Turner to the Titans?
Mel Kiper (1:12 PM)
Well, Tennessee goes into this draft with CB as an area that was identified. If you're and organization, you have to anticipate that could be a need. They have a lot of need areas that they need to address. I don't think it will be a stronger issue than before, because there are 3 or 4 other positions that they need to address. Also, you can't force a pick at a position. Teams draft for need, but you don't have to force it. You don't just have one need, you have multiple needs.
Hey Mel, Where do you feel that Washington State University Wide Receiver Jason Hill will be going?
Mel Kiper (1:13 PM)
I think Jason's going to be a late 2 or early 3. If he's a late second, if San Diego doesn't go after a WR in the first, they could look at him. He could be looking at Oakland or Detroit with the first couple of picks in the third.
Ryan (Binghamton, NY)
I would like to see the Cowboys address a struggling pass rush with someone like Adam Carriker. Is there any change that he would be available and the Cowboys would consider taking him?
Mel Kiper (1:15 PM)
I don't think he'll be available. He's the kind of guy that could go 13 to St. Louis, or Denver at 21. He's a 3-4 or 4-3 DE or a 4-3 DT. He's versatile. I think the Cowboys at 22 might look WR and then in the second round they could look at a DT. For the first round, they could be looking at Jarrett, Meachem or Bowe.
Matt : Two Harbors
Who is the best kick returning specialist in this years Draft?
Mel Kiper (1:17 PM)
There are a couple of guys. Ted Ginn is the best kick returner. Florida found that out right off the bat. Some other guys that fall into that category, Dennis Mitchell, a CB/KR out of Western Kentucky. He runs a 4.5 40. He's only 5-8. Steve Breaston out of Michigan has an awful lot of ability in that area. Ryne Robinson out of Miami (OH), Syndric Steptoe out of Arizona are also some return men worth looking at.
Don: (Anniston, Alabama)
What highly hyped player do you see being a bust in the big leagues?
Mel Kiper (1:21 PM)
Overhyped is tough to say, but I can give you some guys that are overrated. Guys that are overrated are Alan Branch from Michigan. Chris Houston from Arkansas. Aaron Rouse, S from Virginia Tech. Jonathan Wade from Tennessee. Scott Chandler, TE from Iowa. Allen Barbre. Brandon Meriweather, S from Miami.
Dave, Cleveland Ohio
Mel, Looking at the past 3 years drafts, which 3 NFL teams have drafted the best?
Mel Kiper (1:24 PM)
We'll go back to last year. The Chicago Bears had one of the best drafts. Manning, Hester, Anderson helped them. Baltimore Ravens did well last year. Indianapolis - they got Addai early and Bethea late in the draft in the sixth who really helped them win the Super Bowl. New Orleans Saints, getting Reggie Bush, Evans, Colston. New York Jets had a nice draft. They got two cornerstones in Ferguson and Mangold for the o-line.
Hi Mel, The Pats have two first round picks. Who do you think they will go after. Thanks
Mel Kiper (1:25 PM)
They draft really smart, intelligent, versatile players. That's why I'm looking at Paul Posluszny, Michael Griffin. If they can do that, they address the secondary and linebacker needs.
Greg - Haymarket, VA
Should the Bills try to trade up for Adrian Peterson if he slips past Cleveland?
Mel Kiper (1:26 PM)
Yeah, I think they could. They're a team that's desperate for a RB. If he starts slipping, to move 12 to 7 or 12 to 8 or 9, yeah, the could make a move for him. Houston at 10 would take a look at him. Buffalo has to come out of this draft with a RB. Keep in mind Buffalo got Thurman Thomas in the second round. There will be some good second round RBs this year too.
Paul (Dusseldorf, Germany)
Which organizations will be looking closely at John Beck or Drew Stanton?
Mel Kiper (1:27 PM)
I think Stanton could end up at Philadelphia in the second round. Miami has an extra second round pick at No. 60, so that's where Beck might go.
Hi Mel, With questions surrounding Marshawn Lynch, where do you see him going?
Mel Kiper (1:28 PM)
He's right where he was expected to be. He runs hard, with power. He gets a lot of yards after initial contact. He's not that dynamic, but he picks up a lot of yards. If he's there at 16, that would be a nice fit for Green Bay.
C.Alex (silver spring,MD)
In your latest draft board, you have Laron Landry going to the Skins @#6. Is he a good complement to Sean Taylor or too similiar of a safety?
Mel Kiper (1:29 PM)
Most teams don't use a free and a strong safety any more. If Landry is the best defensive player at that point, they have a need in that area. Obviously, Atlanta at 8 is the ideal fit for Landry. I don't think Washington will stay at 6. I think they're trading off of 6.
Mark Chicago, IL
Who do you think the Bears go after with their 1 & 2? Do you think they address DT with Tank Johnson looming suspension?
Mel Kiper (1:31 PM)
That's an option they have with DT. If you take a look at Chicago in the first round, WR. They went heavy defense last year. I don't think they'll do that again. WR, maybe a Steve Smith or Jarrett, if he's still on the board. Then they have an early second rounder and they pick 37. Zach Miller would be a possibility at TE. If they trade Briggs, they'll have another need at LB.
Josh Cleveland, OH
Mel, what do you see the Browns doing now that I am hearing reports that they may have cooled on Peterson? Is this just typical draft smokescreens or are they thinking of going in a different direction?
Mel Kiper (1:33 PM)
I don't think cooling's a word. You can't take three players with one pick. You can't draft Thomas, Quinn and Peterson. You'd like to have all three, but you have to pick one. But Cleveland might look at offers for the pick. In my mind, it gets down to Quinn and Peterson. Ultimately, if they keep the pick, I think Quinn has a chance to be a Brown. They've had injury after injury on the draft front.
Kevin (Rutgers University, New Jersey)
Hey Mel, a lot of us here at Rutgers are wondering what is the general consensus on Brian Leonard? Also, Who do you think will draft him and when? Thanks.
Mel Kiper (1:34 PM)
Well, I think he'll be a heckuva second round pick. He's more than just a fullback. He can be a running back. He can be an H-back. He can be a moved TE. I hope I make a lot of Giants fans happy, if he's there at 51, I hope they take him. That would help out Eli Manning a lot. I think he'd be a great pick for them in the second round.
Daniel (Chapel Hill, NC)
What do you see the Panther's doing in the back-end rounds of day 1 now that they have Carr at backup QB?
Mel Kiper (1:36 PM)
They're picking in the middle of the first round. At No. 14, Greg Olsen, TE from Miami. He'd be a great help to Delhomme. Second round, they need a safety - Brandon Meriweather from Miami would be a good choice. Another choice might be Eric Weddle. Third round - a versatile d-lineman like McDonald from Florida. And there has been trade talk surrounding Kris Jenkins, so we'll have to watch that.
Where do you see Kenny and David Irons going?
Mel Kiper (1:37 PM)
I think Kenny goes first - in the second or third round. I think David Irons is more of a Day 2 guy.
JP Morris, NJ
Is it a forgone conclusion that the Broncos are adressing the defensive line in this draft? What about tackle after the departure of George Foster? What about wide reciever now that Rod Smith is aging quickly? Is Brandon Marshall the definitive answer as the eventual No. 2 wideout?
Mel Kiper (1:38 PM)
Definitely. They'll address it. But is it in the first round or later. They could go Jamaal Anderson at 21 or Jarvis Moss. In the second round, they could look at Tanard Jackson, who can play CB or safety.
John (City of Angels)
Levi Brown a good fit for Dolphins?
Mel Kiper (1:39 PM)
Yeah, I think he would be. Atlanta too. If Landry is gone, then I would say Brown would be a good fit. Houston at 10 would be another. I see Brown at 8, 9 or 10. DT is another possibility for Miami, so an Amobi Okoye is a choice.
Brian Marlton, NJ
Who do you think the Eagles will take with their 1st three picks?
Mel Kiper (1:41 PM)
You have to look at the Eagles and say they would like a third corner and a third safety. Reggie Nelson is a guy that can fill both of those needs. In round two, maybe get that young QB - Drew Stanton. In round three, a defensive lineman - Victor Abiamri. If they don't take a WR in the first round, they might not take one.
Josh, Pottstown Pa
Hey Mel, where do you see Buster Davis going? And how do you think he will do in the NFL??
Mel Kiper (1:42 PM)
The only thing with him is the height factor. He's an explosive tackler. He's a tough-nosed kid. I have him going in the early third round to the Broncos - pick No. 70.
DA ROCK: Oakland, CA
The raiders... J.Russell or C.Johnson? Which one do they need more?
Mel Kiper (1:44 PM)
I think they have to take a QB. I have Russell as the fourth best player in this draft and Johnson as No. 1. They would be able to take Johnson this year if they had taken a QB last year. They could have had Leinart or Cutler. This move was compounded by things that happened. Not only did they take Cutler, but their divisional rival Denver took him. Since they didn't get the QB last year, they have to take Russell. If they don't, they'll have a QB problem again. Who will throw Johnson the ball?
mel. quinn pitcock. Is he going to get drafted. Which defense does he project in, 3-4 or4-3
Mel Kiper (1:45 PM)
He's probably a 4-3 DT. When you look at him, people say he was a little overrated. He's a blue collar, overachieving DT. He turned out to be a better athlete than people thought. I'd say early fourth round to a team like Tampa Bay.
Mary (NY, NY)
Hey Mel, what about the Vikings --- after Petersen, who? thank you.
Mel Kiper (1:49 PM)
If they did get Peterson in the first, then I think they'd look at Anthony Spencer, a pass rushing DE. In the third Aundrae Allison, a WR from East Carolina. If you look to the fourth round, they could look at McBean from Oklahoma State. I would approach it that way. If Peterson is gone, they could look at Gaines Adams or QB. Say Brady Quinn is still there. They took Tavaris Jackson last year in the second round, and they traded up to get him. Are they committed to him? If Quinn's there, do they take him?
Mel Kiper (1:49 PM)
A better option would be even trading up for Calvin Johnson.
andy (SLC, UT)
Any chance the colts take a reciever, like Steve Smith, in the first round?
Mel Kiper (1:51 PM)
I'd say right now, probably not, just because of what I see happening and how their needs shape up. They don't have a second round pick so they need the first round pick to count. They could use another running back in the mix. They could use an OT, CB. Justin Harrell, DT from Tennessee, is who I have them taking in the first round.
Solomon (Stone Mountain, GA)
Have you heard anything about the Falcons moving up or down in the 1st round?
Mel Kiper (1:52 PM)
I started talking two weeks ago, why don't they move. Atlanta needs Calvin Johnson more than any other team. Vick needs a guy like Johnson. You have to help him out big time. The guy who can do that is Johnson. We've been hearing that Detroit is looking to move out of that spot then Atlanta might be able to move up there.
Ray Lynbrook N.Y.
Mel-If Lynch and Olsen are gone at pick #16 who do the Packers pick? Would they trade down and with whom? Thanks.
Mel Kiper (1:54 PM)
I would think then they would probably look at Ted Ginn Jr. A versatile, WR/return man. There's not another RB to take after Lynch or a TE at that point.
Mel Kiper (1:54 PM)
But I don't think that's going to happen. I think Lynch will be there. I don't think Olsen will be.
You say that Eric Weddle could be the most versitle, who has him high on their draft board, were do you see him going and at what positions can he play in the league? Thanks
Mel Kiper (1:55 PM)
I think he could end up in the second round to teams like Carolina, Jacksonville, Cincinnati. They could all be looking at a player like Eric Weddle.
Kevin (New York, NY)
How does Joe Thomas stack up with last years top tackle D?Brickashaw Fergurson? Also, who do you see the Jets grabbing in round 1??
Mel Kiper (1:57 PM)
I think Thomas is more highly regarded. I think Thomas is more on par with the Orlando Pace's of the draft. He's a supreme LT. I think you can make the argument that he was the most dominant player in college football last season. Thomas is going to be in the discussion for Cleveland, Tampa and certainly Arizona.
LJC (washington, dc)
Why doesn't Antonio Pittman from ohio State rank as next best running back after Lynch? Isn't he 1st round quality?
Mel Kiper (1:58 PM)
Well, in terms of my ratings, he is the next best. Peterson, Lynch, Pittman, Irons, Bush, Jackson, Booker, Henry, Hunt. Those are my top running backs. Pittman, Irons are second rounders. Bush, Jackson, Booker, Henry, Hunt are third rounders.
Mel Kiper (1:59 PM)
You should have nine RBs in the first three rounds. Obviously, Brian Leonard, if you want to put him with the RBs would make it 10. After him, the next best fullback is LeRon McClain from Alabama.
Travis (Houston, Texas)
Hey Mel, with the Texans recently signing Jamar Fletcher and Ahman Green who do you think they will go for in this years draft? Some mock drafts say Adrian Peterson and some say Leon Hall. Also what record do you think Matt Schaub will lead the Texans to this year?
Mel Kiper (2:01 PM)
Green is a veteran running back, who hopefully has a couple of good years left. If you can get an Adrian Peterson, you go out and do that. Minnesota has Taylor, but you still have to consider Peterson. I've talked to several NFL guys whom I respect that say Peterson is the best player in the draft.
Mel Kiper (2:01 PM)
I don't think Peterson will be there, but if he is you have to take him.
Mark (brick, nj)
Mel, does any team look at the top 5 offensive difference makers in this draft and, not thinking they can get one, look towards next years draft in a swap of first rounders?
Mel Kiper (2:03 PM)
Some do and some don't. I'm not sure if teams do it that often. The toughest part is figuring out how many juniors will come out. You never know what those top juniors are going to do. You've got some juniors at the top of this draft board this year. Plus you don't know where you're going to be picking. How many teams think they'll be drafting 1, 2, or 3 next year? The Redskins don't have a second, third or fourth pick in this year's draft. Those are picks you should never give up. Did they think they were going to be picking early in those rounds? No.
Todd (Cypress, CA)
How much jockeying is being done today with respect to trading up or down vs. how much is done on draft day?
Mel Kiper (2:05 PM)
Most of them are done on draft day, because you don't know who is going to be there. You don't know where guys are going to go. If a player you targeted is gone, then you look at trading down. Say a Michael Turner is traded or the Matt Schaub trade, those can affect the drafts.
Sam (Baton Rouge)
What is the probability of Craig Davis (WR) being taken in the 2nd round?
Mel Kiper (2:06 PM)
I'd say it's pretty strong. He's my ninth rated WR. I have six WRs going in the first round. You'd think there's a good chance he goes in the second. If he does, he could be going to the Jets.
Brandon (saint louis mo)
Mel, when do you see Michael Bush getting drafted? will the injuries push him into day two?
Mel Kiper (2:08 PM)
He had his surgery. The speculation is that he'll be ready to go two months after that. You don't know. You'll have to let your medical staffs determine that. But when he's back to 100%, he'll be a heckuva player. Maybe round three or four is a possibility. Atlanta is a possibility in the third round. Bobby Petrino knows him from coaching him.
Russell (Blaine, MN
Mel, what do you see the Chiefs doing with their 1st couple picks?
Mel Kiper (2:09 PM)
I think with the Chiefs, in the first round, WR or CB - Robert Meachem or Aaron Ross or Chris Houston. In the second round, if they took Meachem, you could look at Justin Blalock. Eric Wright is another possibility.
Mel Kiper (2:11 PM)
It's been fun. We covered a ton of projections. If you want the complete four round projection, check out ESPN.com on Monday, April 16.