Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (2:01 PM)
Hello! Chat is a bit early today because I've got an ESPNews tee time at 4:10. Let's talk some football!
KC, I'm new to fantasy football this year. Is it better to have a RB or WR at the RB/WR position? And why?
KC Joyner (2:02 PM)
It is almost always better to have a RB. The only exception might be in a PPR league if you have a high volume reception guy like, say, Derrick Mason.
Simon - France
KC, how much does a change in OC affect a player's metrics? Do Martz's WRs improve their stats purely on volume, or do they increase their YPA? Thanks.
KC Joyner (2:03 PM)
The change to a Martz offense will absolutely bring about a higher volume. Whether it will bring about a higher YPA is really dependent on the receiver and how well he adjusts to what is a very difficult system.
In regards to Jay Cutler-do you think the metrics are a true indicator on his performance. It's hard for me to believe he was the worst QB in the league last year.
KC Joyner (2:05 PM)
It's not that he was the worst QB in the league. It's just that he had the highest bad decision percentage. I think they are a true indicator of performance because no QB gets that high of a volume of bad decisions without being a risk taker. That's OK as long as he can keep the percentage in the 3% range and keep a YPA in the high 7s-low 8s.
John Hollinger, ESPN
KC, remember what I said last time about your chat stats. Keep this relatively Chargers free and those rumors about your loyalties may disappear. A good effort today may very well sneak you back into the lottery in our ESPN Chat Host Draft.
KC Joyner (2:05 PM)
Hey now, you're the first to mention the Chargers today!
Yo KC - Have used your fantasy draft guide for two years now and it has helped guide me to 1st place in multiple leagues. Is this year's guide ready to go? Any changes in the format or content?
KC Joyner (2:07 PM)
I allow myself one plug per chat so here goes. The guide is ready to go. The format change this year is that instead of using the old GPA system to rate matchups, I went with a color system. Now you can look at the matchup sheets and it is very easy to tell if a player has a strong or weak set of matchups.
Johnathan (Nashville, TN)
How much do you think the added speed on offense, plus an offensive coordinator that suits him better will improve Vince Young's metrics this year?
KC Joyner (2:08 PM)
I've got Young as one of my sleepers this year. The Heimerdinger offense is vertically oriented should suit him perfectly and the matchups look quite appealing.
Ken (San Diego)
What you think of the cowboys chances on winning the super bowl
KC Joyner (2:10 PM)
It all depends on if Wade Phillips can get the team to peak at the right time. His record by month shows that he tends to get teams to peak in November. It also shows that his teams hit the skids in December. He's got to prove he can pace this team better than he has ever paced a team in the past.
D McFadden (Oakland)
Will I have over 1800 yds combined this year?
KC Joyner (2:11 PM)
I think McFadden has a really good year but he'll end up splitting some time with Fargas, so 1,800 might be a stretch.
Paul (Ft. Lauderdale)
Do you think Garrard will be even better than he was last year? What are the chances the Jags knock off the Colts in the South?
KC Joyner (2:14 PM)
For Garrard, it all depends on Jerry Porter. The Jags have had vertical threats but their entire receiving corps was unreliable. Porter hasn't exactly been Mr. Reliable in the past but if he can do that for the Jags, it will improve the offense. I still don't think they will vault over the Colts unless Indy goes through some injuries and Harrison isn't back at full strength.
You say you have a chapter in your new book coming out about some questions you have gotten about the Buffalo Bills? Is it questions from these chats?
KC Joyner (2:15 PM)
The book (Scientific Football 2008) is actually chock full of questions from the chats, or at least comments on comments from them. You guys give me a lot of good material, you know!
Sooo Kc... Does Miami have a chance at all at 9 wins?
KC Joyner (2:17 PM)
Goodie, they have much more talent that what you might expect from a one win team, but not enough to go 9-7. I will say they should be in the top 5-10 in rushing. Their O line is that good (well, at least the run blocking part is).
Is your draft guide in stores or do we have to order it online?
KC Joyner (2:18 PM)
It's an online thing. Still haven't worked out any distribution deals to get it in stores.
Derek Anderson a fluke? Will Brownies fans get to see any of Brady Quinn this season?
KC Joyner (2:19 PM)
I will be shocked if the Browns go to Quinn unless Anderson completely falls apart. Their problem for years was not sticking with a group of players for more than a year or so and they are not going to make that mistake again.
Rob (Virginia Beach)
How come the Saints aren't mentioned as NFC contenders? They were in the NFC Championship game two years ago, and the offensive personnel is the same, with he young wide receivers having a bit more experience. Also, the defense is improved and Deuce McAllister should be healthy.
KC Joyner (2:20 PM)
Rob, you are right that they should be mentioned as contenders. Take out the lousy start last year and they were one of the better teams around. They also won't have Jason David's double digit YPA to deal with, so one of their big defensive holes has been closed as well.
Josh (Sheboygan, WI)
So I have a Keeper League draft in 2 weeks, Favre is on my roster, what the heck am I supposed to do?
KC Joyner (2:22 PM)
As it stands right now I'd keep him while at the same time looking over a bunch of good spot start QBs I could piece together in a pinch if he does stay retired.
Bill (KC, MO)
If the Patriots really thump Brodie Croyle in week 1 do you think KC will consider a change? This guy just doesn't seem like a franchise QB to me?
KC Joyner (2:24 PM)
Nothing in his metrics last year would suggest that either. The only caveat I'd make is that KC is changing over their entire roster. It's not really fair to expect a QB to do a great job right out of the gate in that case. Give him until week 5 or so before throwing in the towel.
Kitna guaranteed 10 wins again. This year seems like their best chance at 10 with the division up for grabs. How realistic is it that the Lions take the NFC North playoff berth?
KC Joyner (2:25 PM)
I just don't get Kitna. Didn't he learn his lesson last year? Detroit made some personnel improvements but they lost their best CB for the second year in a row and Minnesota has all the looks of a monster team. I can't see any more than 9 wins out of them, tops, and even that might be a stretch.
Do you play ESPN fantasy football KC? Who would be your top players at each position?
KC Joyner (2:28 PM)
Of course I play ESPN fantasy football! Who doesn't? Regarding top players, my list would be similar to a lot of others: Brady at QB, LT then AP at RB, Moss at WR. The only caveat I make on Moss is that the premium price he'll drive may not be worth it. In other words, don't skip a good RB to pick him up because the odds are he won't be worth enough additional fantasy points to make that move worth it.
Why is it that so many writers seem to have jumped off the Pats bandwagon? Though they are coming off a superbowl loss, they are also coming off one of the best seasons in NFL history...tons of offense and that won't change and their defense got younger and faster. All they really lost was Asante. Rosie was hurt, so they were without him anyway and were still great. It seems many writers are predicting them to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the AFC. What changed? Are they no longer the sexy pick? Realistically how do you see them doing this year?
KC Joyner (2:30 PM)
I can understand putting SD in front of Ne because SD probably has a better overall roster. The Pats also still have a very old defense and it could take some time for the youngsters to acclimate themselves. Even with that caveat, though, I can't see them as being any lower than the #2 team in the conference.
Matt (Reston, VA)
Is AGonzalez going to become a legit #2 WR this season regardless or MHarrison's issues both on and off the field?
KC Joyner (2:31 PM)
Anthony Gonzalez was a legit #2 last year. He had a double digit YPA and will either be the next Brandon Stokely or a very solid replacement for Harrison if he can't come back from his injury.
I've always said Asante Samuel was a good corner who had a couple "better than good" years. How were his metrics? Is he truly an elite corner or did Philly overpay? How were Fernando Bryant's numbers in comparison? Certainly he's not as much of a ballhawk, but I imagine he'll play better in the Pats system than previous systems. Do you agree?
KC Joyner (2:32 PM)
Samuel is a ballhawk so his YPA totals tend to be higher than a coverage CB like Bryant. That was the case last year, as Bryant had a 6.5 YPA versus Samuel's 7.2. He'll be more than an ample replacement for Samuel on the coverage standpoint.
Should I trade Anthony Gonzalez for Brandon Jacobs?
KC Joyner (2:34 PM)
Not straight up in a performance league unless you are really hurting at WR and/or really stacked at RB.
mathieu (san francisco)
Is there any chance that the Broncos could be the surprise of the league this year or is the Mastermind just out thinking his self again
KC Joyner (2:38 PM)
I just see way too many question marks for them to do much. They also can't seem to decide what kind of team they want to be. They have zone blocking O linemen but also seem to want to be a dropback passing team. Zone linemen tend to be bad dropback blockers because they are usually smaller (speed being more important for them in the zone scheme). It's just an odd mix.
Rich (The First State)
KC: everyone seems to be wear kid gloves when it comes to Tavaris Jackson. He will have a Top 5 backfield, Top 5 O-Line and two legit WRs and lets not talk about a monster D. If he has a hand in losing 2 out of the first 4 games isn't he outta there?
KC Joyner (2:40 PM)
Could be. I'm of the mindset that Jackson is a better QB than he's given credit for, as I really liked what I saw out of him late last year. The improve targets will also really help him out, as throwing to Troy Williamson will kill anyone's YPA totals. Having said that, you are right that he has high expectations and if they get off to a slow start, he could see the bench. I wouldn't do it unless he really imploded, though, as he should be the long-term answer up there.
Do you think this is the year that Elvis Dumervil will get recognized as a top pass rusher and get a Pro Bowl invite?
KC Joyner (2:41 PM)
I couldn't agree more and that's why I made him one of my four young defensive players to look out for in 2008 in a piece in next week's ESPN The Magazine. I'm doing my part to get him the pub he deserves!
I can keep Hasselbeck as a 4th round pick. Should I keep him, or see if I can trade my 5th or 6th round pick for Romo?
KC Joyner (2:43 PM)
Romo's got a really tough schedule this year (as do many fantasy QBs), so I wouldn't go trading for him if I had Hass on the roster.
KC, What kind of numbers do you see the Bills Trent Edwards putting up this season?
KC Joyner (2:44 PM)
It will be a ton of short passes, so expect something like 3,000 yards, a 63-65% completion rate and a YPA in the low 7s. In other words, a dink and dunk year.
Robert - Las Vegas
What is your opinion on the Chargers three top draft picks of 08: CB Cason, FB Hester and RB Marcus Thomas? Who will be a starter from day one and who will see significant playing time? Cason is the most obvious at 3rd CB, w/ Thomas replacing Tuner (over the smaller Sproles) and Hester in for Norv's unique plays.
KC Joyner (2:44 PM)
Cason will start from day one and will be a huge improvement over Drayton Florence and his double digit YPA.
As of now! Which 6 teams do you have making the playoffs in the AFC this season?
KC Joyner (2:47 PM)
Give me Indy, NE, SD and Pittsburgh as division winners. Give me Tennessee and Cleveland as the wild cards. Well, I hate to cut it a bit short but I've got to get in the car pretty soon to ensure I make it to the studio in time. I'll be around 4:10 with David Lloyd and James Walker on ESPNews so check it out if you get a chance! I also hope to see you in next week's chat!