Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Time to talk some football.
Team Joyner needs to watch out!!! Its going to be the upset of the year when Team Joyner goes down.
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Texas, I do very little trash talking so I'll refrain from a rejoinder. I will say that I am a combined 11-5 in the chat leagues and leave it at that.
Robert (Palm City, FL)
KC, I just want to thank you for your recommendation of Roddy White this year. I have him on all my teams and was able to pick him up as a #4 receiver. It kinda makes up for drafting Torry Holt as a #1.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Glad I could help! I expected White to do well this year but he's exceeded expectations.
how do u think the eagles will do?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I'll take that as a how do I think they'll do the rest of the year. The Eagles are in a tough spot because of the division they play in. Three teams could end up with 10 wins and, contrary to popular opinion, Philly could be one of those three.
Eagles make playoffs. True or False?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I'd have to say 60-40 false, especially if Westbrook's injury is more serious than is generally known.
Kevin (San Diego)
Read an article with a quote from the NFL Scouting Service that said Ike Taylor was 15 for 29, for 153 yards allowed. That would make a 5.3 YPA....I remember you had him at 8-9 a couple weeks ago, did he improve or do your systems differ in who gets credited with what?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
I've got him as 21 att, 6 comp and 210 yards. That illustrates one of the reasons why YPA is always going to be a somewhat subjective stat. What one person considers to be in coverage is not what another considers to be in coverage. Over the past six seasons I've come up with methodologies to discern this but other game trackers use other methods.
Damon (Butler, NJ)
I hate 14-team leagues. You killed me a couple of weeks ago! Have you done any metrics on the Jets secondary, especially Lowery? They are young and looking good! (Other than SS)
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Damon, I know where you are coming from on 14 team leagues but I did it for the chat leagues because of the huge response of posters wanting to join. Regarding the Jets, Lowery is actually the weakest link at the moment (metric-wise). His 9.4 YPA is higher than my scouting eye would have said it would be, so I think it will come back down as the season progresses.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
Newman looks like he'll be out for a while. How much does hurt the Dallas secondary? They haven't looked all that strong to begin with (although looks can sometimes be deceiving). Thanks for the insight.
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
It hurts it very much, especially if the Jones situation turns into something that causes him to miss time. Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins would be pressed into playing more in that case and since both are posting double digit YPAs, it wouldn't be a positive development.
a guy in my league offered me tony romo and clinton portis for drew brees and chris johnson should i take it? Thanks
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
I'd probably jump on that because Johnson is a split carry candidate.
Kevin (San Diego)
Follow-up then, do you find it harder to track players that play alot of zone coverages (like the Steelers do), as it must be tough to really determine when a CB "hands off" a WR to a S or another CB in a different zone....
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
It's more different than harder. It's just a matter of knowing zone responsibilities and assigning the play to the person who should have coverage.
Who should be the Redskins starting right tackle, Jon Jansen or Stephon Heyer? It sounds like Zorn is leaning towards Heyer, but the Redskins running game has been much improved on the right side since Jansen returned to the starting line up.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
I've only broken down a couple of Skins running games so far this year but based on that I'd say Jansen is more consistent but Heyer is more dominant. What I mean by that is Heyer gets beat on blocks more often but when he does win the block, the creases he makes are larger than Jansen's. Zorn probably believes he can get more consistency from Heyer and that's why he would be leaning in that direction.
Anthony Gonzales is collecting dust and taking up space on my bench. Will I regret dropping him?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
You will regret it big time, maybe even as early as this week. Don't give up on him yet and if you do want to move him, try and trade him. He has fantasy street value and you should be able to get something in return.
Hi KC, I see you are loving Carolina this week. Would the Ravens be a better play than the Panthers in a big bonus points against league. Also I am stuck between Graham and Addai going against tough run defenses. Who sits and I know you love Graham. It is a 1 ppr league. Thank you
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Go Carolina in the defensive realm and Addai in the RB one. The Ravens secondary is in bad shape physically and Carolina will be able to put 8 in the box all day long against an injured TB passing game.
Who would rather have from here on out, Cutler or Rodgers?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
I think GB is not nearly as good as everyone thought they were. Cutler is in an offense with a dominant receiving corps and one of the best playcallers of all time, so I'd go with Cutler.
Luis (SB, CA)
KC, I've got Thomas Jones as my #2 back. I've also got Run DMC. Who do I consider baiting? I think Thomas jones is starting to his old way again...looked great week 1
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
I'd stick with DMC as the #2 and bait Jones. Tom Cable is a run-first coach and he'll get that O line to pound people. The Jets O line is doing well in certain areas but overall I don't trust them as much as I do the Raiders, at least from run standpoint.
KC, I heard last week that C. Griffin is 4th on the Vikes in tackles, due to his constantly getting thrown at. How are his metrics? Is he that bad, or is Winfield just that much better?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Cedric is holding up. He has a 7.4 YPA at this point. Winfield has a 3.3 YPA and may be the best cornerback in the league right now. He'd be my All Pro vote at this point.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
That's what I figured. How can Dallas keep drafting defensive players, but still not seem to have its secondary get any better? Adding Jones is nice, but they still seem weak back there. Is it just bad coaching/schemes? Thanks again.
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Josh, going into the season they had three superb CBs and had just added the very physically talented Jenkins. That's about as deep as any team ever gets at that position, so it's more circumstance than a lack of personnel planning.
KC - Is it time to try and trade/drop Bowe? He is a stud, but stuck with below-average QB's on a terrible offense.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I wouldn't drop him because he's still been a solid play just about every week. What you might want to do is try to trade him with someone who has consistency issues at WR. You definitely won't want to drop him unless you are getting someone better in return.
KC - I have a rules question for you. I was thinking about the Wildcat formation that the Dolphins run. Probably an easy answer, but do they have to have Pennington in there when they run it? Why not have another WR line up out there?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
There's nothing in the rules that says an offense has to have a quarterback on the field, so yes they could have a receiver replace Pennington.
KC, long time no chat. I can see it from both sides, but for DBs why is YPA a more accurate metric than Yards per Completion. I would figure a guy could be targeted on a lot of deep routes, but not give up a reception, but still have high YPA. Is my reasoning correct?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Great to have you back, Raymond! It's really not a matter of either being more accurate or better. I lean on YPA because it measures overall consistency. YPC is a good tool to use when you want to measure a person's performance when they don't succeed. Both have analytical value, in other words.
John (Columbus, OH)
Whats the ceiling on Darelle revis - does he have the potential to be in the top 5 CB's in the league discussion?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Absolutely. The Jets did a great job of adding talent this year (Jenkins and Pace are playing lights out) and if they do a similar job in talent acquisition this offseason, Revis could be a shutdown CB on one of the 10 best defenses in the league.
Hey KC, lots of people on a bye for me this week. Should I start Warrick Dunn or Ahman Green? PHILLIES RULE!!!!!
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
I figured you had to be fired up for the Phillies! I'd go with Green over Dunn.
Jonathan (Toronto, Canada)
How much of the Rams troubles were directly related to Scott Linehan being in charge? How much can they turn it around under a coach they support?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
A lot of it is on Linehan, as that team had nearly given up on him multiple times in the previous two seasons. Haslett has his strengths as a coach and he'll get more respect from the players but the Rams are bereft of talent in many areas. They need a personnel overhaul before they are going to show major improvement.
Matt (Milwaukee, WI)
I'm hit with byes this week, Bernard Berrian or Brandon Stokley for my final WR spot?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
They both have favorable matchups but I always go with a starter over a #3, so put Berrian in there.
This is just opinion, but I think the Dolphins keep Pennington in because at some point, they'll run the Wildcat formation, have Brown throw a backward pass, and Pennington go deep (if there's time).
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Good point. Teams are going to figure out how to slow that scheme down and when they do, this could be Miami's counter.
Delhomme @ TB or Palmer @ Jets?? Pick One!!
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Delhomme all the way. Tampa's corners are not playing well this year.
Start Fargas over Addai this week? At least with Addai I know he will get the carries, may not do much with them. But isn't that better than hoping Fargas touches the ball at least 15 times?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
I'd go Addai. I think Indy will get enough scoring chances based on how badly the Ravens secondary is banged up.
Is Nate Clements a top 5 cb?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
No, not even close. He has a 9.5 YPA and his YPA last year was nearly as bad. He's definitely not as good as his contract says he should be.
Steeler CB DeShea Townsend has been starting over Bryant McFadden so far this season. Though I'm not a Steeler fan, many of my Steeler lovers hate on Townsend and call for McFadden be the starter. Who do your metrics say should be in the starting in Da'Burgh?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
McFadden has a 5.4 YPA but when Townsend is healthy he puts up those kinds of numbers. I don't think Townsend is at 100% health this season and that is a big part of why he has a 10.2 YPA. Or, to put it succinctly, McFadden should be the starter based on 2008 performance.
Why do you think A. Gonzo will do any better this year. With Clark healthy, Gonzo isn't getting into the slot that often where he really performs, right? Harrison isn't going to #3 anytime soon is he?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
KMAC, it may come down to health for Gonzalez. When he's healthy, he puts up great totals but he is proving to be akin to Brandon Stokely health wise. He's also like Stokely performance wise when he is in the game, however, so I really like him as a spot starter.
Steve, Wall Street
Hey KC, totally random question here. With the market the way it is, do the NFL players who make huge amounts of money, get concerned about their investments or not? What do most players do with their assets? Have you heard much from them about the situation we are in?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
I can't speak for any players but there have been reports that the commissioner has sent letters to every team informing them that this could be a rough time financially. It's hard to fill those high priced seats up when there aren't high paying jobs out there, so the NFL may have to rethink it's ticket sales approach. By the way, I covered this subject in great detail in my book Blindsided, so check it out if you want to read more thoughts on the subject.
Nick (NY, NY)
KC, my man! His off-the field troubles aside, has Pacman Jones been as awful as the clips I've seen of him indicate?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
He's had his subpar moments but I have Jones with a 5.6 YPA and a 50% success rate. Those are both pretty good totals.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
The reason the QB stays on the field during the Wildcat formation is so the defense won't know it's the formation being used. If they see the QB running off the field, they have more time to adjust to it. You lose more than you gain by taking out the QB...
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Well said by Robert.
James (SF, CA)
Start B. Berrian or M. Harrison?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Berrian all the way. As I wrote in my Insider Pass Plays article this week, his point explosion last week was no fluke.
If Clinton Portis stays healthy this year, do you see him leading the league in yards the way they have started to run the ball over this winning streak?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
From what I've seen of the Skins O line thus far, Portis topping the league in rush yards would not be a surprise. They are blocking very well and by my estimation only the Giants could give them a run for their money in that department (pun intended).
What do you think of Ellis Hobbs this year? Though most writers talk about how hard it is to judge corners because if they are the closest guy when the ball is caught doesn't necessarily mean they are the one who blew the coverage...but he's always the guy that seems to be the closest defender on big plays. Is he playing as badly as I think? Do you think the Pats secondary hurts them down the stretch?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Hobbs is actually having one of his better seasons overall but it's been up and down. He'll have games where he gives up 9 YPA and games where allows only 5 YPA. Consistency is his issue. And I do have to mention that I assign coverage responsibility by more than who was the closest defender.
Scott (San Diego, CA)
In the wildcat formation - wouldn't it make sense for the defense to not cover Pennington and put an extra guy in the box? I'd rather take my chances having a RB throwing to a slow QB. Worst case is a short gain.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Or that you might see a completion to a QB but then get a free shot at tackling him. It might make sense to leave someone close to him but you still never want to leave someone completely uncovered.
Scott (San Diego, CA)
KC - In you gut, do you think the Chargers turn it around and make the playoffs?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
If this were 2007, I'd say no but since the AFC seems to be in a state of flux that might not hold up (i.e. some of the currently good teams might not be so good in a few weeks), I'd say their chances of turning it around are quite good.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
I, for one, hope the ticketing system changes. It's insane trying to attend an NFL game on a budget.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Josh, that's one of the main precepts of that chapter in Blindsided. The NFL is spending so much time and effort on the high end customers (from a price standpoint) that they are losing touch with the masses. It might be good for them financially in the short term but they need to make this game as accessible as possible to as many people as possible in as many ways as possible for good long term growth.
Scott (San Diego, CA)
For those worried about L.T. here is what was posted in another chat L.T. stats thru 5 weeks... 2006 (4 games): 89 carries, 336 yards, 3TDs - Led league in rushing/tds/ NFL MVP 2007 (5 games): 98 carries, 329 yards, 3TDs - Led league in rushing/rushing tds 2008 (5 games): 89 carries, 331 yards, 4TDs - ???
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Great numbers, thanks for sharing them in this chat as well. The only caveat I'd make is that LT wasn't injured in those previous years.
KC do you have any metrics on Kris Jenkins at NT, he's been impressive so far for a guy whose never played the position. Also I'm 1-4 in one of your leagues, is it time to shake things? Need to make playoffs to backup all the smack talk.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
I don't have his numbers right in front of me but if you go to the NY Times 5th Down blog from a couple of weeks ago, I posted his metrics there. And at 1-4, it is always time to shake things up!
Common Sense (Alaska)
Who cares about ticket prices really? Football is better on TV anyways, where you can afford the beer and the weather is always excellent.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
I like football on TV as much as anyone but I also know that it makes for a better TV production if the stadium is full of hardcore fans screaming their heads off at the opposition.
Nate (Wash. DC)
KC, I can't decide between Housh and Roddy this week. How much more do you like Roddy?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I like Housh more in the sense that NY will pass the ball more than Atlanta and that the Jets do have some secondary weaknesses. Chicago's secondary is stronger all around so I'd go Housh.
I want to be in the same fantasy league with that guy who's trading Romo and Portis..are you kidding me? KC do you think we'll see some big time trading this NFL season?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I hope we'll see some trades but I wouldn't hold my breath on them happening. The salary cap makes trading very difficult unless it is a financial apples to apples deal.
In addition to Common Sense....Football translates worse to from TV to in person than any of the other sports. If it wasn't for the jumbotrons, most of the people at the game wouldn't have a clue what's going on (during crucial calls).
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
Jon, again I ask how much of that may come down to the fans the leagues is aiming for. If you are only going after the highbrows who see the game as just another social gathering and not the hardcore fan who wants to see his team crush the opposition, the environment is going to be more laid back and the populace less informed than would be helpful to the team.
Who sdo you think hould get the starting job on my team: P. Manning or Rivers?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
I think you'll want to alternate based on matchup. For example, when SD plays New Orleans, you'll want Rivers. When Indy plays Houston, you'll want Manning. Well, it's been great but Mrs. Scientist nearly has the steak cooked so it's time for me to sit down with the family and have some dinner. I hope to see you all next week!