Fantasy Baseball w/AJ Mass
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AJ Mass (10:59 AM)
Good morning gang... we've got to make a quick getaway at the end of this hour. (Just got a message from Rebel telling me to run...) so let's get going shall we?
Will Yankee Stadium's HR potential increase the value of Swisher, Matsui and Damon?
AJ Mass (11:02 AM)
No doubt all Yankees left-handers may see a few extra blasts to their name this season... however, what I've failed to see anyone mention so far is that the Yankees haven't played a night game at their new digs. Wind patterns can be a lot different once the sun goes down, and I'd like to see what they are once first pitch is at 7:10 or so.
Jake (VA Beach)
I think Rebel meant...from the show! Heroes just keeps going in circles! Maybe that's why their logo is what it is.
AJ Mass (11:03 AM)
I agree, Jake. But with only episode left this season, I'll watch. Still, while I preach patience with fantasy players in April, it's probably time to cut bait on the Cheerleader and friends.
Should I drop Matt Cain and pick up Nolasco? I already have Josh Johnson.
AJ Mass (11:05 AM)
I love Ricky Nolasco this season, and would certainly pick him up over Cain in most cases, but with Johnson already, I do hesitate - Cain's a good pitcher, and I prefer to spread my team out over the majors.
How serious is McCann's eye problem?
AJ Mass (11:06 AM)
Serious enough that he may need surgery. I think we're definitely looking at a potential trip to the DL for a month at some point this season.
Steve (Portland) [via mobile]
Do I bench I. Kinsler today against Toronto's Holliday, and play Scutaro or F. Lopez.
AJ Mass (11:07 AM)
I'm not usually one for rotating hitters based on pitching matchups. In general, I go with my guys as long as they are hot, regardless of the opponent. Pitchers I can see playing the matchup game - after all one bad outing can destroy your ERA. But an 0-for-4 from one hitter isn't the end of the world.
Commish Question - What do you do when a team gets mad and drops all his players that aren't on the can't cut list? Obviously you lock him down, but do you do anything with the players now waiting on the waiver wire? Thanks!
AJ Mass (11:08 AM)
You inform the rest of the league that nobody is to grab those players, you reinstate those players to his roster, and freeze it until you find another owner to take over.
Ian Stewart - Denver, CO
Will there come a point where I'll be useful in 12-team mixed league play?
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
Absolutely. I started Stewart yesterday in one of my leagues. With Mondays and Thursdays generally being light schedules, if Colorado is playing you can get a few free licks when others have a day off.
There have been a lot of postponements lately. Will that mean double headers on the horizon? Where can i see which players get this bonus?
AJ Mass (11:12 AM)
The double-dips will come down the line when the league schedules them. Generally speaking, you can look to see when the teams will face off again to determine where a game might fit. However in the case of SD-Philly from yesterday, the Padres don't make another trip to PA, so an off day will probably be claimed in August for that one. Check Tristan's Fantasy Forecaster for these tidbits, as well as our Daily Notes and OOTB.
Peter (West Orange)
The big story today is obviously Zimmermann's debut victory. What are your predictions for the season? Should I consider dropping Carpenter for him?
AJ Mass (11:14 AM)
Bullpen questions certainly have me doubtful he'll win the close ones on a regular basis... but I still think Carpenter returns and has a solid end to 2009 --- however, without a DL-spot to stash him, I'd go for the warm body today.
Papi, Pronk, or None of the Above? Who should clog up my UTIL spot?
AJ Mass (11:17 AM)
Depends on what your team needs are, but look at it this way... if you thought Papi was going to hit 25 HRs and hit .270 --- and you have faith in your predictions, then from hereon out, you've got a 25 HR hitter who hit .300. I'd keep him in there for a least a few more weeks.
Spread your players over different teams?!?! What does 1 pitcher have to do with another? This isn't fantasy football AJ
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
No it's not, but we're talking about two guys who may face the same powerful lineup in the same week, as well as two guys who will both likely lose if the Marlins go into a protracted slump. It does have some relevance.
You didn't comment on my value in the post above ...
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
No, but the argument is the same. Rest of the year, I think Papi may well have more value simply because your start has been better.
True but you also get the benefit of 2 guys who face a weak lineup or enjoy the benefits of a hot streak. I say always take the best players - the trends even out for all players.
AJ Mass (11:21 AM)
No question. I don't "not draft" Nolasco for a Chien-Ming Wang simply to spread it out... but once my team is set, I don't cut a Matt Cain (similar value) for him.
Douglas (Pittsburgh, PA)
AJ, other than McClouth, Doumit, Maholm and Capps... should any other Pirates be owned?
AJ Mass (11:22 AM)
I think Morgan looks terrific and if you need speed, he's a very solid option.
Tim (Saint Paul, MN)
False logic on the Papi question. Just because he's started slow, DOES NOT mean he will automatically make it up. If you had him at 25/.270, he'll hit at a 25/.270 rate for the rest of the year. Called the gamblers fallacy.
AJ Mass (11:24 AM)
The gamblers fallacy applies to independent events - like a roulette wheel with red/black odds on each spin being equal. Baseball players naturally have hot and cold streaks - so to expect a hot streak from a hitter at some point over the rest of the season to make up for a slow two-week start is not faulty logic. Of course, there is no guarantee - and he won't automatically make it up. But your comment seems to imply he CAN'T make it up and that's a fallacy as well.
Barney...AKA Swarley (New York, New York)
Aj, move fred lewis and bonifacio for Way-Rod and Morrow in a 12 team keeper league? Also how long would you hold on to Lastings before cutting him lose/moving him??
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
I guess so. Obviously, a hitters for pitchers deal needs to take into account who you have now in those spots and who'll you put in once the trade is done. But Way-Rod is probably the most valuable of the four in the deal. Lastings can be cut, I fear. I think they keep him down for a month - or until they decide to send Elijah down to teach HIM a lesson. It's just not a great situation in Washington.
Commish Corner Q: Your thoughts on Streaming being well documented, just wondering what you think about teams that use exclusively RP's to try and secure ERA, WHIP and K's. Is this just as egregious?
AJ Mass (11:29 AM)
Not at all - so long as the league rules don't say you need a certain number of starts per week or a certain number of SP vs. RP. My problem with streaming is more one of having an "unlimited roster" to choose from. I have no problem with an owner rotating the players he drafted fair and square in and out of his lineup.
Iannetta or Shoppach? Have Shoppach and Iannetta was just dropped. I should make the switch, right?
AJ Mass (11:31 AM)
I don't think so. I like Shoppach to get you 20 HR and hit .280 or so. I'd stay with that.
Replacement for McCann if he goes on the Dl....K Suzuki or N Hundley?
AJ Mass (11:32 AM)
I think you go with Hundley, even though Suzuki will play more each week.
Is Chris Duncan worth picking up now? Thanks
AJ Mass (11:34 AM)
Now is the time, because everyone will forget about him when looking at his teammate Ryan Ludwick's gaudy numbers.
I have too much speed on my team and I know it already. What is a good rate to trade SBs to HRs? How does the R/RBI factor in to this?
AJ Mass (11:36 AM)
Steals were 1.75 times more valuable than HRs last season. It varies year to year, but that's the most recent baseline. I don't worry about runs, because those tend to even out if the SB/HR splits are even. The RBIs also even out in many cases with BA. So it's still a case by case - but that's the general math.
Jay Bruce was dropped in my league, am I crazy to think I should hang onto Dukes instead of making a play for J.B.?
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
I think Dukes is a time bomb. I'd go for Bruce myself.
Brandon Wood (Cali)
Angels need my stick, right? Will my phone ring today?
AJ Mass (11:39 AM)
Yes, and sadly, no. This is a team that thinks Macier Izturis is a No. 3 hitter.
What do you think about Scott Baker tonight?? and the rest of the season?
AJ Mass (11:40 AM)
I'd keep him out tonight, but I do think he can still win double-digits.
AJ, Do you see any reason not to drop Willy Tavares for Dexter Fowler? It's starting to look like PT won't be an issue.
AJ Mass (11:41 AM)
Not only that, it's far less wear and tear on your stomach watching Dexter.
With little 10 Team League bench space, would you pick up a struggling C-M Wang?
AJ Mass (11:42 AM)
No sirree. There's a reason I didn't draft Wang in any league I'm playing in. And this isn't a bad start - it's putrid.
Hi AJ, Please tell if you think Joba has a good season, somewhere around 16W, 165K, 3.95ERA, 1.3WHIP. Or do you think he will end up in the pen? Thanks!
AJ Mass (11:44 AM)
I think Joba should end up in the pen, because the Yankees would be better served with him in that role. But I also think they'll be stubborn and not make that move, especially with Wang off to such a lousy start. 12 Wins and a 4.30 ERA as a starter is what I see.
Glenn Stroudsburg, Pa
Hey A J could use your input. rich harden and kowie kendrick were both dropped in my 12 team league are they worth picking up? when i would have to drop weaver and andrus
AJ Mass (11:45 AM)
I'd drop Andrus for Kendrick, but as for Harden? I'll stay away. I think he's in for a long season after somehow managing to stay healthy in 08.
Brian (Chicago, IL)
If you were to pick two of the four for a keeper league, who would you choose out of Maybin, Upton, Dukes, and Fowler?
AJ Mass (11:46 AM)
I'd go with Fowler and Upton.
Please, I've been trying for days and I'm about to begin weeping: who do you like best - Konerko or Beltre? And would you part ways with Pence for Ethier? Thanks, AJ!
AJ Mass (11:47 AM)
Personally, I've always been on the Beltre bandwagon and have no problem sending off Underpants for Ethier.
Do you guys post updated positional rankings for the rest of the season like you do with football?
AJ Mass (11:47 AM)
We usually do a "rest of the season" projections list as a group at the end of/beginning of each month.
Good idea to hedge my bets and trade Beltre in a AL-only league? The trade talk is already starting, and I'm worried I'm gonna lose half his season.
AJ Mass (11:49 AM)
Assuming your league has a "lose the player sent to the other league" policy, then I would certainly send out feelers now. But don't make the deal until you feel you're getting equal value. After all, even if he is moved, there's no guarantee it will definitely be to the NL.
What is going on in Texas with Chris Davis? He was suppose to break out but started scarily slow. Would you consider him a good buy-low?
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
I think Davis was hyped way too much pre-season. That being said, all the Rangers left-handed hitters are struggling and the righties are flourishing. So,it's not just him - I'd take a chance and buy low.
Eddie Money (Los Angeles)
Ian Stewart must play everyday. I repeat, IAN STEWART MUST PLAY EVERYDAY. That is all.
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
You think your Jedi mind tricks will work with me?
Chris (Hoboken, NJ)
Name game Mark Teahen or Connor Jackson?
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
For now Teahen. Although I wish he'd have gotten 2B eligibility first.
Would you part ways with Joba for any of the following pitchers: Wandy, Glen Perkins, Cueto? Thanks.
AJ Mass (11:53 AM)
Wandy yes, Perkins - I think I'd roll the dice there. Cueto - no.
Please AJ, where can I get saves if there are no starting closers in the FA pool?
AJ Mass (11:55 AM)
Look to the 8th inning guys... Putz, Corpas, Mock in Washington perhaps... Even the best closers can't pitch 7 days a week.
AL Only League name game to replace Gordon: Wigginton, Fields, Rolen? Thanks!
AJ Mass (11:56 AM)
I like Wiggy. Everytime Fields runs the bases I think his legs are going to snap off.
Bill (Detroit, Michigan)
Please answer my question I am from Detroit and nothing good happens to us! I am in a bind at closer, which closer would you consider more valuable, Lindstrom in Florida or Wilson in San Fran?
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
Considering the Marlins have the better lineup, I'd go with Lindstrom.
Any truth to Kearns to the Yankees? Apparently Acta wants to make Willingham an everyday player, and Dunn has been taking fly balls in RF.
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
I haven't heard those rumors, but Acta has indeed been very high on Willingham. However, if he really wanted to get him in there everyday, he could simply demote Dukes to Triple-A. Dunn taking outfield balls is just a way to keep him in the lineup when Johnson plays. If I were the Yankees I would not want Kearns.
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
That's all for today gang. Thanks for the Q's. We'll see you the next time on Villa Allegre!