Fantasy Baseball w/AJ Mass
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AJ Mass (10:59 AM)
Welcome to a very special episode of Fantasy Baseball chat... we'll be here for the next hour, answering your questions. However, fear not...if we don't get to you before the bell tolls twelve, you'll have a second chance to get through from 3-4 this afternoon. Who's up first?
Doogie Howser (Awesomeland)
Will Hafner going on the DL increase Shoppach's PT?
AJ Mass (11:01 AM)
I don't think so, as the team will likely bring up David Dellucci to bat in that spot... although, fingers are certainly crossed that this is the opportunity to give LaPorta a chance.
Peter (West Orange, NJ)
Is Corpas done as closer or will he get one more chance to prove himself?
AJ Mass (11:03 AM)
He'll get another chance, but just one. Street never actually blew a save before he "lost" the job, and even though last night he got the save b/c Corpas was given the night off, it certainly doesn't give Manny any less pressure to do it now.
Douglas (Pittsburgh, PA)
AJ, when Beimel comes off the DL, will he be the guy in D.C.?
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
I don't think so. He's not really closer material and will probably be set-up guy a la Putz. I think you saw yesterday who is the most likely guy to take that job.
Are you still down on LIRIANO now after his solid start against the D-Rays earlier this week? Would you rather have Wandy or Cueto over him for the remainder of the year?
AJ Mass (11:06 AM)
He's still got a long way to go to prove himself to me. Right now, I still like Wandy a lot better, and still lean towards Cueto.
Thoughts on this trade - Verlander and Maholm for Sizemore. Is it veto-able?
AJ Mass (11:08 AM)
I don't think it's near even value, with a No.2 and a No. 4 SP for a top-10 hitter.
Starting Garza vs the Sox today? Thanks AJ!
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
If I were forced to start a pitcher today, Garza would be near the top of my list, but there's slim pickings today. If I didn't need to start him, I would not.
Scott from Philly
AJ..My lineup is very bad..I need hitters..should I trade Tim Lincecum for Vlad and Josh Hamilton???
AJ Mass (11:10 AM)
Why would you trade away your ace for damaged goods? The other owner is the one who should be lucky to get top value for these guys, not the other way around.
Cut a struggling Kelly Johnson for what looks like a healthy Rickie Weeks? OR wait out KJ's struggles?
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
I've been disappointed with Kelly's start, and I don't know how long it will take for him to catch up to where Weeks is now. I'd make the swap.
Start Mad Max today? He's got to turn it around at some point, right?
AJ Mass (11:12 AM)
Not me. I do think he wins a game eventually, but until I see him reach the sixth inning, I have no faith.
Hey AJ, would you trade me for Haren and Swisher?
AJ Mass (11:13 AM)
That I probably would do. Haren is nearly worth the deal even up and while I think Swisher slows down a bit, he's more than an apt replacement for Manny.
Give up McLouth for Rollins?
AJ Mass (11:15 AM)
No, unless the need was great at SS. I think Nate ends up with better numbers, but of course, there are far more quality OFs than SS.
You starting Davies in H2H this afternoon?
AJ Mass (11:15 AM)
I am, if you look at the Daily Notes today I rank him #2 for the day, but as I point out, it's more a commentary on the rest of the starters who are going today.
Thinking of buying low on Jimmy Rollins. What are reasonable expectations for the rest of his season?
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
Here's the thing with J-Roll. He's actually outproducing his peripherals right now. You can look at this two ways - he'll increase his contact rate and things like that and have a surge, or he'll produce more in line with his 2009 skillset and even an improvement in those areas won't see an increase in production. I think its the latter.
Jason 9St Louis)
What do you think of Andrew Bailey? Does he close at all this year?
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
There's a chance he closes at least a couple of times, but even if he doesn't, right now he's the No. 6 reliever in terms of value in my rankings. He's probably worth a pickup even if he only gets 2 or 3 saves for you.
Andrew (Kent, OH)
So what you are saying is that you DON'T like Rollins?
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner!
Beltran for Greinke? Beltran for Holliday? Beltran for Peavy? Keeper league.
AJ Mass (11:22 AM)
I was just saying this weekend that Beltran is by far the least productive .400 hitter I have ever seen. Fantasy -wise, he's just not helping out as much as he should be with that high average - and that average is only going to go down. So yes, I'd deal him for either of those pitchers.
What's Wandy Rodriguez's value? Name a player you'd swap him with.
AJ Mass (11:25 AM)
He's a top-20 pitcher. But when we're talking what kind of player to trade him for, you have to understand that pitchers never equal hitters in my book, because we're looking at 4-categories versus 5. SO even though he's a top-20 pitcher, he's probably more like #100 overall.
Big Unit or Nolasco from here on out? - 10 team NL only roto.
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
Nolasco. Johnson has to be too perfect to win games, and he generally can't pitch deep enough to do so.
I always laugh when someone discounts top pitching because its only a 4 category impact. How many offensive players impact 5 categories successfully outside the first round? That isn't a good argument AJ!
AJ Mass (11:30 AM)
I disagree completely Todd. Hitters not only can contribute to 5 categories versus 4, but in most leagues they also contribute to 4 "counting categories" (HR, R, RBI, SB) and only one "negative category" (BA). SP on the other hand give you nothing towards saves, and have only two "counting categories" (W, K) and two "negative categories" (ERA, WHIP) making one bad day far more harmful to your team than any hitter ever could. An 0-for-4 only hurts one category of a hitter's fantasy value. A 1 IP, 5 ER outing hurts you in two.
Scott (St. Louis)
Do you have any predictions or thoughts on Tyler Greene?
AJ Mass (11:30 AM)
Just a fill-in until the other more experienced Greene gets better. Nothing to see here.
Is Peavy going to be a top 5 SP at the end of the year?
AJ Mass (11:32 AM)
A very good chance. After all he's #37 in my rankings now with a 5+ ERA, and I firmly believe that stat will steadily decline.
No, an 0-4 hurts RBI, R, and HR by not accumulating them.
AJ Mass (11:34 AM)
Yes, you don't accumulate them, but you don't lose ground either. That's the point. If a hitter hits 10 HRs in one week, and then doesn't hit one for a month, you still have 10 HRs from him. If a pitcher has a 2.00 ERA today and then two weeks later has an ERA of 6.00, all you have is the 6.00, not the 2.00.
Jonathan (Muscle Shoals, AL)
Wouldn't a pitcher's bad outing hurting you in two categories make a good pitcher even more valuable than a hitter?
AJ Mass (11:37 AM)
When it comes to the end of the season looking back, yes, the Cy Young winner was more valuable than say, the 20th best hitter. But in evaluating the talent as of today, the best hitters have provided more overall value, and that value can't be undone, making SP evaluation always more tenuous.
Kevin, Milford NH
Name Game: Dexter Fowler or Mike Cameron Thanks
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
Right now I'd still take Cameron. I love Fowler, and his speed is very tempting, but even with the 5 SB game, he's not nearly as valuable.
Hey, AJ. Do you know what process is used to reschedule rain-delayed games? There doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason to it. Sometimes it's a double-header the next day, sometimes it gets moved to an off day between series, sometimes it's the same week, sometimes it's pushed to MUCH later in the season. Is there some pattern I'm missing, or is it purely a guessing game for fantasy owners who face rain threats for the week?
AJ Mass (11:41 AM)
It is purely a guessing game, but the upshot is that in April, if the visiting team is going to be making another trip into that city, they'll schedule it for then, when the weather has a better chance of being OK. The Texas rainout for Wednesday was moved to Friday, primarily because there's a high chance today's game gets rained out as well, and they'd rather not schedule two double-dips for later in the year, so they scheduled it for Friday.
Points Man Rant
This why "Roto" is so rediculous! Go join a points league. Categories Schmategories. I love seeing one of my guys hit a HR and thinking, "He just got me 6 pts." Points are points, baby! Roto is horribly unbalanced. Are SB's worth more than HR's in real life? I think not!
AJ Mass (11:43 AM)
Different strokes for different folks, PMR. And unless your points league has some negative events as well as positive, I don't think that's very realistic either.
Double Dip for you today?! Hooray! I am hurting at 3B - i know the mantra that it's early, but i feel duped on Davis. Is there a guy you would target at 3B that might not be widely known now, that will produce this year? Like a Mat Gamel or something?
AJ Mass (11:46 AM)
I wasn't all that high on Davis, and the irony is that he's putting up exactly the same numbers as Tex. Of course, that's what you were hoping for when you drafted him, right? Sigh. Gamel is definitely the best prospect out there at 3B, but as for 09 impact? A guy like Inge might be your best bet.
Weaker position: 3b or SS? Also are you buying the effect the new Shea is having on Mets? If so, do you downgrade David Wright?
AJ Mass (11:48 AM)
I think right now SS is weaker, but 2B is blowing both of them away. As for the Mets, I can't believe that if Omir Santos is hitting home runs that you can blame the ballpark for anyone's poor play. Wright is not doing the job on his own merits.
Matt LaPorta (should be Cleveland)
What are the odds I get called up with Hafner on the DL? I mean, I'm the next Ryan Braun right?
AJ Mass (11:49 AM)
There's nothing left for you to prove in Triple-A. The only reason you're not called up is $$$.
Davis is not hitting while Kinsler, Cruz and even Blalock are outperforming him! Pre-season hype is remarkable! Do you see the other three "under the radar" Rangers keeping up their blistering pace?
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
None should continue the blistering pace, but Kinsler is the best bet to finish the season in the neighborhood he's in now. I still think Cruz is out-kicking his coverage a bit.
You talked about Iannetta in OOTB. Would you rather have a platooning catcher like John Baker who won't kill you in BA but won't play full time versus Iannetta for the rest of the year?
AJ Mass (11:53 AM)
At catcher, I'd rather have the part-timer, so long as there is some contribution in the way of HR, RBIs and runs. After all, 100 ABs of.250 hurts me less than 300 ABs of .250.
Kelly (Buffalo, NY)
Dear Russ Martin, Please start hitting. Sincerely, Your Owners
AJ Mass (11:54 AM)
You know, you "experts" hate to admit you are wrong...Nelson Cruz is out kicking his coverage? He is still going to be good for .260-25-80 minimum, which is solid.
AJ Mass (11:55 AM)
Yes, and also far below the current pace of .238-36-102, so I don't see how what I said is any different from what you just did.
Can Asdrubal Cabrera keep up his hot start?
AJ Mass (11:56 AM)
He's bound to come back to earth a bit, but top-100 hitter for the season? Very real likelihood.
Cole Hamels (Philly)
I will be flat out amazing for the rest of this year. Do you agree?
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
No. No I do not.
Dear David Wright, Please stop blaming me. You're embarrassing yourself. Sincerely, CitiField
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
Does 25-100-100-15-.280 sound reasonable for Choo?
AJ Mass (11:59 AM)
Does that stat line sound reasonable for Choo? Will Danny Gokey be the next American Idol? Can Jack save the island? Will Echo save the Dollhouse? Is Izzy going to make it to the wedding? Is Sylar going to remember his true identity? The answer to at least one of these questions will be answered at 3pm, when we'll see the exciting conclusion to "AJ's Fantasy Doubleheader Chat for Thursday" ---- stay tuned!