Fantasy Baseball w/AJ Mass
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AJ Mass (10:57 AM)
Good morning all. I've got a meeting with an airplane approaching quickly, so let's get cracking! Who's up first?
I have a Derrek Lee problem. Specifically... I have Derrek Lee. I guess that's not really a question
AJ Mass (10:59 AM)
Lee's been disappointing to be sure, and I'm afraid it may get worse before it gets better. Working on my May 15th-on ranks right now, and he's not in my Top 150.
ANGRY LEAGUE MEMBER
Keeper league, Adam Jones for Hamilton fair?
AJ Mass (11:00 AM)
It's hard enough to project one month ahead, let alone several seasons... I'm very high on Jones, and would rather have him, but to say it's "unfair" is probably a bit extreme.
Greg (Ellicott City)
Im trying to deal Atkins for OF help. What caliber player should I be looking for?
AJ Mass (11:01 AM)
I'm not sure you'll be able to get a big power bat in return. My best guess would be a Magglio Ordonez type, or an injured Vlad. Possibly a buy low on BJ Upton. Just a few ideas.
What do you see from Cole Hamels going forward?
AJ Mass (11:03 AM)
I worry about Hamels, but I'm trying to remain optimistic. I'd say he's just outside the Top 100 fantasy players going forward, with tons of upside if he starts to click.
I asked 2 weeks ago in one of these chats if we should be buying J. Upton. The reply was it's just a "hot streak". What do you think today? Are we seeing his true potential manifesting this season?
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
I think we are. I've been pretty steady touting Justin over BJ in the Upton Wars, and I don't see any reason to switch my support any time soon.
Greg (Ellicott City)
Fill in the blank. Once he is called up, Weiters will be a top _____ catcher.
AJ Mass (11:05 AM)
15 (for 2009).
JasonG (St. Louis)
Fill in the blank: If I wanted to sell high on Adam Jones for another outfielder, I would target _____.
AJ Mass (11:06 AM)
no less than Curtis Granderson or Matt Kemp. Charles Nelson Reilly says *a martini*
Rollins or Berkman for the rest of the year?
AJ Mass (11:07 AM)
Lance. I have far more confidence in his increasing his BA to respectability than I do in J-Roll getting the power numbers on track.
Considering dropping Maholm for either Hochevar or Porcello, what should I do?
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
Go for it. I like Maholm, but not immensely married to him. I like Hochevar a bit more than Porcello, though. I'd lean towards the Royal.
Eric Byrnes .... go!
AJ Mass (11:10 AM)
... and the catcher nails him at second base. Awwwww! Not the Byrnes of old. Still rosterable, but not by a lot.
Boomer, New York
Bang for the $: Mark Reynolds, Scott Rolen, Mark Teahen?
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
Assuming you're paying the same amount of $ on each, I'm more in favor of Reynolds.
Sean (Madison, WI)
Better keeper Aaron Hill or Ryan Zimmerman?
AJ Mass (11:13 AM)
I think Zimmerman is the better keeper, though Hill is not going to go away from the fantasy leaderboards anytime soon.
Which guy would you rather stash right now...Weiters or Manny?
AJ Mass (11:14 AM)
Manny, assuming it's not a keeper league. I'll take his stats from July on over whatever Wieters does, even if he's up a month earlier.
Myself and Chris Davis 4 Liriano and Teixiera?
AJ Mass (11:16 AM)
I'd stand pat. I just think this is such a magical year for Greinke that I'm not letting him go, even if Tex is an upgrade over Davis.
Chris Davis (Texas)
Did you Know I have struck out in every single game I have played in but one. Who would be an equal value that I could be traded for right now?
AJ Mass (11:17 AM)
Actually, the Tex deal probably would work if his owner is sour on him. But more likely, James Loney or Adam LaRoche.
What type of hitter could you get for me?
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
I think you're a spot starter right now, so you're only going to get a UT player in return and I don't think I'd deal you for an Andruw Jones or Willie Bloomquist.
YO YO YO YO should i sell high on Jay Bruce-nasty or should i hold on to him and what are his numbers really gonna be
AJ Mass (11:21 AM)
I think I'd sell high on him given the right deal. Even if the power numbers stick, the RBIs may not come in that lineup as easily as they would with a player with more around him.
Greg (Ellicott City)
Who has been the biggest fantasy suprise for you this year?
AJ Mass (11:23 AM)
I certainly didn't think Orlando Hudson was going to be relevant at all, but of all the top players I think Jason Bay's production is probably the one I am most surprised at, in a good way.
Isnt it natural for owners to expect a statistical regression for Adam Jones? Wouldnt now be the time to sell high?
AJ Mass (11:24 AM)
1) There's no reason to expect a regression, but the instinct will certainly be there, due to the *gambler's fallacy* 2) If most owners do fear a regression, it is not the time to sell high, since you won't get value for Jones, since most owners fear a regression.
What the deal yo?
Why does "Greg (ellicot city) get every one of his questions answered??????? Your cousin AJ???
AJ Mass (11:25 AM)
Honestly, I don't keep track of the names when I pick questions. I just pick the ones that are simple and straight to the point and seem to me to have the most, ahem, mass appeal.
Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado
Am I worthy of a roster spot in a ten team mixed league?
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
The ERA is nice, but given where you're pitching and the fact that you haven't been winning, I can't justify owning you in a 10-team mixed.
Simple and straight to the point: Kershaw or Volquez for this year?
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
Bill (St. Louis)
Verlander, sell high or thank God you drafted him?
AJ Mass (11:28 AM)
I didn't draft him, so I'm not thanking anyone. He's proving me wrong, and while I'm still expecting a meltdown, I'm certainly riding the double-digit strikeout games for now if he's on my roster.
Gavin Floyd's been awful this year. Any chance of a bounce back? Is Randy Wolf an upgrade at this point?
AJ Mass (11:30 AM)
Wolf is definitely an upgrade at this point. It's hard to justify having Floyd in your lineup right now, with the 6+ ERA. He's wild like Tone Loc, yo!
Alex Rios (Toronto)
Am I going to pick it up? I'm definitely not playing up to my 40-50 ADP
AJ Mass (11:31 AM)
I don't think you're that far off, Alex. I've got your fantasy production ranked at 66 right now, so we're looking at a slight slip. Not all that concerned here.
OH COME ON
trying to get a handle on Verlander - can you compare him to other starters value-wise
AJ Mass (11:32 AM)
Wandy, Yovani, Saunders
3B for the rest of the year...Cantu or Huff? The both seem pretty even to me.
AJ Mass (11:34 AM)
They are indeed pretty close. I'd lean to Cantu because of the average, but ask me tomorrow and I might flip on it. It's really a coin toss.
You are putting Yovani and Saunders in the same tier?
AJ Mass (11:36 AM)
Yes I am. Certainly Saunders isn't striking out anybody, but in every other category, he's been better than Gallardo so far, and I don't think it's a result of luck.
that is crazy! saunders? a guy who may strike out 100 vs guys who may eclipse 180. give me any of those 3 120 xs out of 100. u say crazy stuff just to get a rise out of people
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
Last time I checked, K's is only one category, and many leagues don't even use it.
joe (ny, ny)
question about the gamblers fallacy, which we hear a lot about. i understand it completely for games of chance like one flip of a coin or the spin of a roulette wheel (no memory). but, does it still apply in cases like baseball players where there is, at least for the more established players, a career average that, in most cases, a player will trend towards. so, if a career .280 average player is batting .380 the chance that he makes an out on his next at bat does not change but the chance that he under-performs over the next month, for example, is increased unless there is some reason to believe that he has gained 100 points in average. i ask because most trades/acquisitions are made for, in theory, the long term. thanks for the clarification, AJ.
AJ Mass (11:41 AM)
Joe, it's a good question, and one which we can't answer completely here due to time constraints. Essentially, there are far too many factors that play into each at-bat to assume that a player can or can't keep up a level that is unusual for him. A career .100 hitter may have suddenly found his stroke. A career .330 hitter may be old and on the decline. Each at-bat is an independent event with no memory, and while skill plays a part in predicting results, matchups and luck play just as much a role.
Funky Cold Medina
Bench Rollins for Furcal indefinitely?
AJ Mass (11:43 AM)
I'm not laughing to the bank with Furcal either. I think I'd look at the daily matchups and decide accordingly.
Kyle Lohse is being dropped like a bad habit in many leagues...Is it justified to do such a thing this early, even though he has the powerful Cardinals offense to fall back on?
AJ Mass (11:44 AM)
Yeah, I'm not on board with dropping Lohse, though I'm not envisioning he'll rise higher than No .3 fantasy starter. Still, that's better than waiver wire fodder.
Vic (Brooklyn, NY)
In a vaccuum, would you rather have Gallardo or Youklis? Lind or Nolasco?
AJ Mass (11:46 AM)
In general, I'm a hitter guy over pitchers. But I'll make an exception for a Top-10 pitcher versus a Top-40 hitter like Youk. Lind over Nolasco, though by a mile.
Matt (Annapolis, MD)
Better bet going forward - Fowler or Pierre?
AJ Mass (11:47 AM)
Pierre this season, Fowler for 2010 and beyond.
tyger (bettendorf, IA)
choose ONE: when both up, David Price or Tommy Hanson?
AJ Mass (11:48 AM)
Price. If I'm rolling the dice on a young pitcher, I'd rather have the one who has at least showed me he can handle the MLB level before.
Football question: Is Addai nearing the end of fantasy relevance?
AJ Mass (11:49 AM)
Really? Joseph Addai questions in May? I do not like him. I will not like him. He has more fantasy baseball relevance right now than NFL-wise.
Brandon Inge (Motor City)
Has my usefulness run it's course?
AJ Mass (11:50 AM)
I wouldn't say its run its course, but you're on a decline. If not for the C eligibility, I might not be as big a fan... but you have it.
Miguel Tejada or Asdrubal Cabera?
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
They actually rank back-to-back in my current values. I'll give the nod to Asdrubal, but that's just my gut talking.
Why do experts seem to think I'll bounce back, I've been AWFUL with no signs of improvement??
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
Call us all Fox Mulders, but we want to believe. Still, you are correct, Nolasco really isn't rosterable right now, if we're being honest.
Gus (on a bus)
buying what Johnny Cueto is selling?
AJ Mass (11:53 AM)
I am, I am. He's being smarter with his pitches this year and not trying to K everyone in sight. A fantasy No. 2 starter the rest of the way.
Is it now time to drop me in all leagues, even NL only?
AJ Mass (11:54 AM)
Sadly, that time was about a month ago.
Kevin Slowey (MIN)
Start me today vs. Det, or sit this one out to see if I can get back on track?
AJ Mass (11:55 AM)
I'm starting you. If you're not on track, I may cut you outright... but I think last time was the charade.
Nicholas Gerz (NYC)
Will Callaspo keep his job after Gordon returns?
AJ Mass (11:55 AM)
If he's still hitting .330 he will.
Mike Napoli (Anaheim, CA)
Will I still be DHing when Vlad returns?
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
Truth be told, I thought you'd be DH'ing far more than you have with Vlad out. So, no.
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
Gang, I gotta fly. So I'll see you all the next time on Villa Alegre! Thanks for the Q's!