Fantasy Baseball w/AJ Mass
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Fantasy Archive: Fantasy Home Page
AJ Mass (10:59 AM)
Good morning gang! Let's talk fantasy baseball for the next hour! Still trying to get over that darn red card in yesterday's USA-Italy match, so it's good to focus on a sport we invented. Who is up first?
Last Place Fantasy Club (Feeding Frenzy)
In a H2H points keeper league that heavily favors streaming pitching. My squad is in last place with studs like Pujols, Pedroia, and V-Mart. I'm already thinking about next year. Who would you target in trade talks with an emphasis on keepers? We keep 10.
AJ Mass (11:02 AM)
I wouldn't trade Albert - he's got 10 more years in him at an MVP level. But I'd focus on the young OF corps - guys like DigDug (AJones) and Pence. Secure the OF and you can draft MI early.
Mr. On Time (FL)
Im on time but it seems your not. Who are your top 5 overall from here on out?
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
Actually, I was early, which is on-time if you are Coach Coughlin, but I digress... Top 5 from here on out? Carl Crawford, Albert Pujols, Raul Ibanez, Mark Reynolds, Justin Morneau
Bernhard Langer (Germany)
Name me 5 players you would sell high on?
AJ Mass (11:05 AM)
Kemp, J.Upton, Choo, Bourn, Zobrist
Joey Roogan (FL)
What kind of value does A-Rod have right now? Is he ranked in your top 5?
AJ Mass (11:07 AM)
That batting average is going to have to improve an awful lot to get that high. He's not even close right now.
AJ, i've been patient all season long on J.J. Hardy. But I've about had enough. The best SS available from free agency is Callaspo. I should make the switch, right?
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
I thought Hardy was going to go 0-for-3 in one inning last night - that's how bad he's been. However, in fairness, he's hit a lot of "at 'ems" - it's a lot of bad luck. Still, I prefer Callaspo.
Fact Check (NY)
You see, the Mark Reynolds in the top 5 going forward is why so many people find it hard to follow any of your advice. He's not even top 5 right now and he's playing way over his head - you're saying that not only will he sustain what he's doing, but he'll improve in relation to the rest of the league? Wow, dude.
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
Fact Check - I do think he'll sustain what he is doing. That's my opinion, and it comes down to a question of how you assess value. He's actually No. 4 in fantasy value in my stat analysis right now... and even if I end up being wrong I stand by the assessment.
Zobrist is legit.
AJ Mass (11:13 AM)
He is legit, but in order to sell high on someone, they have to be high to begin with, so don't take my inclusion of him in that list as a negative - it's actually a compliment.
Mark Reynolds...#4 overall...wow!
AJ Mass (11:15 AM)
If he were batting .230, then no. But .280? With 17 HR and double digit steals to boot... plus 40 runs/RBIs? That's 5-category contribution.
Why sell high on J. Upton? You don't think he is what he is doing now? Isn't this what the so called "experts" predict he would do?
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
This is the misconception I get hammered on a lot from people. Let me clarify. When I am asked who to sell high on, that doesn't mean I am recommending you trade this person. As I said before, to be included on this list, you have to be doing quite well. And while I love Justin, I do think he is slightly overachieving with his current statline - that's all I mean by "sell high." It's a player with negative "Momentum"
Confused (Some place)
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
Just my personal nickname for Adam Jones - after all, he's not Pacman.
AJ, please rank these CIs, for the rest of this season: Adam LaRoche, Garrett Atkins and Kendry Morales.
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
LaRoche, Morales, Atkins - unless Garrett gets traded, then I reserve the right to reassess.
Blind Bob (Providence)
Where'd the chat go?
AJ Mass (11:22 AM)
It's still here... although I am told there are a still a few kinks to be worked out. I guess sometimes the posts come in bunches? I don't see the screen from the same angle as you guys do, so I can't tell how it is going...
You know and I know it, but no one else has noticed that Reynolds is on pace to go 40-30 with 100 each in R/RBI. Even if he slows a little and drops a little batting average that's still rock solid fantasy value.
AJ Mass (11:23 AM)
And that's why James from WA just won the "AJ chat questioner of the day" award.
Whoa there...I was actually about to make a move for BOURN... Any potential sleepers (i.e. not CRAWFORD, ELLSBURY or BJ UPTON) for Steals that I should move for instead/would provide better (key word - ) value?
AJ Mass (11:25 AM)
No, I'd still go with Bourn in your case - just be aware that SB is the only category you're asking him to give you.
I love your confrontational style and willingness to put your neck out there. That said, who are your top 5 starters from here on out? Do you have anyone in the top-tier that might surprise people, ala Reynolds?
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
I choo-choo-choose... Roy Halladay,Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Chad Billingsley and Justin Verlander. Though Jered and Slowey are also in my Top 10.
Alex (New York)
Honestly I don't want to be rude, but there is no way around it...how can you work in this field and say Reynolds will be top 5 from here on out? It could really be the single dumbest thing I have ever heard an "expert" say. Also, Morneau has been a HUGE first half guy the past 2 years, so that is also a pretty poor bet to be top 5 the rest of the way. Can you at least explain how you can pick those guys at peak value to maintain or exceed their value the rest of the way when their track record shows otherwise?
AJ Mass (11:30 AM)
Because "track record" is what drives 90 percent of the analysts and fantasy players out there, and essentially its an extension of the "gambler's fallacy" - just because Player A has played poorly in his career in September doesn't mean he won't hit .300 this season. That's not a reliable history to judge on, IMO. Obviously it matters that a player has no power or no speed, but performance surges and declines are part of baseball. At some point players go to the next level and at some point they turn into Big Papi.
Charlie (Syracuse, NY)
I've heard that a high BABIP is sustainable for faster hitters. Is there a similar "exception to the rule" for pitchers?
AJ Mass (11:32 AM)
BABIP is another stat that people aren't using properly in regards to hitters. It's not the high or low BABIP - it's the relation of that BABIP to past season's BABIPs that matters. Look at Pujols - his BABIP is .283, that's 40 points below his career average. He's actually unlucky this year!
Author! Author! (the Library)
Which Author would be the best Fantasy Baseball player? Really Fantasize...J.D. Salinger SP, NYM - Pitches four flawless complete games, but spends rest of the career on DL with PTSD.William S. Burroughs SP, Hou - Long, lanky he's a pock-faced Big Unit but gets into trouble for going all William Tell after a bad inning. Gets suspended for using needles.Ernest Hemingway 1B, Col - With a short, powerful stroke he's a master of the longball with a freakish slugging pct, but can string together bore inducing slumps midseason before finishing strong.Clifford Irving LF, FA - He's a gifted theif, but his BABIP shows his ability to get on base is a complete hoax. After a bidding war spearheaded by the Yankees, a short stint exposes him and is currently without a contract.Chuck Palahniuk C, Sea - His batting is secondary to his ability to throw opposing batters off their games by reciting grueling passages from his novels. He's got potential to be one of the greats.
AJ Mass (11:33 AM)
Couldn't not post this as well written as it is - KUDOS.
Jose Contreras (Chicago)
Have we discussed my return yet? Am I for real or will I disappoint (again)?
AJ Mass (11:34 AM)
Looking like this year's Liriano, no? I have to think he just needed a little more time to recover from the injury and April was too soon.
Seriously, I've been reading your articles and chats all year and I'm convinced that we're all being "Punk'd" by you -- your advice is simply too bad and illogical to be honest. Is this just an elaborate prank or are you that clueless as to fantasy baseball?
AJ Mass (11:37 AM)
Do you ever actually go back to see if I'm right, or do you just disagree with me in the here and now and assume I was wrong. I'm not infallible, but I do realize I look at things from a different point of view. If you want to hear the same advice you can get anywhere else, by all means, go elsewhere. But my advice is all based on solid statistical analysis and observation. And I'm far cuter than Ashton Kutcher, too.
Dont forget the 230 k's Reynolds is on pace for.
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
Unless that's a category, why wouldn't I forget about it?
So, I'm not in your Top 5? Is that because of injury conerns? Mets' offense? Something else. Should my owners be trading me while my value's still high? And what for?
AJ Mass (11:39 AM)
You're No. 11 right now, and it is a combo of the long balls you're giving up right now, and the concerns over the Mets' offense as a whole, but that far from me calling for a Johan sell-off.
Adam (Houston )
It's kind of ridiculous how people beg for your opinion on things, and when it doesnt align with what they feel, they bash you. We all have opinions...can't we all just get along! HaBTW I hope youre right on Reynolds...he's been carrying my team the last week or so.
AJ Mass (11:40 AM)
Well said, Adam. I always said the best movie critic I ever saw was Jeffrey Lyons - because I nearly always disagreed with him, so he was more reliable than any other critic in my eyes.
I can appreciate that you don't just regurgitate the same things that the other analysts say. It seems like everyone has the same advice most of the time. But, I am still not as excited about Reynolds. Are his 13 SBs really what puts him into your top 5? Don't forget that he had 6 of those SBs in a 2 day span (including 4 in one game). If you throw out those 6 SBs, he only has 7 SBs.
AJ Mass (11:43 AM)
Certainly that "inflates" his value in the past, but they all count if you started him. But given the K totals, the fact that he still has an OBP of .371 actually speaks to a more patient Mark Reynolds at the plate - I like what I'm seeing in his approach.
AJ, these clowns bashing you for picking Reynolds as top 5 are complete morons, and i GUARANTEE you that if they owned him, they'd be agreeing with you. How can these clowns say you're wrong so confidently??? These guys may want to realize that last year was Reynolds FIRST FULL SEASON in the MLB and he knocked out 28 hr's and stole double digit bags. He is young as hell and still in development. There is reason to believe he will continue to improve, because that's what most good young players do as they get more experience. The argument against you is irrational and emotionally charged (because they don't own him). I back you up 100%.
AJ Mass (11:43 AM)
Sorry, Omar, I already awarded today's prize to the gentleman from WA.
Is it safe to drop Hawkins, is Valverde back to closing?
AJ Mass (11:45 AM)
Valverde is back. Cooper said he wanted him to pitch one game in the setup role before moving him into the closer position, and that actually ended up being a "hold" - barring an injury setback, he's the man going forward.
where is Lincecum in your rankings? how about Nolasco?
AJ Mass (11:47 AM)
Lincecum is 7. Nolasco is off the charts, those early troubles dropped him so low, it will take a few more decent outings for me to consider trusting him.
Harry Carey (Chicago)
If you were a hot dog and you were starving, would you eat yourself?
AJ Mass (11:48 AM)
Sandberg backwards is Grebdnas!
Do you have CC top 10 going forward? How about King Felix?
AJ Mass (11:49 AM)
CC is 22 - ERA in Yankee Stadium will suffer. Felix is 15.
Just seeing if I can post without a name. Also, where do Teix and Hanley fall in your rankings?
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
Yes you can, apparently. Tex is 11 for hitters right now. That huge May certainly can't go unnoticed... As for Hanley, he is No. 25, as it's apparent he's going to be rested more often than usual with the nagging injury not going away. That's going to cut his stats down.
Where can we find your rankings?
AJ Mass (11:53 AM)
Unfortunately, I don't have a regular column that posts them - I'm usually working on Out of the Box and Daily Notes -- but write your local Congressman, or the powers that be at ESPN. If enough people demand it, they'll listen!
What are your thoughts on Xavier Nady? Ive been holding onto him since I read he's a week away from coming back? Any udates?
AJ Mass (11:55 AM)
I think he comes back in the next week or two... hard to be sure with a lot of road NL games ahead. You've been holding him this long - might as well stay in.
how can you relate a player's tendencies to the "gambler's fallacy"? A coin has a 50% chance of coming up tails every time, but i would bet a player who starts slow or fast does not have a 50% chance of reversing the trend. a player's history means something, it is not random chance
AJ Mass (11:58 AM)
No, but what I am saying is that people say "Player X is batting .350, but he is a career .280 hitter, ergo no way he can keep up the .350 pace" - Well, that's ridiculous. Of course he can - and that's the argument that is flawed, just like betting on red because black came up the last 10 times is flawed.
Ryan (Augusta, GA)
Now that Brandon Webb is on the 60-day DL should i still keep him or drop him for Edison Volquez, Joe Saunders, Andy Pettitte, or Ricky Nolasco?
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
Single-season league, I'd let him go to get some stats now if I needed to, though I don't really love any of those four right now, I might take a chance with Saunders.
ETA for LaPorta? What is his 2009 fantasy impact?
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
He already ETA's and then departed, my friend. He'll be back in September, but I think you can forget about impact until 2010.
AJ Mass (12:02 PM)
That's all the time we have for today gang. As always, I enjoy the spirited debate. We'll see you the next time on Villa Alegre!