Chat with Brad Edwards
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, resident BCS expert Brad Edwards will drop by to chat about what the latest BCS standings mean to the nation's top teams going forward.
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More Brad Edwards: Chats
If Nebraska wins, then what?
Brad Edwards (3:05 PM)
The biggest result is that the opponent for the SEC winner in the BCS championship game will be either TCU or Cincinnati... or the SEC title game loser (more on that later).Another result would be that the Big 12 would almost certainly get two teams into the BCS (Nebraska as the champ, Texas as an at-large), which would likely cause Boise State to be on the outside looking in.
Melvin Monroe (Fort Worth, Texas)
If Nebraska beats Texas, do you think that Cincinnati will jump TCU and play for the NC game?
Brad Edwards (3:11 PM)
It's a tough call. I'd give a slight edge to TCU, because Cincinnati can't make up that gap with the computers alone. They will have to swing some voters to move them ahead of TCU on their ballots. It's certainly possible, but we have no idea how many voters would be willing to drop TCU, regardless of how impressive Cincinnati may look on Saturday. With Pitt losing to West Virginia, a win by Cincinnati over Pitt might not seem as impressive to some voters as it would have if the Panthers had won the Backyard Brawl. But if Oregon State wins the Pac-10 on Thursday, that could potentially impact voters, since Cincy won at Oregon State earlier in the season. Bottom Line: TCU vs Cincy is too close to call.
Why does evrything affiliate the Big East Champ with the Orange Bowl, when all of the bowl projection pages have Cincinnati (assuming they win) in the Sugar Bowl? Which one is it, Miami or New Orleans?
Brad Edwards (3:15 PM)
There is nothing that says the Big East champ goes to the Orange Bowl. Only the ACC champion is locked into that game. My best guess right now is that the Big East champ will likely end up in the Sugar, although there's a slight possibility that Cincy would be given consideration for the Fiesta, as well. I don't believe the Orange wants the Bearcats back there for a second year in a row. Fans usually don't travel as well when going to the same bowl in consecutive years, especially if the second year isn't for the national championship.
JP (Tualatin, OR)
Please tell me that if USC wins Saturday vs Az they will NOT get a BCS invite over Boise. When I heard they were still in the mix I was incredulous. They do have to sneak into the top 14 which is not likely right?
Brad Edwards (3:17 PM)
I don't care if USC does sneak into the top 14 (which seems highly unlikely). I'm not aware of any BCS bowl that is giving serious consideration to any three-loss team for an at-large pick. Not this season.
Sara (Boston, MA)
If Texas beats Nebraska in a close game, is there any chance another team could jump Texas to play the SEC champ for the national title?
Brad Edwards (3:18 PM)
Are there any situations that would make a UF-Ala rematch in the NC?
Brad Edwards (3:32 PM)
If Texas loses, if the SEC Championship Game is a classic, AND if Florida is the losing team, I can see the rematch being a possibility. I'm not saying Cincinnati has to lose to make it possible, but assume Cincy also loses for the sake of an explanation that's easier to follow. In this scenario, the spot opposite Alabama in the BCS title game would be between TCU and Florida. I have little doubt that, even with the loss to Bama, the Gators would still be ranked ahead of TCU in the computers. This means the Horned Frogs would need to be ahead of the Gators on about two-thirds of the human ballots to make up the difference.
Brad Edwards (3:32 PM)
It's impossible for me to say how the voters would respond to this situation, but I can ask a couple of questions. (1) Some voters take the "Rank the two best teams 1 and 2" approach to filling out their ballots. Which team are they more likely to rank higher, TCU of Florida? (2) Other voters take the approach of "Who do I want to see play for the BCS title?" Which team are they more likely to put at No. 2? My gut feeling is that most of the first group would rank Florida second. And I don't think all voters in the second group are opposed to creating an SEC rematch, even though I think the majority would side with TCU. I also think the second group is larger than the first group.
Brad Edwards (3:32 PM)
In this scenario, I think the odds are better that TCU comes out in front, but I sure don't think the odds against an SEC rematch are astronomical.
Jason (Arlington, VA)
TV ratings for VT vs Penn State would probably rank #3 behind title game and Rose Bowl. Is that enough for Fiesta to take Penn State over Iowa and VT over a 2nd mid-major/Boise?
Brad Edwards (3:34 PM)
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Who gets the final Big Ten BCS bid: PSU or Iowa?
Brad Edwards (3:36 PM)
I think it might depend on which bowl makes the pick. My feeling is that the Fiesta would probably go Iowa if it takes a Big Ten team with its first choice. If it doesn't go Big Ten there, the Orange Bowl will have a chance to do so, and I think the Orange may be a little more likely to go Penn State.
If Texas loses, that could give us TV viewers either a Texas vs Florida/Alabama loser in the Sugar Bowl or Texas vs Georgia Tech/Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Correct? Would make for a great matchup.
Brad Edwards (3:40 PM)
Since the Orange will pick before the Sugar, I think that's where Texas would land as an at-large.
To keep this going, If nebraska wins does the chances of Iowa making the BCS drop dramatically?
Brad Edwards (3:43 PM)
I think the only team that sees its chances drop dramatically with a Big 12 upset is Boise State. As stated previously, I think this would cause the Orange to take Texas, which would still allow the Fiesta to take Iowa (as Nebraska's opponent).
Is it possible the Fiesta would choose not to pick TCU and BSU to prevent a rematch of last year's poinsettia bowl, as well as a non-AQ against a non-AQ (which wouldn't show anything about non-AQ strength vs. AQ strength)?
Brad Edwards (3:47 PM)
I don't think the Fiesta wants TCU vs. Boise State. With its first pick, I think the Fiesta either guarantees big ticket sales by taking Iowa or - if Cincinnati beats Pitt - takes TCU with the first pick, knowing that the Orange will grab a Big Ten team and leave the Fiesta a TCU-Cincy matchup. Sure, it doesn't sound great on paper, but it would be a matchup of undefeated, top-5 teams. No BCS bowl outside of the title game has ever matched unbeaten teams before.
It there really a BCS formula, because to me it seems like a popularity contest and not a body of work. Teams are getting in based how strong their conference is supposed to be pre season. Texas is going to a National Championship without beating anybody. Also Penn State is eyeing a BCS bowl with out defeating one top 25 team
Brad Edwards (3:51 PM)
The "BCS formula" is only used to decide 1 vs. 2, so in many ways, popularity has always been a factor when it comes to the other bowls filling out their spots. And with the BCS formula being two-thirds driven by the polls, you can certainly argue that's occasionally a popularity contest, as well. There's no doubt that voters can be influenced by factors such as tradition and preseason perception.
Please tell me how Texas has a better argument over a Cinci team that would have went to Oregon State and beat a possible pac 10 champ or runner up and a top 15 Pitt team on the road. Who has Texas even beat???
Brad Edwards (3:54 PM)
See previous response. Also, you have to keep in mind this isn't strictly about the resumes of the teams. Even if Texas doesn't have the same quality of opposition, voters have every right to believe the Longhorns are better than the Bearcats.
Assume Texas wins. At large picks are SEC loser, TCU, Boise St, and either Iowa or Penn St?
Brad Edwards (3:56 PM)
That's the way I see it. Where those teams go could be influenced by who wins the Big East and who wins the ACC. Not sure the Fiesta would pick Cincy unless it was to create a matchup with TCU, and I'm not sure the Orange wants a TCU-Clemson rematch.
Brad, is it possible for boise to go to the Orange Bowl?
Brad Edwards (3:58 PM)
Maybe if Clemson wins the ACC, and the Fiesta takes a Big Ten team. If the Orange doesn't want a TCU-Clemson rematch, it would probably choose Boise State.
Had Bama lost to Auburn and beat Fla, Pitt beats Cincy, Neb beats TX, could there have been Boise/TCU NC game? Would the BCS have allowed this? Would the world implode?
Brad Edwards (4:00 PM)
In this scenario, I think we would've been spared from world implosion, because Alabama probably would've finished No. 1 in the BCS (but at least would've been No. 2).
I suspect the matchup everyone wants to see is the SEC championship game loser against TCU. Will we get it? TCU against Iowa would be a joke of a game.
Brad Edwards (4:02 PM)
I have a hard time seeing TCU fall all the way to the Sugar, because the Fiesta and Orange would both have to pass on them. I agree that it's a matchup everyone would want to see, and New Orleans is actually the most convenient BCS destination for the TCU fan base. But it probably won't happen.
Brad Edwards (4:04 PM)
Thanks everyone for the questions today. With five automatic BCS bids being determined this week, it should be a fun watch. Won't make up for all of the boring weeks we've had leading up to it, but it should be entertaining. Take care!