Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Hey, Chonad O'Brinnington, sorry about your dad's show.
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Might as well start off with some humor. He ain't my Dad but I'm with Coco.
Ari (Houston, TX)
Gary Kubiak praised Glover Quinn. What do the metrics say?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
A 7.0 YPA is praiseworthy so I'd agree with Kubiak on that one.
Jeff (Appleton, WI)
KC, Love the chats, but the question I have is why did Charles Woodson get dpoy. I know he had great stats but I feel that Revis had a much better year. What is your take? What does their metrics show you?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Revis had a better YPA (3.5 vs. Woodson's 4.8) but Woodson showed more ability to impact the game with blitzing and intercepting. I gave him my PFWA/PFW DPOY vote because of that.
Chris (Rockville, MD)
Hi KC! What do the metrics say about Davone Bess? Can he be more than a slot receiver?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
It's possible, but I'm not sure the Fins want him to do be more than a slot receiver. His reception rates and short pass route running ability make him perfect for that role. To put it another way, if they have the next Wes Welker, maybe they will do the smart thing and keep him this time around.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
KC: Which match up of Viking WR/Dallas D-Back most benefits Minnesota on Sunday?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Terence Newman vs. any of the Vikes deep threats. He's been on the precipice of the 10-yard YPA mark all year long and hasn't been the vertical shutdown CB Dallas has needed him to be (or at least not on a consistent basis).
Ryan (San Diego)
KC, just read your two articles on the Jets game. Considering I think the Chargers run game has been picking up steam and the Chargers love to run those deep in routes with Floyd/Jackson and the team's success against the blitz, do you think this will be a close game?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
It might be close if the Jets can find a way to cover Gates. If they can't do that, SD will have success through the air there and will be able to run the ball. Those two things happen and it's a SD win by double digits.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
I was surprised to read your comments about LT today. I wrote 2+ years ago that LT was on the decline and the Chargers should trade him in a Hershel Walker deal and re-sign Turner. At that point in time, LT was stutter stepping behind the line of scrimmage instead of just hitting the hole. It was small tell, but it was there.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Please don't misunderstand the article. I am not saying LT is a great back anymore. His sub 5-yard YPA on all-win POA runs is a very poor total. All I am saying is that given the Jets run D and the state of the Chargers run game (which has been improving), LT and company should be able to top 100 yards in this game.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
Last week you said Romo has been a risk-taker this year. Is that same as saying he has a high bad decision percentage? Or are those separate things? Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
They are typically the same thing. Romo has been a risk taker his entire career but his bad decision totals have been solid in all but one season (and this is one of the solid seasons).
Coming into the season, it was supposed that William Gay's prior metrics would be more than sufficient to replace McFadden's departure. Gay seemed to have regressed this year, but definately in accordance with a larger sample size of passes thrown in his area. Do you think this year is more in line with his future metrics, or an abberation?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
I still have a couple of Steelers game left to break down but from the 12 game sample size I have, I have him with a 6.9 YPA total. That is solid but it is nowhere near as good as his sub 5-yard mark from 2008. It's more than good enough for a starting role on a team, however, so I'm not off of his bandwagon just yet.
Joey Rodriguez (Charlotte)
KC, Why Does Dallas keep starting Marian Barber over Felix Jones? Now that Jones is healthy it would seem that he is by far the better option.
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Because tackling Barber hurts. Dallas wears defenses down with him and then brings Jones in as a shock troop. Plus, I'll be they don't want to risk wearing Jones down by giving him those tougher early carries.
Ryan (San Diego)
Do you think LT's decline is because of the lack of opportunities? He used to be a guy who could get in that rhythm with 20-25 carries but he rarely gets that many anymore. Add in the struggles of the line blocking for him, do you think he could regain some of that or he's just done?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Ryan, the O line has been inconsistent this year (and sometimes has look simply awful) but LT's decline has to do with his being 30 years old. To put his sub 5-yard all-POA win YPA into perspective, it would have placed near the bottom of the league in 2008. A back has to be able to get yards on good blocking and LT can only get the league average on plays of that nature.
KC, what do you think about a McNabb for Peppers trade? Seems like it would make sense for both teams...I would miss McNabb, but I think it may be time to see if Kolb can lead the youth movement on the offensive side of the ball.
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
You are right in that it would make sense for both teams. I still tend to believe Reid when he says that McNabb will be his QB next year. This team's collapse wasn't #5's fault, or at least I wouldn't say that his performance was
did the colts do the right thing in resting their starters at the end of the year? It hasn't proven to work for them in the past.
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
I'd say no if only because Garcon and Collie are young wideouts who were just getting into their grooves by the time the team started to rest. If Indy had Marvin, Reggie and Dallas in their primes and did it, I might understand, but keeping Garcon and Collie in a groove would have been reason enough to keep them and Peyton in the game. And on a related note, check out the headline in The Onion that says "Colts to rest their starters for opening playoff game". Had me about falling out of my chair with laughter.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
KC: Maybe you wouldn't say it was #5s fault but there are about 70,000 irrational Eagles fans who would.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
If those fans had read the article on how DeSean Jackson isn't a matchup buster, or how Asante Samuel isn't a shutdown CB, or if they watched the O line and LB play in those last two games, they might not be jumping on #5's case.
How did the YPA basher, Lito Sheppard, do with Revis Island on the other side?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
A heckuva lot better than I would have thought he'd do coming into the season. A 6.0 YPA is very good for anyone but it is lights out for Sheppard.
KC what are the chances of the Cardinals making it back to the Super Bowl ?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
It's gonna boil down to their secondary. If they play like they did against GB, they won't make it out of this round of the playoffs. If they play to their talent level, Arizona has a good shot of repeating as NFC champs.
John (Columbus, OH)
Two things I just don't understand: 1. Charles Woodson getting credit for 'impacting' more games than Revis despite the fact that the Jets entire defensive scheme is built around what Revis does - and the clear difference in the strength of competition Revis faced as compared to Woodson.2. Why more people aren't talking about how weak the Chargers schedule was the last 11 games? They played a grand total of 3 teams with winning records, and two of those 3 games were at home.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
John, I do think that people in general understand just how dominant Revis is. The counter to the argument for Revis is that Woodson did not have anywhere near as strong of a scheme around him as Revis. The Packers overall pass coverage metrics were good but they weren't as good of a defense as the Jets in many ways. And as far as SD's schedule goes, I'm with you all the way.
With Revis and Woodson, it is understandable that Champ Bailey didn't make first team all-pro. But shouldn't he have made the second team?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
I have a few Denver games still to break down but he did have a 6.4 YPA in the 12 games I have completed at this point. That isn't a slam dunk All Pro number but it is very good, so an argument can be made in his favor.
Your Red Wings are one point out of a playoff spot. Are you feeling confident?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Mrs. Scientist is still so mad at the NHL officials for their poor Stanley Cup showing that we haven't watched a lot of hockey this year. If I can't turn her mind around on that one, it won't even matter if Detroit makes the playoffs.
Is Revis better than Nnamdi Asomugha, or is Revis getting all the hype because his name is easier to pronounce?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
He's statistically better but that's in large part because the Raiders have so many other weaknesses on their defense that no one tests Asomugha unless they absolutely have to or want to.
As a 49ers fan, I don't know what to make of Alex Smith. Have you had the chance to break down his play? Has his performance improved since his first 2 seasons in the league?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
By his own admission, Smith's strength is his intelligence. The 49ers new passing offense has allowed him to tap into that and he has shown much improvement in every metric because of it. I am very positive about his future as the SF starter.
Ryan (San Diego)
Cmon, are we really talking about the Chargers schedule? They had to go TO Dallas, who btw is red hot and held them to 10 points. They blew out a Titans team who was 7-1 goin in. Beat Philly, beat Cincy. The Jets best win on the year is the Bengals who were beat up and not even close to the Chargers talent level. And save the beating Texans and Pats stuff because that was the first two weeks of the season. For a majority of the year they padded their defensive stats against nobodies
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
I'll give you credit for all of those, but I still can't get four games against the Chiefs and Raiders out of my head. I'm not saying SD doesn't deserve their spot but all in all their schedule wasn't the most difficult around.
What about Sheldon Brown? Lots of people, even in Philly, have claimed hes more important then Samuel, do metrics back that?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
He had a better YPA last year (6.5 to 7.7) so from a coverage perspective he was the higher rated Philly CB last year.
Should I be worried that the colts have the leagues worst rushing attack?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Yes and no. Baltimore's biggest weakness is their secondary, or more specifically their lousy CB play, so Indy would attack that regardless of if they had a good run game.
Dominique Foxworth and Chris Carr (Baltimore)
I know it's blasphemous to say, but don't we play better when Ed Reed isn't freelancing? Or are we still dogs?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
I wouldn't use the word dogs but Foxworth is absolutely a coverage liability. Carr's metrics have been quite good this year (I have him at a 4.9 YPA total) so Reed should freelance in Foxworth's direction.
Ed Hochuli (Chat Ref)
Ryan, you've been whining about the Chargers all week. Even Buzzmaster warned you about it this morning. That's 15 yards for whining. Repeat 1st down.
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
The Chat Ref makes an appearance! Glad to have you here, Ed.
Desean Jackson (Philly)
What the Tweet do you mean I'm not a matchup buster?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Check out last week's Contrarian Thoughts article. It shows that Jackson tallied only 7.6 yards per attempt when facing a cornerback. He dominates when facing something other than a CB but put someone who can cover on him and he is simply average.
Ryan (San Diego)
I'm not whining, I'm correcting people putting out slighted information. Check the Jets record, they were 9-7 and beat 3 teams with winning records (Hou, NE and Cin) and 2 of those were in the first two weeks. Gimme a break
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Gotta give Ryan credit for bringing the info.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
How do you see the Boys/Vikings game playing out? After the past few weeks I'm feeling confident in the Cowboys, but they've burned me in the past. Give me hope, KC!
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
When I look at the Vikings secondary, I can't help but wonder who is going to cover Austin. Winfield is hurt and off of his game and the Vikes really have no one else who can keep up with Miles. I also see Dallas' strong forced bad decision rate showing (if memory serves correct, it was over 4% and was the best of the Wade Phillips Cowboys era) and that bodes well against Favre. I do see a Cowboys win this weekend.
Our passing game was atrocious this year. Was it the lack of playmakers, the weather, the matchups, the QB's or all of the above? I'm just wondering if we are going to have ANOTHER QB competition in training camp.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Nick, I think the Browns are a lot closer to having a solid passing game than is generally thought. Massaquoi looks like he could develop into a true #1 and the O line has ample talent (although they often play below their talent level). Give the Browns a good
Eric (San Diego)
Who do you think will have the bigger game, Meacham or Colston?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Colston is more of a possession receiver than a vertical threat, so I'd go with Meachem.
josh talk about being burned fans here still feel 3rd degree burns from 1998 falcons
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
In some ways, I think having the Vikes in the Super Bowl would be the best thing for the NFL (and not just because of Favre), so I would not be at all upset if they beat Dallas. I just think the loss of Winfield (assuming he didn't get back to full strength during the bye week) is going to hurt them a lot.
Colts or Ravens?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Colts. Their secondary is very good and Flacco and company won't be able to keep up once Peyton and company turn this game into a passfest.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
KC: I fully expect a Vikes loss Sunday as well (41 years of misery as a fan has made me a pessimist). That said, should my fellow fans be glad Favre joined the team this year? Many say that without a Super Bowl ring, the experiment was a bust. I say the team was exciting to watch for the first time in several years and that no other QB on the roster gets them a 12-4 record and a #2 seed. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
I know the season will be viewed as a failure if the Vikes don't get to the Super Bowl, but Favre did his part to get them into position to get there. Can't knock Chilly or the Vikes management for that one regardless of if the Vikes win this weekend.
KC,I know Al Davis is crazy...but am I? Why do I feel like John Gruden will be back in Oakland coaching up J.Russell?Gruden is the only coach that I remember being able to go Toe-Toe with Davis and winning. I can see Gruden getting a HC and Exec VP situation in Oakland again with a lot of $$ similar to Carroll.Plausible?, Possible?, Probable?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
I don't know if you are crazy but the idea that Gruden would ever go back to Oakland's qualifies for institutionalization.
Are McDaniels and Marshall buddies again? They definitely were not buddies at the end of the season.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
I don't know if they are buddies, but I would point out that one plausible reason why McDaniels was willing to send Cutler on his way is that he may have thought Cutler was high maintenance. Marshall is high maintenance and that makes me think McD sends him on his way no matter what.
Over/under on how many penalties Flozell gets facing Allen?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
I'll go with three on that one. Could be a question for Chad Millman to see if there is a prop bet in Vegas for that one.
Is JaMarcus Russell going to get another shot? I heard he is lazy and scarfs down hot dogs and frozen burritos instead of training. Is that true?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Very funny. All I will say about Russell is that in the last six games of the 2008 season, he had a passer rating that was better than Joe Flacco's or Matt Ryan's in that same time frame. He has shown the ability to be a quality NFL QB at times and that is the likely reason the Raiders aren't giving up on him.
alex (lake minnetonka)
KC, it sounds like winfield will play a lot of slot during the game. do you thin winfield could single cover witten, allowing a safety to go over the top of miles?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
It's possible but the safety over the top only helps on certain routes. I just don't think Griffin or Allen or Paymah will be able to stop Austin from catching a ton of medium depth routes where a safety can't help them.
If you see a lineman who has great metrics, but on film he doesn't quite look elite in terms of speed or strength, does you opinion change? Or do the metrics tell the whole story?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
In general, when the metric and scouting eyes don't agree on a player, I go with whatever the metrics say. I'll steer away from that rule on occasion but it has served me well by and large.
It's hilarious to hear Chargers fans blaming their oline for LT's decline. Have they seen the Chiefs ragtag unit. Charles averaged 2.6 yards more a carry. Not to mention LT benefits from an elite passing game.
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Mike, I rather feel for Chargers fans because they don't want to believe their hero is on a decline. I remember what it was like watching Walter Payton in his last year. He just wasn't anywhere near the back he had been in his prime and it was painful to watch.
The guy on the Vikings who concerns me the most is Harvin in the slot. I'm not sure Scandrick can handle him and we really can't give him help and expect to contain Peterson unless we jump out to a big lead.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
I'm with you on this one, Ted. Scandrick has been solid metrically (I have him with a 6.8 YPA) but there have been times he has been beaten badly. That's the one matchup that could keep the Vikings in contention in a shootout.
Joe Flacco (R U SERIOUS?)
Are you really comparing Jamarcus Russel to me, perhaps KC you need to be institutionalization
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
For that six game period, I sure am. For the 2009 season and the games before that six game period, not so much.
Kevin (Patriot Nation)
On an over/under prop it needs to be on a half so the money is even on both sides KC...
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
You can tell how often I bet on games (which is to say never). I'll take 2.5.
vinnie_mac210 (San Antonio)
Do you think Jordan Shipley will make for a good to great pro in the NFL?? I say yes.....
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
I haven't broken down his tapes but from what I saw through the year, I'd say he has a shot at being a solid pro. Wouldn't go so far as to say great, though.
its hilarious after having Kansas City had some of the most elite back in the last decade that they still dont understand football or how different types of RB's require different blocking scheme. Charles is lighting fast but lacks LT's power. LT has always been a combination of both famous for his "jump cut" and stiff arm. but as the line decreases his holes are smaller. Plus the chargers made a conservative effort to reduce his carries because they wanted a healthy LT...as the newest article Rb's usually run for 2,3,4, the 40 yards. so the average goes up after the long one. LT's 15 carries agame limits his chances of breaking the long one. But if you watch the bengals or Giants game he still ahs the speed.
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
Greg, LT has short area speed. He doesn't have the long ball burst anymore but, as today's Contrarian Thoughts article on him shows, he does have the ability to get the short burst yards when given good blocking.
KC: Do you think that Dallas is going to be able to function well in the loud Metrodome? Predict the score for the game.
KC Joyner (5:06 PM)
I'd go 31-24 Dallas. I'll also go with Indy, the Saints and SD as winners this weekend. Well, this hour flew by because of all of the good questions so I say thanks to everyone who sent queries in! One last note, you can follow my material on Twitter at kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all here next week!