Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Derrick (Garden City)
Hey KC, which Cardinal would be a better free agent fit for the Dolphins: Dansby or Rolle?
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Rolle by far. Dansby is a good run stuffer but the Fins are already good vs the run. Rolle is a quality coverage safety and Miami needs that kind of help big time.
KC, So with Bradford's stock is rising would you take him 1st over the stud DTs (Suh and McCoy)
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
He's not the #1 prospect in the draft (that honor still goes to Suh) but a case can be made that the Rams should go QB instead of DT. Unless they are satisfied with their QB situation, taking Bradford could make sense for them.
Would you think that the Giants trading up to get Eric Berry would be a bad move, considering their hideous secondary needs a lot of help.
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
It might be in the sense that Berry looks to me to be more of a hitter type of safety than a coverage expert.
Hi KC, who would be the best WR the Dolphins could acquire through free agency?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I did a Contrarian Thoughts article today for Insider that looked at some undervalued wideouts. One of those was Kevin Walter, and he could give Miami exactly what they need in terms of a vertical threat. You can find a post for it on the Insider page or on Twitter at kcjoynertfs.
Who are some restricted free agents not named Marshall you see teams going after? Who look like good deals with 1st, 2nd or 3rd round tenders?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
The issue with going after RFAs is less the draft picks and more the fact that the other team can match your contract offer. A lot of teams might give up a 1 and a 3 for Vincent Jackson but they aren't going to do it if it means trying to put a bid on the table that SD won't match (and they'd match just about any offer made). So many players are getting the 1 and 3 bid that I'm not sure a lot of movement will happen here.
What do you think of Marion Rolle? Is he worthy of a 1st round pick?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
I assume you mean Myron Rolle. I'll just put it this way - his leadership is every bit as strong as Tim Tebow's. His physical skills are also very good. Not sure he'll hit the first round but some team is going to be happy with their pick when they draft him.
With tampa haveing 10 picks overall and 5 in the first 99 selections, is it smarter to stick with the draft? or trade some picks to get proven WRs like Boldin or Marshall?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
The thing about Boldin and Marshall is that they are both somewhat overrated. Boldin is a possession receiver (his vertical numbers are usually not that great) and Marshall is a workhorse who gets big totals on volume rather than elite production. TB shouldn't trade the farm to get those two, so going FA or the draft would be the way to go.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Based on your answer to Brian from DE, are you expecting very littl activity in the FA market this off season?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
There just isn't much in the FA field to go after. The six year limit eliminated a ton of talented players and left the FA pool pretty limited. Teams will be better suited to go for draft picks and then for low level college prospects who go undrafted.
Two way different perspectives from Mel kiper jr. and todd mcshay on Jimmy Clausen, where do you see him standing?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
I saw a lot to like in the Draft Lab article I did on Clausen. I think he has a lot in common with guys like Brees and Pennington (weak arm but still good on vertical passes). I'd rate him as the top QB.
was it really that unwise for the jets to let go of Thomas Jones? I see him as a product of the o-line
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
My question on Jones would be how do they replace him? Jones was a between the tackles pounder type who would wear the defense down so Washington and Greene could come in and hit the big plays. I can't see Washington being that guy and am not sure Greene is the best fit for that role either.
Zach (Bronx, NY)
What do you respond to the argument that game tape analysis isn't helpful unless you know players assignments? Or the argument that it's really hard to see corners on television?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Those who say these types of things usually haven't watched both TV feeds and coaches tapes. NFL teams record games off TV because they know they can see things on those feeds that the coaches tape doesn't show. There are plusses and minuses to each approach, in other words.
Steve (New York)
what are the odds that the Pats pursue and acquire LT?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Can't see that happening. LT just doesn't give NE anything they don't already have on their roster.
KC..Giants need a MLB in the worst way. Is Brackett or Dansby even on their radar or will they spend wisely after last years spending spree?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I think Big Blue will spend some money if the price is right. It will depend on if there is any kind of a bidding war for those two (something I don't see happening, or at least not to an extent that would preclude them signing one of those guys).
Ryan (Germantown, MD)
Do you see the Giants making a play for Darren Sharper?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
It would be a great fit, but it would cost them some cash. A lot of teams could use Sharper.
Do you think that the addition of Peppers to the Bears is worth the large investment? Personally, I don't see Peppers getting the same production as he did in Carolina mainly because the DBs for the Bears are not nearly as good as Carolinas. He certainly won't have many coverage sacks thats for sure because opposing QBs get rid of the ball so quick because of the soft coverage. Thoughts and thanks.
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
I'd like the move in the sense that Peppers is one of those rare pass rushers who can get pressure all by himself (i.e. without much help from the scheme). Not sure they'll outbid the world to get him, but I'd be all for it if he ends up in the Windy City.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Do you think Chester Taylor stays put or will someone else lure him out of the nice situation he has in Minnesota?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
It depends on if he wants to be a #1 back. The Vikes are still capable of making a Super Bowl run and if he keeps in shape, he could be Peterson's backup for a few more years. That's job security and a enjoyable playing environment and there is a lot to be said for the value of those.
Are there any defensive backs out there that could help Detroit's terrible secondary? I'd love Rolle, but I doubt they'd even have a shot. Anyone else that may be under the radar a little like Jabari Greer was last year? Also, any thoughts on them possibly getting Vanden Bosh or Kampman?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
The good news on Detroit and the secondary is that any good player would be an upgrade for them. There aren't any strong FA CBs (no one anywhere near what Greer was coming into last season) but all the Lions need is to eliminate the big holes in their secondary and they could improve to at least being middle of the road.
KC, why is it that teams are hesitant to make trades, using Marshall as an example, but if Marshall was thrown into the draft, he would surely be a top 5 pick. Ive never understood this dynamic.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
It comes down to age. NFL teams know that once someone hits 27-28 years of age, their career value plummets. It isn't happenstance that the NFL career lasts and average of four years, which for most players is just around the time they are starting to hit this age.
do you see miami making any possible trades for joey porter?say sending him to anywhere he won't be happy in?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Ozzie checks in with some bad karma for Porter! It takes two to tango and I can't see much interest from the rest of the league in Porter.
Chris (santa barbara)
Can you see a team like SD trading picks with a team like the lions in the second round for Cro.? Would it be worth it to SD to grab Cody( after they just released williams) and a RB like Best with the second round pick?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Cromartie to the Lions would be a great move for both teams and it very well could happen. Cody to SD isn't a move I'm quite as sold on, if only because Cody has some limitations and SD would have to work their defense around those.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
KC: You mentioned that player value plummets once he hits 27-28. In your scientific studies, have you found that process speeds up when players spend any part of their careers in Detroit?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Very funny! And in a word, yes.
If you were gene smith who would you take if all 3 are available- Joe Haden, Derrick Morgan, CJ Spiller
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Haden. Got to go with a CB in that division.
Hi KC! When do you think the NFL will finally do away with these 3 rules: 1) Not allowing all 53 players on your roster to suit up, 2) Getting rid of the silly 3rd QB rule, and 3) Eliminating the petty running-into-the-kicker rule, and instead only calling the roughing penalties, which will allow teams to go after blocks more. I thank you as always for your opinion.
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Three questions in one post. Try hitting me with one of them at a time! Here goes. 1 - not going to happen, as the rule is in place to help gameday competitive balance. 2 - Unlikely for same reason. 3. It could happen given the positive response to other changes like it (i.e. the 5 to 15 facemask rule).
Mike Ditka (New Orleans, LA)
You think it would be a good idea for a team to trade all of their picks to get up to the top? Just curious.
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Ditka gets bashed for that, but if the Ricky Williams who played in Miami last year was the guy who showed up to play for NO, we'd all be talking about what a great move Iron Mike made.
Isnt Marshall 23 yrs old?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
I don't know off the top of my head, but even if he turns 24 this year, it means 2-3 years of top level play (assuming you call what he's done the past few years top level play).
Will my Cowboys make any moves in free agency, and if so, who might they be looking at? Antrell Rolle?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Rolle would make a lot of sense and Jerry Jones is the type who will outspend others even with the financial concerns that go with the possible 2011 lockout. I would not be at all surprised to see him pursue Rolle.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
According to Mike and Mike, Marshall is 25.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Thanks for the clarification!
KC, if you were the Eagles would the potential lockout in 2011 change the way you treat the McNabb-Kolb situation? Would you run the risk of Kolb not seeing the field for TWO more years?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Very good point by KingKev. Philly hasn't been going with the all out win the Super Bowl this year approach the past couple of seasons (letting Dawkins go being exhibit A for that) so getting Kolb under center sooner rather than later would make sense at some level. I still think #5 will be their QB this year but it is an interesting viewpoint you make.
What do you think the falcons plans are in free agency?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Being that I just read a quote from their GM that said words to the effect that there is very little to be found in the way of FA, I'd say they won't be a big player. There may try and get some vet CB depth but otherwise I don't see them doing much.
Richard (Greensboro, NC)
The Broncos absolutely need a NT for the 3-4, yet most believe they will take Dez Bryant in the 1st rounder after Marshall is dealt. Do you think they should reach for someone like Dan Williams at 11 or is there a suitable 3-4 NT they can get in the 2nd?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
I was very impressed with Williams in the Draft Lab I did on him, so I wouldn't consider him a reach at that spot. Having said that, there is so much depth at DT in this draft, and so little WR depth (at least comparatively) that taking Bryant before Williams would make sense if/when Marshall is out.
Hi KC! Would Miami consider a guy like Nate Burleson or Arnaz Battle? Or do they just fall into the same category as Camarillo, Bess and Hartline?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Mitch, the good news for Miami is that their only need is a vertical threat. Those three you named have proven capable of doing everything except hitting the long pass. The Fins need to go for someone like Walter or draft a speedster and hope they can integrate that part of his skills into their offense. Burleson and Battle aren't those guys, so I'm not sure they would be the way to go.
Larry (Pasco, WA)
The Chargers just tendered Sproles with a first and third. They also just released Jamal Williams. Do you see this as a sign that they are going with a NT in the first like T Cody and getting a big RB later?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
If that is the case (and I have no reason to doubt you), your assessment hits the nail on the head. I think SD figures they are good at RB (and will be better in 2010 with a healthy O line) but their D has to have a big body in the middle to work.
maan (titusville, fl)
do you think the bengals can make a play for kevin walter?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
If the price is right, absolutely. Chad Ochocinco's vertical numbers weren't as good last year as they have been in the past, and getting someone like Walter could take some coverage pressure off of #85.
I just don't get the theory of trading brandon marshall only to draft Dez Bryant. Trading a sure thing for a question mark at the same position makes zero sense. If you must trade Brandon, then it should be because you are looking to change the way you build your team ie..build your lines!
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Brett, the key to the Marshall trade can probably be found in the Darrent Williams murder trial. Marshall wants and needs to get out of Denver for multiple reasons.
KC, Do you think the Buffalo Bills who need a NT should look into signing FA Jamal Williams ASAP? Or is the gas tank empty with him?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Mikey, there is too much DT depth in this draft for Buffalo to go out of their way to sign another aging vet DT. They could get a young quality prospect and have someone to clog the middle for years, whereas Williams might only give them a season or two at best.
Your wrong about Berry, Kiffen asked him to fill the role of a hitting box type this season but prior to this season people thought he was all Ed Reed, pure centerfielder. Look at his freshman and sophomore tape not just his junior year, he can do anything a safety can be asked to do at a truly elite level
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Benjamin, I really only saw tape of him from the 2009 season, so that's what my assessment was based on.
John (Columbus, OH)
Whats your take on Kerry Rhodes?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
I did a Rumor Central post on him a couple of days ago. The nutshell is that, when he is utilized properly, he is a rare find - a box safety who can also cover with the best of them.
greg (ashburn va)
QUESTION they tendered jason campbell at a 1st rounder does that mean shanahan wants to trade him?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
If they only gave him a #1, that is a sign Washington could be thinking exactly that. It would be a surprise, as I'm all for Campbell as the Skins starter.
Who's gonna love me some me?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Someone should, but as noted in today's Contrarian Thoughts article, there are two other vet wideouts whose performance in 2009 was just as good, if not better, than yours.
Eric Berry had like 16 17 picks his first two years of college?. FREAK?. I actually write for NFLdraftbible.com and he is my second highest rated prospect behind Suh. Love your stuff by the way, very useful.
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Thanks for the info and the kudos.
Word is Dansby is going to Miami late tonight. If they sign him, do you think that means they will not be looking at LB (McClain) in the first round of the draft? Could they be hoping for Dez?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
I believe Parcells takes the Al Davis position when it comes to LBs - they are a dime a dozen unless they are among the elite. Going for Dansby would allow them to not spend a pick on a player who could be overrated (McClain took off way too many plays in 2009).
Shouldnt the Jaguars wait till next year to draft a QB to develop behind Garard instead of reaching or wasting one of only 5 picks on one this year? Next years crop of QB's should be one of the best with Locker, Keenum, Mallet, Ponder
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Travis, living in Florida you must know a ton about just how much the local populace is in love with Tebow. Getting him even as a backup QB would be something that would surely sell tickets. It's more of a PR thing than a talent thing, to put it another way.
Barry Sanders (in hiding)
Don't you think I would be an upgrade for my old team?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
If we are talking about Lions greats, I'd think Jack Christensen or Night Train Lane would be the better way to go. I know they are dead and all but if we are going to dream, let's dream of helping that D out.
Wouldn't theEagles be the best landing spot for Peppers with a great pass rusher on the other side (Trent Cole) to take the pressure off him?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
It makes sense physically but not so much financially. Philly doesn't like to spend big money on older players.
KC, Before you go to dinner! What are your thoughts on Colt McCoy? Do you think he has the arm and accuracy to play in the NFL?
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
Not quite time for dinner, but we are close! From what I saw of McCoy (and this is based on watching games rather than a full Draft Lab breakdown) I think he does possess both the arm and accuracy. Pair him up with a quality receiver like his big target at UT (whose name escapes me) and he could win some games.
What's for dinner?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Mrs. Scientist said it is a real man's dinner of steak and potatoes. There are multiple reasons I married that woman and cooking is one of the tops.
Rick (SpringTown Ca)
KC- Im sure you have covered this before but who do you think is the better CB Nnamdi or Revis? Why?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
This past year it was Revis by a mile. Nnamdi had his worst YPA showing of his career last year, although as usual it was based on an extremely low number of attempts. Revis posted a sub 4-yard YPA so he gets the nod.
Dan (Washington DC)
You say people don't like to spend money on old players like it's a bad thing.
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
We get our share of comedians here, as you can clearly see!
Matt (Spokane, WA)
Reggie Wayne-- as good as his stats or the beneficiary of playing with Peyton Manning?
KC Joyner (5:04 PM)
As good as his stats say. Wayne runs the tree as well as anyone and can beat any level of competition. He'd be a top WR regardless of who was throwing him the ball.
i get that alot of people love Tebow. But for the 100,000 gator fans that love him, you have 500,000 that dislike him and dont think he will succeed. Also, after 3 years of losing with him or Garard fans will stop coming. I dont believe in drafting players for PR. Heck why not draft Tim McGraw, hes popular
KC Joyner (5:06 PM)
Travis, even if he is a polarizing figure, that kind of attention draws fan interest. He'd be like the equivalent of John Cena - fans come out to cheer him and boo him. And I'm not 100% sold on the idea that Jacksonville drafts him. It makes for a great story but if the coaching staff isn't on board with the move, it won't work.
Richard (Greensboro, NC)
Obviously you see McClain as a bit overrated, being projected in the 10-15 range right now, but even if he is as good as advertised, is it worth it to take a MLB in that spot? Is he being advertised as that level of elite that should be coveted?
KC Joyner (5:08 PM)
The McClain who showed up in the Kentucky game would be worth taking as a top 5 pick. The McClain who showed up for much of the rest of the year might be a low #1 pick at best. MLBs aren't normally taken this high because the position isn't as highly valued as some other spots and McClain's inconsistency makes me wonder if he should be picked that high as well.I hate to do it but Mrs. Scientist says dinner is just about ready so I've got to run. Quick note - you can follow my material on Twitter at kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all next week!