Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oakland)
With Jason Campbell at the helm, will I have a breakout year?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Depends on how you define breakout. DHB is a vertical receiver, so it might be a case of him catching some deep passes but not quite putting up the numbers of a complete young wideout like, say, Hakeem Nicks.
Rickey Henderson (Hall of Fame)
KC Joyner you are great and Rickey love your work, but Rickey say that Wally is the greatest Joyner of all-time.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Very funny! I was a Wally fan growing up.
Craig (Arlington, VA)
With the first pick in your fantasy draft are you going Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson? I'm inclined to say Peterson, CJ has more upside, but A.P. seems safer. Am I overthinking this?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
It's hard to overthink the #1 pick but I'd go with CJ. His home run ability is a step above Peterson.
What kind of season are you projecting for your boy Lee Evans this year? Also, who do you think the Bills QB will be?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
If Evans was ever going to have a top of the line year, this might be it. He is finally paired with a coach who isn't afraid to throw the ball vertically. Not saying he'll have a big year, as the QB issue is still there, but his chances have increased significantly.
Good Afternoon KC. With so many colleges playing offense with 4 and 5 WR sets, do you think that LB play over the TE suffers in the pros due to lack of experience in college?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Interesting hypothesis. That could very well be true. It could also be that coverage skills are lower on the NFL priority list for tight ends than pass rush and run stuffing abilities.
Uncle Mike (NYC)
Can we expect another great year from Schuab & A. Johnson, or will Kubiak try to instill a better running game?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
I'd lean towards greatness. Kubiak is a coach who passes to get a lead and then runs to close a game out, so even if the run game works out, Schaub and Johnson will still get their aerials in.
KC, why are so many people in love with the Ravens offseason, yet the Bengals haven't gotten nearly as much attention? They've both added a couple of receivers via draft and free agency as well retaining most of the 2009 line up. Yet the Ravens are regularly in the top 3 in power rankings, and the Bengals are lucky to crack the top 10. Explain!
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
It's history. The Ravens have proven they can turn talent into wins. The Bengals did it for one season and I think people don't quite buy into that they will be able to do this long term. I'm on board with them being a top 10 team, however.
Mike G (Baltimore, MD)
Big fan KC. When evaluating a player like Ray Lewis, how much weight do you put on his off the field transgressions?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Very little. I'm a tape guy first and foremost and the only time I pay attention to off-field issues is if they find their way to affecting things on-field (like, say, with Owens and his QB battles over the years).
Will your Fantasy top 10 include more than 3 non RB's this year?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
I'm working on that now. The answer is probably not. QB is chock full of great candidates and the only elite WR worthy of top 10 status is Andre Johnson.
Julian (San Francisco)
Hey KC,How do you think the Colts offense will improve in 2010 with the return of Anthony Gonzalez and the growth of Collie and Garcon last season and going into this season? Any potential for some four wide formations?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
There is potential but Indy would do well to keep Clark lined up as a TE. His production there is much greater than his production when lining up as a WR. If they do that, then Gonzalez and Collie will have to split the slot WR time. It does give them quality depth and that makes an already great offense even better.
I keep hearing VJax is worth a second rounder?! That's crazy considering what Dallas gave up for Roy Williams. In your opinion, what's he worth and do you agree that the Chargers are going to severely regret trading him if indeed they do. He's a special wr.
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Jackson is one of the best wideouts in the game and is still in his prime. I'm not saying it will happen but in my estimation, he's worth a #1, especially if a team needed a dominant WR to take a big step closer to the Super Bowl.
Mike [via mobile]
Speaking of the Colts, yesterday Matt Williamson said by 2011 Garcon will be Indy's #1 receiver. You a believer?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Let me put it this way. By the end of 2011, Garcon will at the very least be the Colts primary vertical target. Whether he gets true #1 status depends on how Reggie Wayne ages, but I'm leaning towards
I figured you wouldn't give away to many of the fantasy goods. This year, I plan on winning the league and ending Portland Jeff's reign of terror.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Consider that a call out of Portland Jeff!
Now that Revis has told us that he is the best defensive player in sports, do you think he is going to have a hard time with the added pressure this year. I kind of remember Champ a couple years ago after his incredible year, he had injuries and lost a lot of concentration. Does this happen to Revis?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
I think Revis relishes the added pressure. He loves the limelight and that's a good thing to have when you are working in NY. I will mention that he has posted top 15 YPA metrics in each of the past two years, so it would be a surprise if his numbers dropped too far (if they drop at all).
What is one thing you learned from last year that you are now using when evaluating players/talent.
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
I've spent a lot of time working on run game breakdowns and have learned a lot of play variations in that area. Check out today's Insider article for more details on that front (Chris Johnson benefits a lot from Heimerdinger's playcalling).
Kim Deal (Bakersfield, California)
Kay see jay! Do you think the Raiders D can be a middle-of-the-pack kinda defense especially in regards to their run D? Seems like they added plenty of talent that can help right away via draft and free agency.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
The Raiders have a ton of talent all over their roster. Their issue on run D is quite simply that their defenders don't hold their gaps. That is less a talent issue and more a coaching issue, so it should be a correctable problem. If it happens, then teams will have to try throw against a very talented Oakland secondary and that will play into the Raiders strengths.
Jimmy N (MD)
Don't think I forgot how long it took you to get to my Sage Rosenfels question last week. You think it is a guarantee Favre comes back?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Favre is a glory hound and can't stand the idea of not being in the spotlight. I'd bet dimes to dollars he'll be back.
Ice Cube (Compton)
Will Ben Tate be the lead back for Houston w/ Slaton as 3rd down back? How do you see it playing out?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
As it stands now, I'd lean towards Tate being the #1. Slaton had his chances but his fumbles are just too much for Houston to handle full-time.
How do you see the Jets splitting the carries between Greene and slowshoes LT? 70-30%.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Not if NY paid attention to LT's performance last year. He was good in goal line and short yardage but struggled on most other plays even when he was given good blocking. Greene should get 85% of the carries.
Do you think Sam Bradford has the tools to become a decent/good fantasy football QB in time?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
He posted dominant metrics in the OU games I broke down, so his talent really isn't a question. Whether or not they can build a team around him is and that's still up in the air.
Jeremiah (Harm City)
Speaking of Ray Lewis, what does teh tape say about last year? To me it looked like he had one of his best seasons and is the best football player to ever put on cleats still, not was. His blitzing and pass coverage actually seem to be getting better and I have not seen any loss of range or hitting power. It does seem unrealistic but that is how it went down right?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
I'm still finishing up the run metrics from last year (the run game will be summer project that goes into August) but I can tell you that the tapes I've seen thus far would make me agree with your assessment. He beat blocks and hustled around like few other LBs last year.
Michael (Mt. Airy, NC)
In a keeper league and in our draft I will probably have a choice of J. Best, R Matthews, S. Greene, P. Thomas,or C. Wells with my 1st pick. Your thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
I'd go Greene. His O line is one of the best run blocking units around. Only caveat is if you are in a PPR league, as in that kind of league I'd probably go Matthews or Best.
Did you break down any Colt McCoy games?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I did and was surprised that McCoy didn't do better on vertical passes. He was very good on short passes but couldn't get the ball downfield effectively. That could be his WRs fault more than his, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Pudge Heffelfinger (Canton)
KC, have you ever run across a fantasy league that included individual olinemen.
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
I posted this so that I could say we had a post from Pudge Heffelfinger (the first professional football player) in the chat.
Rob (Ardsley, NY)
In a PPR keeper, do you keep Wayne or Roddy White?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Roddy. He is much younger and, as mentioned earlier, Wayne has a lot more talented wideouts trying to take passes away from him.
Follow up question on Kubiak and the Texans- Didn't they lose a few games because of his flawed philosophy on closing out games with the running attack? They need one to do that!
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Very true. I got the impression that he didn't trust the running game to close things out. If that happens and his RBs show him they can handle being closers (and keep a hold of the football), he will almost certainly stop throwing the ball when the Texans have a late game lead.
Joe (Wasco, CA)
KC, a few years back I asked if you had any coaches' metrics...did I miss it? Still considering it? I bet fans would love that kind of information..."It's not my team that sucks! It's those damn coaches!" Raiders fan here also. Would love to know what kind of coaches we have on defense considering the prior question.
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Still considering it. I've done a bit more in the playcalling realm (check out today's Insider article for an example of this) but by and large I still lean heavily on individual player analysis. It may be something I get into more in 2010, but it will all depend on finding a way to integrate that kind of material into the player review metrics.
Gorman (Baltimore, MD)
You havent answered my Brian Billick question! (just like the NFL hasnt answered his calls??) The man flat out coach. Agree?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
I don't know that it is a matter of NFL teams not contacting him. It could be that he is enjoying working on television. He has a future in that area if he wants one (and if he can find a way to add some personality to his intelligent delivery), so it may be a matter of his not wanting to get back into coaching.
What three (or less) do I keep in a ppr- Wayne, Schaub, AP, Colston?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
I'd rate these four this way - AP, Schaub, Colston, Wayne (Wayne being last due to age).
What kind of a season do you see out of Matt Cassell in KC? Will the addition of Weis help the offense?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Unless and until I see Cassel do a better job on vertical passes, I'm not sold on his being a good pro QB. He lacked downfield passing touch in NE and that didn't change in Kansas City last year. Weis is a great offensive coach but this is an area where coaching might not help much.
How do you feel about M.Floyd being the #1 WR in San Diego in light of Vincent Jackson having a 3 game suspension, and the possible trade talks? Is he worth a round 3 or 4 grab? Thanks
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
The article on Revis from a few weeks back contained a section on Jackson/Floyd. In a nutshell, it said Floyd's metrics indicate he could very well be a quality replacement for Jackson. Not sure how high I would go for him in a fantasy draft, but if he is there in round 4, you'll definitely want to get him (assuming the Jackson issue hasn't worked itself out).
It is year 2020, what type of football are we watching? Specifically the schemes teams are playing on both sides of the ball.
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Hard to say, but I'd lean towards more running. The pendulum has swung very heavily towards the passing game and that eventually will start to swing back in the other direction.
christopher shawwa (san francisco)
YOUR FF defending champ is reading your chat
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
To quote Ali - THE CHAMP IS HERE! We are all aiming to take that title from you, so enjoy it while you can.
KC, which rookie TE do you think is in a better position (offensive style, TE competition, etc) to post better fantasy stats over the next 2-3 years: Jermaine Gresham or Jimmy Graham?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
I'd lean more towards Gresham but I don't think either of those guys will be the next Antonio Gates.
What do your eyes and #s tell you about LeSean Mccoy? Ready to take the torch from Westy???
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
McCoy fared well on blocks where he received good blocking, so I don't doubt his ability to mimic Westbrook in that area. I'm still not sold on his pass catching ability, but it might just be a matter of Philly using him as a runner first and foremost and leaning on the rest of their incredibly talented receiving corps to take up for replacing #36.
Am I wrong to think that Matt Ryan will never be a top-teir FF Quarterback? I see him as always being around 3000 yds and 20 TDs, and a true game-manager. He clearly has great talent, but I just dont see huge numbers ever coming out of him. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Last year was a down year for Ryan more because of injuries than anything else. He does play for a coach who isn't going to lean on the passing game first and foremost. That may mean his upside has something of a ceiling but that ceiling should be more around 3,500 yards and 25 TDs.
Tom Landry (Dallas)
Who do y'all think is going to be the dominant RB for Dallas? Is this Felix's year or does Barber turn back the clock? 60/40 or 70/30?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
I don't think Dallas will have a dominant single RB. They'll still pound the ball with Barber and then let Jones try and hit for home runs once the defense is worn down.
Chris (Baltimore, MD)
Hey KC - I'm not a big fan of Miami's backfield. Both Ricky and Ronnie are old and injury prone. Is the Phins run blocking good enough to plug anyone in or will the running game suffer if either suffer a significant decline?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
All of the Fins linemen last year posted POA success rates of around or over 85%. That means any RB should be able to get yards. They need to replace one or both of those two eventually but as long as they are healthy in 2010, Miami's run game should be in good shape.
Gorman (Baltimore, MD)
KC, I'm a former JV punter. Have you done any analysis/metrics on punting? Besides the obvious like hang time/net/average?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Punting is one of those areas that would take coaching tape to really break down. TV coverage can be worked around for many aspects of the game but special teams isn't one of them.
Any thoughts on how Carolina's terrible D-Line will affect their running game?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
If the Panthers opponents want to get into a grind it out style of contest by pounding the ball at the Carolina D, I think John Fox would say thank you very much. The Panthers would more than willingly go toe to toe in that kind of contest.
Who are the top 3 best and worst GMs in your opinion?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
I'll stick with naming the three best. I'd go with Ozzie Newsome, AJ Smith and Mike Tannenbaum.
Zach (Bronx, NY)
Have you ever thought about writing a book on the Oakland Raiders? I think you'd bring a unique angle. "Beyond the Mystique: The FOotball PHilosophy of the Raiders"
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I'm a huge Al Davis fan and have leaned on his philosophies quite often over the years, so penning a book like that would be quite cool.
Polian is obv best
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
I concur he absolutely belongs on that list. That's why putting together a top three is hard - there are a lot of quality personnel evaluators in the NFL. Well, it's been a fun hour but I've got to hit the road. Before I go, I should mention that you can follow my material on Twitter at kcjoynertfs. In addition, I am working on completing the TFS 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, and have a target release date of July 15. You can pre-order it with an early bird discount at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week!