Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
KC, nice name! Keeping with the KC theme, im a Chiefs fan who also happens to be a fantasy homer and drafted both thomas jones and jamaal charles. how do you see their workload breaking down for the rest of the year?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
I guess I'm starting a trend! Re: the Chiefs RBs, you'd do well to include McCluster in there as well. Charles is a rare home run back but Haley doesn't seem to think he can handle a full workload. I think it will be Jones as the smasher, Charles with 10-15 touches and McCluster being a wild card of sorts.
I Got Ripped in 4 Weeks (Hulk Hands)
Will Carolina fix their running game anytime soon? Their complete inability to run the ball sure isn't helping their young QBs.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
This has to be one of the biggest letdowns of the season. It isn't an issue that is easily remedied, as teams are playing to stop the Panthers run game and won't stop doing so unless/until the QBs prove they can throw the ball. It might take a Clausen/Steve Smith great day to get this thing going.
BSB (Confused Philly)
KC, people need to accept that McNabb will be booed here on Sunday. Not because we hate him. But hea??s more like an old flame you liked but things just didna??t work out. Sure you like your new squeeze (Vick) but part of you is still wonder what should have been. It will be a half hearted, wistful booing. So please, no cracks about the barbarians in Philly. Wea??re just upset that we have to see the old flame so soon after the break up.
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
McNabb was booed when he was winning NFC Title games for Philly, so it shouldn't be a shock if he gets booed this week.
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Not knocking Philly fans for that either, as McNabb is on the other team. Booing him is a prerequisite.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
Todd Haley not giving Jammal Charles the ball more is moronic. He needs 15-20 touches a game, not 10-15. Not giving him the ball more is like saying, "We don't like an explosive offense. We don't want to score too quick because our defense may get tired out"
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Not saying I agree with Haley's decision, but at the moment the team is 3-0, so he has to be given some credit for that. Still, 15 carries a game would be 240 for the year, and that's a pretty good total.
Ryan (San Diego)
If the Chargers could stay in their lanes and tackle on kickoffs and punts they would be 3-0. I think people are overreacting to how bad they "think" the chargers are when in actuality they are top 5 in both offense and defensive yardage
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Don't they remember that SD often goes through times like this and they still make the playoffs? I'm not that worried about the Chargers, as they have ample talent to put together a playoff clinching run.
DJ Supersoak (1974-2010)
How do you see the Giants-Bears matchup shaking out? This might be the rare shootout between teams that are traditionally "run, play good D" squads....
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
I wrote about this matchup on the ESPNNewYork.com Giants blog. In a nutshell, Cutler has been making bad decisions at his usual rate and Perry Fewell has a D that can ballhawk. This could be a turnover filled game.
Eric (San Jose)
So was Jimmy Raye the biggest problem in SF?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
The biggest problem in SF is that they don't seem to have one person fully in charge of that team. If that doesn't change, this will be a long year in SF.
How do you like Hakeem Nicks' matchup Sunday Night?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Tillman is not playing very well so Nicks should have a very good game.
Are we allowed to make jokes about the Ochocinc O's? I'm mean really, if you put in the computer the odds of THAT misprint for a charity number for any athlete out there, you know Ocho's going to be in the top 5, right?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
All I can say about that is the news has instances of this kind of thing happening all of the time. It makes one wonder why printing companies don't double check the phone number before printing.
NFC TITLE GAMES plural? The man won one. He was favored in 3 of them. Best qb in Eagles history, I will applaud. but there are some hurt feelings there.
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
My bad - I meant to say taking them to NFC Title games.
I noticed in your article you referenced Mark "Sanchise" Sanchez as point to Mike Vick, but Sanchez was a rookie last year, Vick is aproven winner who took his team the NFC Championship virtually by himself. And now that Vick has his head in the playbook, he is going to be way better than he ever was, however, you are right to question it though.
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I think Vick's Atlanta teammates would be surprised to learn they had nothing to do with the Falcons success in that 2004 season. And, as the article points out, this idea that he is a "proven winner" is a fallacy. Take out that 11-4 mark and his W/L record is only slightly over .500.
I don't know - once the game starts gloves should be off but when he walks out into the Linc I suspect McNabb will get a standing O with a handful of boos. I'm pretty sure the majority of fans saw him as something special.
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
You are probably spot on in. He will get a good ovation to start the game, but once that ball is kicked off, he'll be just another Redskins QB the Eagles fans will want to boo out of the stadium.
Tyler (Miami, FL)
I thought Vick used to love his TEs. Why does he not like Celek?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Very good question. It might be that Crumpler was his best pass catcher in Atl but in Philly D Jax fits that bill.
I missed out on the chat last week about fantasy football team names. I nominate Daunte Culpepper's Small Hands!
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
More good fantasy football team names! Keep them coming!
David (Atlanta, Ga)
Do you see the Jets giving Shonn Greene more touches or is this LT's job until he gets hurt?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
LT looks almost like the LT of old. He's going to get the ball as often as possible.
Talk us MJD owners off the ledge... please?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I wish I could. He'll do better but there was a reason he was ranked below some of the other elites in the draft guide.
What do you think about the detroit lions in the next couple of years? are they a draft full of cbs away from respectable?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
The Lions are only a couple of plays this year from being respectable. Their defense is playing quite well in many ways, although their coverage is still very suspect. If they fix that part of their team, the Lions will be close to a .500 club.
See KC, We all acting like jilted lovers over # 5. It's silly.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
I will say this - it is a good sign to see people getting this connected to a player. The NFL needs more of this. What is surprising is these same people who are pining for him to come back are the same people who were getting on his case when he didn't win a Super Bowl.
Mr. Breakfast (OchocincO's)
Who gets back into Peyton Manning's good graces again first - Pierre Garcon or Anthony Gonzalez? Should fans stop waiting for Gonzalez to be something special at this point?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Mr. Breakfast - that's a good one! Garcon gets back into the graces first because Gonzalez's big issue is an injury. Plus that and the fact that Collie will stay in front of him as the slot receiver.
I know you're really high on Thomas in Denver. But with his injury and the Brandon Lloyd hot streak, would you play him this week in fantasy or go with Lance Moore?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Thomas' injury happened on a play that was nearly a TD pass. Moore has a history of being a very streaky player, so this could be the beginning of that and could be a good reason to start him. I just wouldn't give up on Thomas by any stretch.
Is it me, or does Greg Olsen look pretty darn involved in the Martz offense? If I recall correctly, you were the only one in the offseason who even hinted that Martz would actually use him.
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Not patting myself on the back for that one just yet, as Olsen had one game where he was barely used, but Monday's game did make it look like Martz is getting him involved in this offense. Martz will go after weak matchups as much as any OC in the game and Chicago faces a lot of teams that aren't good at stopping the TE.
Now that you have your own Fantasy Football chat, are you instructed to not answer those type of questions in this chat? If not, is Brandon Llyod a good start this week?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
I'm not instructed to per se but I do try to keep this chat directed at football talk as opposed to pure fantasy questions. Lloyd is facing Finnegan this week. Finnegan is playing fairly well, so don't expect a huge game out of Lloyd, but I could see another 8-10 point performance out of him.
The Marshall Tuck Rule Band. Trade J Charles for Welker or Finley?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
That's how to get a fantasy question in - pair it up with a cool team name! Welker for Charles would be a good deal.
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
KC, sorry im slammed at work.... SAAAAAAAAAAAAAGE! Back to the grind, i'll do this for real tom.
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
It isn't a chat without a Jimmy N Sage reference!
Ram Fan (St Loo)
Bradford passes the eyeball test and while I'm not annointing him, he has thrown some very "Peyton-esque" balls. What say your metrics?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
His metrics aren't dominant but he is the best rookie QB I have seen in seven years of tape breakdowns (and this season is year #8). He will be an elite QB in the near future if St. Louis can get enough talent around him.
Mike (Danbury, CT)
Hey KC, I loved your piece about Cutler's bad decision metric for ESPNNY, and I was wondering if there is a "good" decision metric? I.E. 3rd and 2, make the checkdown pass to the open RB instead of passing to a covered WR down the field? Or is there something else you use to gauge a QB's effectiveness to hit the open receiver?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
I usually try to keep the metrics on a positive spin, so I have considered something along the lines of a good decision metric. Might give that some additional thought for SF 2011 (which, at the moment, looks like a distinct possibility - I missed writing a book this past offseason).
Joe (San Francisco, CA)
What is the rationale for a "shutdown" corner staying on just one side of the field as Nmandi does and as Revis has done in the past?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
The reason a team wants to keep a CB on one side of the field is that they have to structure their entire defense to adjust for wherever he moves. That is why teams don't make that move unless it is necessary.
Revis is out Sunday and Fitzpatrick throws the ball (unlike Captain Checkdown), not to mention Lee Evans always kills the Jets. Buying into him Sunday?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
If they get him matched up against either Wilson or Coleman (who Rich Cimini is reporting may take Wilson's place), Evans gets a TD this week. Wilson has physical talent but can't spot the ball in the air and Coleman simply can't cover well.
is malcolm floyd an every week starter?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Floyd has posted two good games so far this year and the one subpar game he had was in terrible weather conditions. He might get slowed a bit by DRC this week but all in all he's an every week starter.
Is Roddy White officially a top 5 WR or am I a homer? He's shaken off the skillet hands... he catches everything now!
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
I was on the White bandwagon a few years back and there is just as much reason to be sold on him today. He is catching everything thrown his way. He should be getting more publicity than he is.
What do you think of jacoby this week with/without AJ80?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
I'm almost sold on Jacoby even with AJ80. They were going to him quite often last week and he has a history of superb metrics.
Is there any hope for the Giants offensive line? Usually, when a lineman starts racking up mindless personal fouls, its because of the frustration that they know they're at the end. Is McKenzie reaching Flozell levels?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
The issue for NY is that their offensive skill talent says they should be a pass first team but that doesn't fit their O line talent. The good news is pass blocking is something that can be helped tremendously with good playcalling, so I look for NY to find a way to solve this problem.
KC, on this chat page there is an excerpt of Mel Kiper Jr's chat yesterday. He answers a question about Terrelle Pryor and refers to him as a "Vince Young-type" QB. Kiss of death?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Depends on the team he ends up with. Jeff Fisher has found a way to set up an offense that accentuates what Young does well and hide what he does poorly. He is exceptional in that respect and if Pryor finds a team like that, he'll be in good shape. If he doesn't (and Fisher does have rare skills), he could end up being a draft day bust.
William Moore has only started at S for 2 weeks but have you looked at him? Seems to be playing well for the Falcons.
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
I really liked his coverage skills in one of the games but wasn't quite as sold on the other. Still a bit too early to tell.
KC... Carson Palmer. Is all the blame on him? Or could it be the OL or the WR's or just timing? Is there hope for correction before the Bengals reach the meat of their schedule?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
A lot of it is the schedule, as Cincy has one of the most difficult schedules around. Having said that, Palmer didn't have great metrics last year so to see him not do great this year isn't a complete surprise.
when should the cards start Max Hall? The offense cant move with anderson throwing incomplete passes everywhere
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
It might have to be sooner rather than later. Anderson is just continuing his really poor stat trend (he had some of the worst metrics around last year) and to think that will turn around after the way it has gone so far is probably a bit of a stretch.
Seemed like Mark Sanchez threw at Jason Allens side the who game. Was Vontae Davis covering his man that good?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Vontae Davis has had a terrific season - don't have the numbers right in front of me but he's been a shutdown guy. Allen had great metrics coming into that game as well but he had to be considered relatively unproven given his history. That's why NY tested him.
KC, what has to happen for the Ravens to win in Pitt? On the flip side, what does Pitt have to do well to win vs the Ravens. Don't take the easy route and say "control turnovers". We all know that.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
They need to take away the vertical pass. Pittsburgh's offense is still having some success on deep passes even with their QB woes. Baltimore needs to take that away so that the Steelers end up having to try to dink and dunk their way downfield. If they do that, Pittsburgh's offense will likely bog down and that will give Baltimore's offense a chance to win the game.
Brad (Anchorage AK)
Who has a better overall year. Mile Austin or Desean Jackson
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
I'm still the driver of the Miles Austin bandwagon. I touted him as the best WR in the NFL over the summer (to the chagrin of Andre Johnson fans) and nothing that has shown up on tape so far this year says that should change.
I'd like to apologize for defending Darius Butler two weeks ago. He might be the worst CB in the NFL at the moment. Thanks for understanding.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Well, he's on the bench now, so it might not be an issue for the rest of the season, but I do appreciate the mea culpa!
Ryan (Germantown, MD)
Do you agree that the key for the Giants Sunday Night is going to be special teams? You know Dodge is gonna kick at least one line drive to Hester.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
If Dodge wants to be employed past this game, he'd better not kick to Hester. Kick it 20 yards out of bounds rather than test #23.
Erik (McAllen, Tx)
Continuing with the Jason Allen question, how badly will Brady and Co. pick on him this week? Also, is Davis going to restart the whole Slouch Moss debate again?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
They will throw his way early and often but they aren't going to avoid Moss simply because he is covered by Davis. And, if memory serves correct, Davis didn't cover Moss that much last year. The Fins had Sean Smith on Moss all day, so that makes me wonder if they thought there was a reason they shouldn't put Davis on him.
Brandon Marshall (Sun Life)
How do you think im going to do this week facing the Patriots. Butler doesnt stand a chance!
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Butler was on the bench this week, as Kyle Arrington started in his place. Whoever ends up facing Marshall, the Fins are going to target the matchup as often as possible.
sure (lee) [via mobile]
How are maclins metrics been, do you see this continueing and don't call me shirley
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
They have been very good. The real reason I picked this question (besides the don't call me Shirley comment) is that Maclin's matchups the rest of the year look a lot more favorable than they did coming into the season. I have been updating the CB grades every week in the start-sit service (info about which can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com) and those updates now have him as facing a much easier stretch run of CBs.
Jason (Loma Linda)
In your write up regarding Cutler's bad decisions, you mention that you included bad decisions made on a play with a penalty. Is that really fair? Sometimes the penalized behavior (illegal hit, pass interference) made the throw look bad.
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Good point. I should mention that if the penalty caused the interception/near interception, the QB is not debited with a bad decision.
Can you comment on Mike Williams (SEA) and Moeaki? Thanks
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I am pretty sold on both. Williams has elite physical skills but has been a bit slowed by injuries. Moeaki isn't just seeing a good volume of short pass targets - he's being thrown to on some vertical passes as well.
Have you had a chance to breakdown any tape on Tony Moeaki? Is he the Chiefs' new T-Gon?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I wouldn't go so far as to call him the next Gonzalez because he's used more often as an inline TE (versus flexing out like Gonzalez used to do).
Do you see Darren Sproles being given a larger workload at some point and turning around what has been so far a pretty lackluster season?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
SD might have the same issue with Sproles that the Chiefs have with Charles - they don't think he can handle the workload. I'd not count on that changing on a consistent basis but he should see typically see more work than he did last week. Well, it's been a fun hour but I've got to run. Quick FYI, you can follow my work on Twitter at kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all here tomorrow for the fantasy football chat!