Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
You and me this week KC - I note that the ESPN fantasy preview gives me the check at every position. Have you got what it takes to face Rex Ryan's Big Fat Can?!
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Hey now, Rex has lost a lot of weight. Give the man some credit. Regarding fantasy matchups, I'll bring everything my team has!
The last two weeks have me pretty concerned about the Jets matchup against the Browns. How do you see this game playing out?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Browns are doing what they did last year, which is to say starting slow and then gaining steam. They aren't as good as the score last week says they are but they will give NY all they can handle.
whats wrong with miami is it b/c the dont call plays to go deep or is it just the QB?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Leaning towards the latter. It is the likely reason they are making the change. Odd as it may sound, Pennington historically had a lot better vertical YPA numbers than Henne has posted this year (he's hovering around the 10 yard mark).
Mickey G. (Atlanta by way of Arlington)
KC, I'm down in hotlanta for the RAAAAAAAAAAAVENS game, and can't find my beloved pepperoni rolls anywhere!! Any regional delicacy here I should try?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Any Atlanta-area fans have a suggestion for Mickey G.?
Justin (St Paul)
Is Steve Johnson for real and do you see him keeping this production up?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
All Johnson has done is post quality game after quality game. He's doing it against good and poor competition and he's doing in on both short and vertical passes. Unless/until he starts fading in at least one of those categories, he's got to be considered for real.
What do you make of Ben Watson's recent low production and is he an above average TE in this league?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
I did a study on college QBs for ESPN the Magazine last year. It had five games worth of metrics vs. tough competition for the big name QBs in the draft. McCoy's totals were easily the worst of the group and his 6.3 YPA wouldn't even be very good in the NFL. He's just not a good vertical passer and that's where a lot of Watson's production comes from.
KC-Since there is a game tonight can we talk a little fantasy? Todd Heap or Ben Watson at TE. I absolutely positively have to win this week.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Gonna make some exceptions since there is a game tonight. Go with Heap even though Moore has been playing well for the Falcons.
Sean O (Annapolis, MD)
K Sidge, much talk about the McNabb benching down here... In every other time he's been benched he has come out and played gangbusters. You think that happens Monday night?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Yep. Shanahan did all of this to light a fire under McNabb. Forget the conditioning and not knowing the two-minute offense - that was a benching pure and simple and it was done to send a message. Message will be received and McNabb's play will improve.
Phil K (DE)
I know fantasy is tomorrow, but there are thursday night games tonight scientist!!! Down the stretch who do you like better: Welker or L . McCoy?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Welker recently said he doesn't trust his formerly injured knee and his recent stats are showing it. McCoy would be the pick.
Mickey G. Find Ted's Montana Grill and thank me later
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
I'll pass this along with the caveat that I have no idea what Ted's Montana Grill is.
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
Bold prediciton of the week.... dont ask me why, I think Eli goes down this week and we see one SAAAAAGE Rosenfels get some meaningful snaps! You heard it here first!
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Jimmy! I hope you saw I mentioned you in the ESPNNewYork.com Giants-Seahawks in game chat on Sunday. When Sage got in the game, I figured you would be ecstatic! And don't jinx Eli - he's playing great right now.
Ryan (San Diego)
Are you buying or selling the Chargers passing up the Chiefs to win the West? Also Rivers for MVP over Manning! This needs to be the year finally
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Leaning towards buying, but a lot of that is dependent on if the Chiefs come back down to earth a bit (which the Raiders loss suggests, but does not prove, may be happening). With you on Rivers, as he would get my PFWA MVP vote were it due today.
KC, in light of your Giants-Jets breakdown series on the regional blog, what's your final score prediction should those 2 teams actually meet on the field?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Thanks for mentioning that series - it took a lot of work but was worth it for some of the surprising finds it passed along. Giants would win something like 21-17.
Sean O (Annapolis, MD)
Glad to see you're taking fantasy questions today. I'm torn up about my kicker situation. I'm starting Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Matt Bryant, but worry about having too many eggs in one basket. Should I dump Bryant for Scobee or Hanson?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Stick with Bryant. The Ravens D isn't what it used to be and Atlanta will post a solid amount of points tonight (and, by proxy, so will Bryant).
THE UNDERTAKER (DEATH VALLEY)
________ is most likely to end my Wrestle Mania undefeated streak.
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
If Taker makes it back from his injury, no one ends his streak. He stays unbeaten at WrestleMania - it's the best gimmick in all of pro wrestling.
KCJ, been out anywhere lately with Mrs. Scientist? You owe her a night on the town! Get out of the lab for a few hours!
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
It's probably going to have to wait until the college season is over. Things are so busy right now it takes seven days a week to keep up (and that's with about five hours of sleep a night). Can't complain because this is a terrific job but the midseason crunch is a bear.
Rick Flair (woooooooooooooooooooo!)
Glad to see your doing some wrestling stuff K Sidge! Who is your favorite wrestler of all time?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
It would be Mr. Flair, although it should be noted his name is spelled Ric, not Rick.
What's the latest news with Roddy, think he goes the whole ame or maybe a late scratch?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
The odds are strongly against his being a late scratch. That makes this lean towards he'll be on the field for the entire game - Atlanta wouldn't risk their All-Pro WR candidate if they thought playing him tonight would risk the rest of his season.
Dumb Question Blair White or Marshall? Also big game for boldin tonite?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Marshall - White is a good selection for a flex spot in deep leagues but let's not assign Jacob Tamme value to him just yet. Do expect a good game out of Boldin - have him listed as a must start this week.
Bye weeks are hurting me KCJ... Vince Young or Mark Sanchez this week TFS?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Young to Moss will put up some points but the Cleveland secondary has had plenty of issues this yera. Facing the Jets talented WRs won't do them any favors, so go with Sanchez.
THomas Brady (N.E)
From a fantasy perspective, Brady's stock has fallen..would u look to trade him for something better like Eli Manning??
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Getting all formal and such with the heading Thomas? Brady is a great QB but fantasy-wise, Eli is the better play the rest of the year. Make the trade.
Is it just me or did Mendenhall show some quickness I'd never seen before. He looked like he could broken off a couple of long ones Sunday if the O-line was healthier.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
He's got some wheels to go along with the toughness. That O line is holding him back but he's still posting some quality totals.
What are your thoughts on Jeremy Maclin? Do his numbers shoot up now that Vick is back and DeSean is getting covered?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
They should move up this week. He's due to face Carlos Rogers and Rogers is having a very poor season (been hovering around the double-digit YPA mark much of the year). Maclin tends to do poorly against top competition and dominate every other level of matchup, so look for a really good game from him this week.
Record-wise the Falcons are up there, but I think they are too soft to win a big game. I think the Ravens are going to crush them. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Hate to disagree with a chatter, but have to on this one. The Falcons are very good in many areas and their D has played terrific this year (check out the TFS ESPN.com Insider article from a couple of weeks back). They will very likely win tonight's game.
Tanner (Cortland, NY)
I have a question regarding WR metrics--say a WR is wide open on his intended route but the QB's pass is over/under thrown and incomplete. Shouldn't the WR get the yards added to his metric because he did his job well in this instance?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
That falls under the missed yards metric. Just wrote about that for the Insider article on the Arizona Wildcats D. It is one way to account for situations such as the one you described.
Speaking of WR metrics, do you add in yards earned on defensive pass interference penalties?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Absolutely. Also add in yards and attempts for defensive holding and illegal contact fouls.
Randy (Cleveland, OH)
Is your basketball equivalent John Hollinger? What do you think of his work?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
My work falls more under the auspice of a combination of metrics and scouting reviews. Regarding my opinion of Hollinger's work, it couldn't be any higher. He's the best he is at what he does.
Hey KC - In a PPR league would you play Welker or Woodhead at flex??
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Would play Woodhead over Welker in PPR and standard leagues. Woodhead counts as a WR but he is getting around 8-10 rushing attempts every week. It's like getting 15 targets for a possession WR, so as long as he is still listed as a RB/WR hybrid, he is a solid flex pick every week.
Tanner (Cortland, NY)
What do you think of Footbal Outsiders metric work? Are they using similar/different stats than you?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
They do a terrific job. There is some natural overlap in the stat review area but that isn't a bad thing at all. It is great to have multiple voices in this industry.
Should I trade Brandon Marhsall for Jeremy maclin?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Only if you are in a non-PPR league.
Patrick (Birmingham, AL)
KC, I tend to agree with John from Earth about the Falcons, to an extent. Without two extremely fortunate home wins against the 49ers and Bucs, they are 4-4 and not considered unstoppable at home. I understand that good teams get lucky and all that but I mean the odds are stacked against them in those two situations. So I tend to think they're a bit overrated, no?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Not sure I'd call the win over the Bucs fortunate. They also have a great rushing attack, a terrific passing game, very good coverage metrics (Grimes has been fantastic most of this year) and quality QB play. There is a lot to like about this team.
The QB of the Philadelphia Eagles in 2011 will be_______________. (I know you are a scientist and not clairvoyant, so I am hoping you have a scouting eye opinion)
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Mike Vick. 2012 might be Kolb, but for 2011, the prediction would be Vick.
Can a team contend without a true #1 WR?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Philadelphia did it for years in the early Reid-McNabb days, so, yes, it can be done.
KC.. What's your impression of LaGarette Blount?? From a fantasy perspective is he a keeper or trade bait?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Keeper. His first game was tremendous and showed the kind of upside he has.
Uh... THE VARSITY... very close to the Dome. Chili dogs and fries are soooo good.
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Why didn't I think of that?! That places gets coverage every time ESPN goes to Atlanta. I'll have to take Mrs. Scientist and the kids there next time we make a road trip that way.
Good Day KC, Does Miles Austin return to elite status with the new coach or is he more a mid WR2? Thank You
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Good Day, Kmac! Kitna and Austin do not seem to be clicking but that should change with time. Stick with him as a #1, as he does have that level of talent and it will start showing up sooner rather than later.
Chioke Hassan (Baltimore,Md)
Dear KCWould you have had Randy Moss on the Steelers?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Steelers already have a dominant vertical threat in Wallace. No need to add Moss and his potential locker room issues to a team that doesn't need his downfield presence.
Fantasy ? about tonights game, hope it's ok. With Roddy hobbled would it be crazy to consider plugging in Dez Bryant (who should get some garbage metrics) over him?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
It wouldn't be entirely crazy given that Bryant has Aaron Ross on his docket this week. Ross has been a coverage liability all year long and is probably not capable of stopping Bryant. It's a risk in that you'd be starting a #3 over a
John (Los Angeles)
Mr. Joyner, I can't cook a hamburger to save my life and I was PROMISED tips from your wife posted at TheFootballScientist.com. I have checked it every day and no luck. I burnt my burgers again last night. I am sick of wasting cows. Please help.
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Every time Mrs. Scientist and I talk about sitting down to write that up, something comes up to prevent it. I promise we will try to do so after tomorrow's chat (schedule is too packed to allow it tonight).
KC.. come on throw me a bone. Fantasy trade deadline is Tuesday eve. Malcolm floyd was a WR1 before the injury. Does Vjax emergence hurt him?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
VJax does not hurt Floyd. Floyd had elite numbers last year when they were both in the lineup - no reason to think that won't happen this year.
ARE THE COLTS DONE FOR THIS YEAR
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Joe, Peyton Manning could probably win ballgames if he was quarterbacking Indiana instead of Indianapolis. Definitely should not count them out of it.
Hey KC, do you think Laurent Robinson gets more receptions now that he is completely healthy? He was a major preseason sleeper pick and Bradford seems to be on a role now.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Robinson had a great start to the 2009 season as well. He should see a lot more targets down the road. Related note - check out today's TFS ESPN.com Insider article on the Rams - they are for real.
Why is Reggie Wayne not getting the looks he has in the past?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't he lead the league in receptions? He's still getting plenty of targets.
Try the Vortex in Little Five Points. Best burgers in town and a 4 page beer list. Go Falcons!
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Another culinary suggestion for our Atlanta-based chatters!
Is it possible to expect Nicks to end up with 100+ catches, 1400 yards & 15 TDs?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
In a word, yes. Not saying his numbers will be quite that high, as he does drop too many passes and has a bit of an injury history, but it wouldn't be a shock were he to stay healthy.
John (Los Angeles)
Re: hamburger tips. Thank you! Totally understand if you don't have time, I just wanted to make sure you hadn't forgotten. I think will soon also be reminding you that I told you in the offseason that Cameron Wake would make the pro bowl this year. Perhaps I'll celebrate his selection with a nice well-cooked burger.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
A well-cooked burger for a top-level pass rusher sounds like a good way to go!
GA Tech alum from ATL, the Varsity is a little overrated...So you like Dez and Blount....of those two, who is your FLEX this week?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
One vote against the Varsity - wonder what Todd Blackledge would say about that? Regarding flex pick, would have to take Blount vs. Carolina.
Mr. Joyner, if you are starting an NFL team today and had to choose between Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, who are you taking? Why?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Really tough call, as they are both on the verge of being elite QBs. Ryan has had a couple of issues with feeling the pass rush and Flacco hasn't (or at least it hasn't shown up yet on tape), so I'd probably have to go with Flacco on that one.
MIKE NOONAN (LYNN MASS)
DO THE REFS GET FINED FOR BAD CALLS
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Hey guys, no need to yell the questions. We hear you just fine. And officials don't get fined for bad calls - they eventually lose their jobs for them. The NFL will not sit idly by and let poor officiating happen. They will do everything they can to get it right.
THANKS for the answer...not necessarily against the Varsity (or the V, as we called it), but it just not as great as all the TV shows say.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Thanks for the clarification - the V has a great reputation and it was odd to hear someone say anything negative about it.
Ditto to Drew. The Vortex has one of the best burgers I have ever had in my entire life, no exaggeration.
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
One more vote for The Vortex - another place to take Mrs. Scientist and the kids to on our future Atlanta road trip! Well, it's been a fast and fun hour but dinner is being put on the table, so I've got to run. Quick note - you can follow my material on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all in tomorrow's fantasy football chat at 4 PM ET!