Chat with AJ Mass
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AJ Mass (11:00 AM)
Good morning gang... we've got another hour of fantasy chattage on tap - second cup of coffee in hand. Who's up first?
Drop Peavy? Time to get real?
AJ Mass (11:01 AM)
I don't think you have to drop him just yet, but in my mind, it was always drafting him with May in mind.
Ian (Bellingham, WA)
How serious is Brian Wilson's oblique strain? Will Romo get a significant number of saves?
AJ Mass (11:02 AM)
No way we'll know for sure until the Giants have to make a DL-move, but I think it's reasonable to assume Wilson misses a few weeks, and that Romo gets the save chances while the Beard sits.
what positions would you target early in both AL and NL only drafts?
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
Shortstop is weak in both, but I'm still taking best player available in first five rounds regardless.
Evan (Computer Science Class)
In a league where rosters lock at the start of the week, is it better to fill your bench with pitching or hitting?
AJ Mass (11:05 AM)
Interesting question -- my first thought would be to have hitters, especially ones with positional flexibility. Injuries happen all the time, but if they happen to a SP, you probably weren't going to get any more stats out of him in the first place.
How long until we see Mike Moustakas handling the hot-corner in KC?
AJ Mass (11:07 AM)
I don't see any reason to anticipate him before June.
How highly would you value Trumbo?
AJ Mass (11:08 AM)
Not too much... lots of other 1B options and he's been battling injuries himself.
JJ Hardy or Eric Aybar?
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
Arsenic poisoning or hemlock? I guess Hardy, but I'm not composing any songs in his honor.
Really goofed up and drafted no closers (maybe Ogando). Should I punt saves?
AJ Mass (11:10 AM)
I think you already have.
Jose Reyes...15 HRs, 40 SBs in a contract year or more injuries?
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
Let's give him a clean bill and hope for 15-40. Would not be surprised if he's traded come July.
WIth AROD healthy over the winter and with his spring results, in an AL only League, is he back to a round one pick after Longoria?
AJ Mass (11:13 AM)
I wouldn't quite put him back that high in mixed. I had him at 49 (mixed) in my pre-Spring overalls. A healthy spring might bring him up to the mid-30's, but not that much higher. However, in AL-only, you may well want to snatch him up.
Don (Wexford, PA)
Who is this year's CARGO?
AJ Mass (11:14 AM)
I get this question nearly every chat. There won't be a Cargo this year, because that was a once-in-a-lifetime type season. McCutchen would be the only guy I think approaches anything even close to that, as a "never did it before" rise to the top 5 possibility.
Kevin Youkalis (Boston)
Why don't I get more love?
AJ Mass (11:17 AM)
Playing time issues... you've never seen 150 games, and that's a tough sell with all the production available at the corners.
Mustard (Kingston, ON)
Our 12 team roto draft was this weekend. I ended up taking Cano with my first pick at #6. Come round 8, Utley was still available and couldnt believe he fell that far. Are you seeing him fall this far in other drafts? Any new news on his condition? Thanks!
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
Nothing new, but signing Castillo certainly doesn't scream confidence in his being ready by Opening Day. Yeah, Chase is falling...
Casey (2 days from anywhere)
Which projection is more likely to be further off for Stanton, 36 HR's or 171K's?
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
I'd say the K's are much more likely to be in the ballpark.
Bautista will hit ___ HR's
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
Some. No? OK -- 34.
chris (so cal)
your alex rios article made no sense. if he just maintains last years numbers he has great value, how many people went 20/30 last year?
AJ Mass (11:22 AM)
Nobody disputes that. The question is whether he can take it to the next level. He still hasn't matched his 2007 numbers, when everyone was talking the next 30-30 guy. Of course, I'll take last year's numbers -- but people are expecting way too much.
Is your NCAA bracket as bad off as the rest of us?
AJ Mass (11:23 AM)
Now that Notre Dame lost, yes. If I could get points for "I told you that team would lose second round even though I had their opponent wrong" I'd be fine. Sigh.
G'Morn'n AJ, How close are Konerko and Howard?
AJ Mass (11:24 AM)
Quite close. I like Konerko a bit more, but wouldn't be upset if Ryan ended up on my team instead.
Marc Foster (hoboken)
Everyone talks about Konerko, but do you expect any improvement from Dunn given the new ballpark?
AJ Mass (11:26 AM)
Dunn should be fine... going back to my Rios article, I think a lot depends on how Ozzie ends up stacking the three guys, and with Adam at 3 and Alex at 5, Dunn will be better off than Rios.
Jason (Long Island, NY)
Who is closing for the Braves?
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
I expect it shall be a tag-team but Venters will be ahead of the time-share out of the gate.
Justin Upton or Mauer in the 1st round of a keeper?
AJ Mass (11:29 AM)
I assume you mean after all the keepers are kept and not a start from scratch keeper... and if so, a lot depends on who was kept in the first place. Mauer is certainly a guy I'd look long and hard at, given the dropoff in numbers at his position.
Kelly Johnson, Gordon Beckham or Neil Walker?
AJ Mass (11:29 AM)
I'm feeling Walker this season.
James W (Chicago)
In a bulpen time share do you avoid it completely or take both guys and see who comes out as the man?
AJ Mass (11:31 AM)
If it's two guys and you can afford the roster space, then yes, it's a fine strategy. If it's a place like TB and there could be any of three or four? No thanks.
Michael (Cary, NC)
I'm having a hard time reading the Dodgers bullpen. Can you discuss? Thanks
AJ Mass (11:32 AM)
Broxton will close. Kuo, Hawk and Jansen will set up.
Heath Bell (Padres Camp)
Am I going to be closing for the Padres all season, or is this the year I get traded?
AJ Mass (11:33 AM)
To be honest, I thought Bell was a goner last season, but the Padres were too entrenched int he playoff race... if they're more than 6 back at the deadline, I think Bell's out of there.
I'm in a starting from scratch keeper drafting tonight. I've never done a keeper league before. How early is too early to start grabbing young studs like Heyward, Stanton, and even Upton? How do you balance the future vs winning today?
AJ Mass (11:34 AM)
I would always draft for today. In the last few rounds, if you have a choice between role-player in 2011 and a possible future stud like Jennings, Hosmer, etc... go with the youngster. But you make the best team for 2011.
To piggyback on the Heath Bell question...if he is traded, who gets first shot as closer, Gregerson or Adams?
AJ Mass (11:36 AM)
Adams this season, but longterm I think it will end up Gregerson.
Which player has the greatest all-around fantasy impact this year...Brandon Belt, Brett Wallace, Seth Smith?
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
Seth Smith. Terribly underrated and could get 20 HR.
Rauch worth an add with the prospectus of never losing the job or let someone else enjoy the first month?
AJ Mass (11:39 AM)
Worth an add, especially since - if he hits the saves jackpot early - you can trade him to an owner who isn't paying attention if word trickles back that Francisco is taking over.
most important pitching stat to focus on when drafting in a 10 team 5x5 league
AJ Mass (11:40 AM)
K/BB. Pitchers who are dominating hitters and not giving any free passes are most likely to have success.
What do you expect from Ian Desmond? Can he be a starter in a deep league?
AJ Mass (11:42 AM)
I do have doubts about Desmond. I feel in a lot of ways, he's being drafted where he is because he's got a job and not because of his skills. The 15-15 he'll give you is a decent consolation prize, though.
Troy McLure (Springfield)
Ike Davis rosterable in a 10 team league? I don't have crazy rookie expectations, but will he be good enough out of the gate?
AJ Mass (11:43 AM)
I wasn't sold on Davis at first, then I looked closer at the numbers -- see my 30Q on Mets -- and now I think a breakout season is very likely.
Can Chone Figgans bounce back and give respectable numbers?
AJ Mass (11:45 AM)
40 steals is what you see and what you get. Yeah, he probably hits closer to .270 than .240, but we are still talking one and a half categories... with runs being up to the rest of his lineup.
Why don't you ever answer MYYYY questions?
AJ Mass (11:46 AM)
OK, Pat... but just this once... because... oh wait... hang on a second, someone just came in...
Brian (Boston, MA)
Need a SS and have the likes of Drew, Desmond, and Castro left for options. Do I go with Drew here?
AJ Mass (11:48 AM)
Yes. I'm not buying Castro just yet and I've already given my doubts on Desmond. Drew has a little more offensive upside if all falls right.
You always say..."take the best player available in the first five rounds". What if in a 3 OF, 1 DH league, you are faced with drafting Braun or Crawford (1st), Hamilton/Kemp (2nd), Cruz/Choo (3rd), J.Upton/McCutchen (4th). Would you deviate from your plan or fill up the OF portion of your roster?
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
To me, if I get a 20-20 guy at shortstop or a 20-20 guy at OF, it doesn't matter. It's still 20-20. Yes in the middle rounds of the draft, you look at SS and see a lot of 10-10 guys and there's a huge dropoff, but by the end of the draft my overall stat totals won't be nearly as off as people fear.
Saves- In a 20 team league is it a viable strategy to not pay, but take a projected closer (Nathan) and three dominant setup men with real shots at closing? Or would I be better punting at that point? (H2H)
AJ Mass (11:53 AM)
There are 30 teams in the bigs. You're probably going to get 2 or 3 teams in your league who will grab 2-3 closers and try to win the category. Grabbing one and maybe finishing 4th in the category versus punting and finishing last? I'll take a shot at 15 standings points.
Do you think Delmon Young could be a fast riser this year? Cargo's pop minus the steals...25yrs old
AJ Mass (11:56 AM)
My gut says last year was a career year for him, or at least a baseline he won't jump over.
Andy (St. Louis)
What are the odds of Dustin Ackley making the team at the start of the year? Thanks
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
I'm leaning towards Triple-A at this point, though he's doing his best to make the decision difficult.
Odds of Posada getting more than 400 ab?
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
Pretty low IMO. Especially since the NYY are going to (as usual) hit the free agent market in a big way late and load up on DH candidates.
Walter (Fringe Division)
Will my universe survive allowing me to be on TV next season?
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
I hope so... best show on TV right now.
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
That's my time, gang... I appreciate the Q's... I'm on Twitter and usually try to respond to questions there a few times a day... until next time, Good Luck and may the odds be EVER in your favor.