Chat with AJ Mass
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AJ Mass (10:59 AM)
It's Friday, Friday... and so forth... time for another hour of fantasy chattage. Buck up all of you suffering from post-Pia parting depression. Second cup of coffee in hand. Who pray tell is up first?
John (Colorful Colorado)
Mornin' AJ. Thanks for taking my question. In a standard H2H daily league, would you rather have Tabata or Abreu in your Util spot?
AJ Mass (11:00 AM)
Abreu for me. Not only do I think he's been more valuable so far, but expect him more likely to continue in that regard.
I am in last place in a 12 team dynasty keeper league so I need to start rebuilding. But really, how do you decide when it is time to starting looking toward next year?
AJ Mass (11:02 AM)
Always wait a month before dismantling this year's team. Then see what categories you can fix immediately. Wait until the All-Star Break to completely blow it up.
Love you work, AJ. Could you shed some light on how you got into the field of fantasy analysis?
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
Short version: Always been a sports fan and went to Syracuse. Degree in journalism, minor in mathematics. The two go hand in hand in analyzing fantasy sports. Starting writing about fantasy sports for TMR and eventually, ended up here.
Boston going with another different lineup today. You think CC leading off and A Gonz batting third could spark this nonexistent offense?
AJ Mass (11:05 AM)
Couldn't do worse, right? Clearly the problem is more mental than physical, as the talent is there. But dumb mistakes, like Varitek not tagging runner coming home? That's more the reason for losses.
appendix (trash can)
Hey A.J., I dropped the erudite (Princeton?) yet poor performing Will Venable for Ben Francisco last night. Good Call? Bad Call?
AJ Mass (11:06 AM)
Absolutely. Ben's not losing this job, even when Brown is ready to play. Probably the only Phillies hitter I would want on my team besides Howard right now.
AJ, you like Vlad this year in Baltimore?
AJ Mass (11:08 AM)
His best days are well behind him. Yeah, he can fill in at UT spot in deeper leagues, but I'm not doing cartwheels here.
AJ, I still like you.
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
Thanks, Impaler. Nothing personal.
Carlos Quentin! I don't have anything else to say about him, I just think he's great.
AJ Mass (11:10 AM)
No. 1 hitter so far... doubt he keeps it at that level, but hard to argue with the start.
Scherzer didn't look good in the Spring or in his last start. Are you starting him today against KC?
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
A qualified maybe. I tend not to bench pitchers based on matchups, but if you looked at Daily Notes you'll see him at 13 for the day.
Former Federal Agent? (Redemption Island)
You must remember the Bushido Code, and the way of the Samurai. Do you apply any of the teachings of Sun Tzu to your Fantasy Philosphy?
AJ Mass (11:12 AM)
Everyone be quiet... Philip is coming. Hide your idols. Sssshhhh!
Do you think Arencibia is being overrated? 45%, a little high for a part time catcher no? I dropped him for Edwin Jackson, I also have Hundley. Good move?
AJ Mass (11:14 AM)
Not really... I mean, with catcher, save for Mauer, batting average isn't really an issue, so all that matters are the HR and RBIs. Now in an H2H, sure, the lack of everyday time matters, but for roto? I like JP.
Victorino or Manny for the year?
AJ Mass (11:16 AM)
Shane for certain. Manny is already "being Manny" and while I like a lot of OF more than Victorino, Ramirez is not near his talent these days.
Aside from Moneyball, can you suggest a good SABR baseball analytics 101 book or resource?
AJ Mass (11:17 AM)
"The Book" co-authored by Tom Tango. And allow me to also plug "How Fantasy Sports Explains the World" by yours truly, coming in August.
with Nishioka injured is Espinosa a good fill-in, and is Nishioka worth a DL spot for this year, and keeper?
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
Don't love Danny, but there may not be a lot on the wire. I wouldn't waste the DL spot on Nishi. At best, he was .270 and a few steals.
Please put in order of who you like best.Dickey, Porcello,Beachy or Britton.
AJ Mass (11:19 AM)
Dickey, Britton, Beachy and The Ricker.
To keep with the topic, you must type this answer as fast as you can. Which speedster are you liking more for a points league, Jose Tabata or Rajai Davis?
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
I'd rather have Davis as the season progresses.
Should i sit on Jason Bay still or drop him and pick up someone like Willie Bloomquist or Alex Gordan?
AJ Mass (11:21 AM)
Bloomquist is Bonifacio reborn. He may get you steals, but this is a mirage. Gordon on the other hand, should be valuable all season, and certainly I'd rather start getting his bat in my lineup sooner than later over Bay's goose eggs.
Are you selling high on the hot start for Kinsler? Would you trade him straight up for Choo?
AJ Mass (11:23 AM)
I'll actually have an article dealing with that kind of decision on Monday... but because of the position not being equal, I'd keep Ian for now. If we were talking CQ for Choo, I might make the deal if I were a gambling man.
Are you worried at all about Ben Zobrist? Great first game and nothing since...
AJ Mass (11:25 AM)
The whole team (other than BJ) has been down. I wouldn't hold it against Ben Z. Patience.
Concussion not withstanding, Is Yunel for real?
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
No, I don't think so. I expect a huge letdown once he gets back in the lineup too, with the layoff and all.
Ian Stewart or Chase Headley to fill in for Longoria?
AJ Mass (11:28 AM)
Chase for me, sir. He's seeing the ball very well.
Brad Lidge (Phi)
Am I worth holding on to in a league with only ONE DL spot?
AJ Mass (11:29 AM)
Not if you need the spot for someone else. By the time he comes back, you may not even be able to gain ground in the category with his saves.
Daily Notes... You feel safe with Britton against Texas? Why is DeLaRosa so low?
AJ Mass (11:31 AM)
Here's the thing with DN. The rating is generated based on the matchup and is purely statistical in nature. There's no opinion there. The ranking adjusts that ranking up or down based on the pitcher's three-year track record with an emphasis on recent history. At this point of the year, especially with rookies, it's real hard to judge, so we lean a bit more on the rating.
How much more valuable do you consider J. Upton to be over Granderson? I'm asking because I have a surplus of RP and can deal Grandy/Contreras for Upton. Would you pull the trigger?
AJ Mass (11:33 AM)
Before the season I said I like BJ more than Justin and I stand by it. Granderson I still see as a 25-30 HR guy, so I don't make that deal.
Speaking of trades... what's the etiquette about lapsed trades? Assuming they're open for a few days, it should be enough time to respond. Is it bad form by the recipient? Should it be taken as a pocket rejection?
AJ Mass (11:35 AM)
If someone offers you a trade and you don't like it, you should definitely respond right away. Common courtesy. And yes, if they don't accept or counter, it can be assumed as a NO.
With Francisco coming back soon & Dotel already back are the save chances for Rauch going away?
AJ Mass (11:37 AM)
I think Rauch keeps the job until he loses it. Why change a good thing? And it's not like having guys like Octavio and Frank in 7th and 8th is bad for a team.
Starting Hughes today?
AJ Mass (11:37 AM)
Other than CC, I'm steering clear of Fenway this series.
Phil (Phoenixville, PA)
Choo for Quentin? Wait a second here...aren't you the leading voice re: "wait a month and then see what you have?" I have Choo in a keeper and I wouldn't trade him for Quentin now or in August. I had Quentin last year and he was terrible. You are confusing me.
AJ Mass (11:39 AM)
This was endorsing the trade of hot CQ for cold Choo. Yes, for my own team I would not initiate deals. However, if I have an offer sent to me and I'm getting a guy I fully expected to have better final stats AND he's woefully behind right now? That's kind of a no-brainer.
Drop Ordonez or Sizemore for Logan Morrison?
AJ Mass (11:41 AM)
Without looking back.
So Choo over Quentin, right?
AJ Mass (11:42 AM)
Yes. That's the jist of the nub and all that.
Do you trust Holliday right out of the gates?
AJ Mass (11:43 AM)
Do I expect anything the first few games he comes back? No. Would I get him in my lineup? Yes. An 0-for-3 won't kill you and a HR and a few RBIs with him on your bench will make you kick yourself.
Is there any reason to hold onto Venters right now in 10 team mixed?
AJ Mass (11:44 AM)
Sure. With no saves yet, he's still top 40 relief pitcher in terms of value -- the saves may come, and his stats are still helping you in ratios.
Roger (Portsmouth, NH)
Wandy today vs FLA? Daily Notes you had Norris listed; Wandy has struggled but usually good at home.
AJ Mass (11:46 AM)
Yes, Astros pulled the switch well after column "went to press." I'd be cautious with Wandy, and be happy with 5IP/2ER/5K.
I know it's early, but does it seem like Morse is a colossal bust?
AJ Mass (11:48 AM)
Only if you moved him on your draft boards as a result of his spring numbers. Yes, a little bump was fine because he had won the LF job, but people were expecting way too much.
Someone just dropped Cuddyer in my 10-team mixed league. Worth a pick up?
AJ Mass (11:50 AM)
To stash on the bench maybe... but not to insert into the lineup just yet, unless you're really hurting at 1B or OF.
Jason (Crystal Lake)
Derek Lee or Alex Gordon in my CI spot? Who has the more value long term. Seeing Lee strike out every AB is killing me!!!
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
As down as I am on Gordon for his past disappointments, I will buy in for now -- at least over Lee.
Kendrick or A. Hill for balance of year?
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
Kendrick for me.
Thoughts on Chris Young the pitcher?
AJ Mass (11:53 AM)
Pleasantly surprised with the start, need to see him a few more times before I buy in.
Ben (Upland, CA)
A.J., Have catcher issues. Have C. Ruiz at the moment. Should I keep him or pick up a waiver guy? Jaso, Arencibia, Hanigan, Ianetta and Salty still out there.
AJ Mass (11:54 AM)
Don't want Salty, but JP and Ryan are worth fliers.
Maxwell (Los Angeles)
Who get's more save opportunities - Koji Uehara or Joel Peralta?
AJ Mass (11:55 AM)
Peralta, assuming the Rays don't go 0-162.
Mike (San Diego)
I know as a stats guy, you probably aren't overreacting to anything this first week. That being said, is there ANYONE who you've changed your mind about in the first week for better or for worse?
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
Very good question, Mike. Off the top of my head... Jose Reyes looks a lot better than I expected and I have to say I am disappointed in Delmon Young.
Jose Bautista (Toronto)
will I be starting tonight ?
AJ Mass (11:58 AM)
If you make it to the park on time... and congrats!
Could you do a comparison of Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro? Both guys are doing great. Who do you like more long term?
AJ Mass (11:59 AM)
Castro for me. I just see him as being more able to get on base consistently. Andrus is deadly when he does reach safely, but it always looks to be a struggle.
4 for 22 was killing me. So I dropped Pujols. On a serious note, thoughts on W Valdez?
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
If you lost Nishi, he's a guy to consider -- at least in the short term. Plenty of support around him to help his stats.
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
That's the Noon cuckoo! Thanks to all who took part, and there's always Twitter for those Q's I couldn't get to. As always, good luck and may the odds be EVER in your favor.