Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Hello! Let's talk some football!
I am thinking of taking McFadden with the 8th overall pick in a 12 team .5 PPR. Your thoughts, please?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Found an interesting item about McFadden while researching the TFS Fantasy Draft Guide. His numbers are in many ways equal to Jamaal Charles' and yet he is considered to be just a step behind Charles in terms of fantasy value. Getting McFadden with #8 overall is a great pick.
KC, got to get another one in early.....Something is telling me Roy Williams and Jacoby Ford will have decent metrics this season. What say you TFS?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Am totally sold on Williams. Being back with Martz is a huge help for him and now that he is the starter, the sky is the limit. Like Ford but am not quite as sold on him.
Thanks for the chat. What do you think of my Fish? Can they challenge for 2nd in the AFC East with Henne or is the defence going to be the only thing to cheer about? Keep up the great work!
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Thanks for joining the chat! They are building a solid team in Miami but they just don't have enough offensive firepower. That places them well behind NE in the division. They aren't quite as far behind NY since Edwards left (he had by far the best vertical pass metrics on that team last year) but all in all they should have as much on that side of the ball as the Fins. Throw in their advantage on D and it looks like Miami is probably headed for a 3rd place finish.
Zac (The Bay)
K.C. - Who has a better chance at a breakout season: F. Jones, S. Greene, R. Matthews?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
They all look like 300 carry candidates. Mathews has to deal with Tolbert as a possible carry vulture and Greene has yet to show that he is explosive enough to be leaned on for that many carries. Jones may have the best shot but he's got Murray and Choice to deal with and has to battle the receivers/TEs. Probably would say Jones overall but it's darn close.
so now that the Steve Smith is not a NYG, the cat is sort of out of the bag on Manningham....still think he has a great year?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Yep. The TFS Draft Guide shows him with elite metrics across the board and a ridiculously favorable schedule. Quick FYI - more info about the guide can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com (only site plug of the chat).
Gorman ((Arlington, VA))
I'm so pumped up for my RAVENS tonight that I've loaded the pickup with a dozen bags of pepperoni rolls for the tailgate. How big of an impact are these preseason games for your player ratings KC?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Pepperoni rolls - the perfect tailgate food! Save a couple for me, will ya?! Re: the preseason games, other than certain bubble players and injuries, the preseason really doesn't enter much into the fantasy player ratings.
KC, In a recent article on ESPN, the Jets said that after the season they did an intensive breakdown of CB Kyle Wilson's season. They determined that it was better than first thought and that his rookie struggles were "overblown"...what does your analysis say ??????
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Wilson ended the year with a 7.3 YPA, a total that was good enough to rank tied for 40th in the league. He was like a lot of rookies - really rough around the edges early on, started to figure things out by the end of the year.
Larry Fitz (Arizona)
will I be better this year than Calvin Johnson or Hakeem Nicks?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Fitz has a pretty favorable matchup schedule and has improved quarterbacking, but Nicks' schedule is just as favorable. Would still take Nicks over Fitz at this point.
Donnie (Burlington, VT)
About the QB question in Denver, wouldn't it make sense to just use both guys? Orton is good at driving the team downfield and struggles in the red zone, and Tebow is a terrific run threat, which helps in the red zone... am I wrong with that line of thought?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
It would work as long as the rest of the players understood that Orton was the first-string QB and Tebow was second string. To move them in and out of the lineup without making that kind of thing clear would automatically lead to an unwanted, and unneeded, QB controversy.
Pepperoni rolls are perfect any time. A few pretty serious injuries already, KC. How will they affect your Fantasy rankings?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
The latest version of the guide has all of the injuries/player changes through August 8 accounted for. The next version of the guide will be sent out next week and it will account for any injuries/moves made from that point. It gets updated every 7-10 days through the end of the preseason.
Good Day KC, Hope you are doing well. Do you think the Pats D moves up the ranks with all the new signings. At first blush, it looked like they were loading up for pash rush, but after a second review it looks like the new wide bodies are there to shore up their rush D. Your thoughts?Thank You
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Good day to you as well, Kmac! And good eye on your part about the defensive moves. Their defensive moves look very much like they are aiming to find a way to slow down the Jets dominant rushing attack.
Dr. H. Doofenschmirtz (Tri-State Area)
Hey Gorman, chosen a new fantasy team name yet?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Great question - Gorman, what's the skinny on that team name?
KC, got the draft guide (with an assist from my mom if you remember) and had my draft last night. I ended up with Rivers, McFadden, Blount, Marshall at Flex, Nicks, Manningham, and Gates. did i do good?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Good to hear from you, Stephane! And please be sure to once again pass my thanks to your mother for helping out with that situation. Your draft picks look great. Not sure what the league set-up is but, barring injury, this team should be able to go toe to toe with just about anyone.
Passionate Cards fan here, very upset about my franchise being fleeced by the Eagles. Even more concerned that Maclin was my only legit keeper prospect this year, should I be concerned about the Steve Smith signing?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
There are conflicting reports about Smith. Some say he will be on the PUP list to start the year and therefore won't be able to play until week 8 (the Eagles are off in week 7). Other reports say he will be able to play early on. If Maclin's physical ailments do not prevent him from playing (a situation that was still being looked into at last check) and Smith is out, the Maclin pick will be a good one. If Smith can play or Maclin is hindered in any way, it could be a rough keeper pick.
if we buy your guide, do we get the updates sent to us for free? or are we better off and waiting a few weeks to get it?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Updates are free and sent to everyone who purchases the draft guide. No need to wait.
Al (Wausau, WI)
KC, I found out that I will be drafting second out of 14 people in our fantasy football league. Given my effort to improve on my 2-14 record from last year (my first in fantasy football), if Adrian Peterson is available, would you select him over Brady/Manning?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Unless your league has a huge scoring advantage for QBs, Peterson should be the top pick. His schedule could not be more favorable. If he isn't there, go with Foster.
I was partial to the Hartford Whalers suggestion, but as a husky man myself it struck a little too close to home. As a life-long fan of the work of Arnold Schwarzenegger, I'm leaning towards GORMANATOR for my team name. Definitely one of my favs so far.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Gorman finally weighs in on his team name. Looks like it is still up for grabs, so if you have any other ideas, send 'em over!
KC...I know you are all over Forte this season but do you have any concerns about him losing TDs inside the 5? His metrics were awful last year in those situations and they now have Taylor AND Barber...
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Not worried in the least about Taylor, as he had the worst good blocking YPA (GBYPA) of any back in the league last year. Barber's presence is a concern but as long as Forte can rack up something like 10 TDs (not an impossibility by any means), he should be a great fantasy producer this year. He's a great value pick as well, or at least he should be based on where he seems to be going in most draft rooms thus far.
KC, anything you can say to talk some of the Giants fans off the ledge? They (we) sure are a melodramatic bunch. And on a different topic, are you doing the fantasy chat leagues again this year?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
There are a lot of reasons to think the Giants are in good shape this year. Don't let the preseason stuff throw things off - Big Blue is still a Super Bowl contender. The chat fantasy leagues are definitely a go. Am working on PPR cheat sheets today and printing out the hard copies of the draft guide so they can be mailed out tomorrow. Plan on sending out league invites shortly after that, so look for it sometime this weekend.
last question about your guide. Is it a paper document or an file that is e-mailed to us right after we buy it?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Both. The standard version is a PDF that is emailed. The printed version does cost more, but those who buy the printed version also get the electronic version sent to them at no extra cost.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Got another suggestion for you, Gorman.
B (NC): Let me talk you off of your ledge here. At least you aren't a Redskins fan.
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
J.B. puts some much needed perspective on this with a bit of knock against another division rival.
Al (Wausau, WI)
B (NC): Or a Vikings fan!
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Stormin Gorman? Thoughts/ Metrics on MJD? Have the option to keep him in a fantasy league with my first round pick, but having trouble pulling the trigger on it.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
MJD is rated #13 on the TFS Draft Guide RB cheat sheet. His GBYPA was good but not great (6.5) and his schedule points are quite low (the higher the better in that category).
Do you think that Willis Mcgahee will replace Knowshon Moreno as the starter?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Probably not, and Denver may not even want him to. Fox likes to use a platoon backfield and will likely go with some form of that with these two.
Thanks guys. I'll pass on the good vibes to the hand-wringing Giants fans (although I've tried to talk sense into them before and it doesn't seem to work). In fact, I'll go ahead and add BUF, CLE, CIN, SEA, SF and a dozen other teams to the list.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
It's good to pass the word, but it's kind of a bummer that we can come up with 20 or so teams that are in that kind of shape.
All your praise for Big Ben had me keep him in my fantasy league. Then I see your draft guide and you have him 10th which is lower then most places and lower then Eli who I also could have kept. Whats up with that?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
He was placed at the #10 spot on the QB cheat sheet more because of attempt volume than anything else. He's rated as a near-elite, so that places him in the same neighborhood as the other near-elites (a list that includes Eli). That is what's up!
Nick Papageorgio (Yuma)
KC, I have been waiting a long long time for my niners to have another elite qb...is CK7 my guy? im not expecting instant greatness, but can he eventually take us back to the playoffs? (dare i say it) the superbowl? or should i bank on a flop this season and some LUCK in next year's draft?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
No need to bank on a flop. Kaepernick might end up being a good QB but don't give up on Smith. Harbaugh knows how to coach up QBs and Smith has already displayed top 15 QB skills in his career.
Mike ( San Diego)
KC, about R. Matthews and his ability to be a 300 carry guy. How do you come to that conclusion? The guy is already hurt, and I think he failed the conditioning test. That's a red flag for a RB if for anyone. I think he took the money and ran (or, wobbled, I guess)
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Mathews looked fantastic towards the end of last season. It just a matter of his getting into a stride. Franco Harris used to say that he wouldn't have made the Steelers roster based on his preseason performance, and that was because he was saving his energies for the season. Not saying Mathews is at Harris' level but it could very well be the same ploy.
Based on a .5 PPR, how would you rank the top 5 picks? Also, please give reason between 1 and 2 (Peterson vs. Foster)... Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Would like to help there, Roy, but I'm still working on the PPR cheat sheets. Ask in next week's chat and I'll be able to answer.
Dave (Wolcott, CT)
KC, I noticed that soem elite (Peterson, MJD, Turner, Rice) and non-elite (F. Jackson, Wells, Forsett) have OL win% rates significantly higher than the team totals for last season, do you think that this could negetively impact their performance this season if the win % regresses to the norm, or am I looking too deeply into it?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
One of the things about win rates is that RBs can actually help their O lines in that perspective. Top runners will oftentimes see potential POA losses in the blocking wall and will cut back to avoid them (thus helping save the O line from a loss). In other words, don't necessarily expect a regression to the mean for those backs.
Will Jahvid Best put up good numbers?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
The Lions had very good run blocking numbers last year. His issue will be health related as much as anything but as long as he overcomes that, quality totals should follow.
Fantasy Football Commish in Distress:I made a humiliating Prattfall by allowing teams in my fantasy league to trade future picks in this year's draft. Now a guy that flamed-out last year after trading early round picks this season has quit the league. What is a commish to do?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
That's a tough one. Any commissioners out there have some suggestions for Nicholas?
I am concerned that the Bears have made their top reciever the low man on the depth chart (Knox). Can you explain why Roy Williams is a better receiver than Knox in Mike Martz's offense.
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Because Martz is the one guy in the league who can motivate Williams to play to his talent level every week. It's a bad situation for Knox, as Hester has the FL position locked down and Bennett is a better slot WR (or at least looks to have skills that are better suited for the slot), but if Williams plays as well as he is capable, he can exceed the metrics Knox posted last year.
maybe ask someone to take the team over, but offer to pay his entry fee this year.
Nicholas don't invite that guy back and find someone to fill his position and be completely honest with how he will come into the league. Let him know to try his hardest and that he can come in and trade his players or picks to acquire more picks for this year.
so if I buy your draft kit, will I get the PPR sheets as well?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
PPR sheets will be sent out to everyone who purchased the draft guide. It's pretty straightforward - order the draft guide and every update (be it to the guide or just to the cheat sheets) will be sent over. No hidden costs, no add-on fees - everything is up front.
Love your work. Really having a tough time deciding between these 3 RBs; CJ, Rice and Charles in a .5 ppr league. Your thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
It's between CJ and Rice because Charles probably doesn't get the same carry/target total as those two. Rice has a much more difficult run schedule (one of the toughest in the league) so CJ gets the edge.
If Nicholas is really in a pickle ... maybe switch teams with the dude who bounced ..... if the league is that important ... bite the bullet for a year?
do you forsee beanie having a break out this season? thnx
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Maybe, but it depends on if his recent promotion over Williams is a short-term or long-term move. His GBYPA last year (5.5) was low enough that this move could be seen as a motivational ploy for either/both of those backs. Wait and see for a couple of weeks and we may know more.
What do you think of the rookie RB in Miami?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Daniel Thomas had a 6.1 GBYPA in three games against tough Big 12 defenses last season. That would be an OK mark in the NFL. He may be able to replicate that but if he has any drop-off from that total, he'll be a below-average RB.
Great work as always. You obviously use scheduling as a key metric to rate each player's performance, but how dependable is it really? Aren't you projecting something that has the propensity to change in a much greater manner than one player would?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Think of schedule strength as a tiebreaker. It isn't the type of metric that overrides every other (attempt volume is the number one factor) but if the other factors are pretty close and schedule strength is widely in favor of one player, it stands to reason that player is probably the better percentage play.
Bobby (Madison, WI)
TRADE UP QUESTION. I'm picking 4th in my league and plan to take Arian Foster. I can move up to the 1st pick and take Adrian Peterson if I surrender a 6th round pick. Is the gap between Peterson and Foster worth a 6th rounder? Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Tough call. Probably wouldn't make it as long as you know Foster will make it down that far, but if there is any doubt about that, make the trade. Giving up a 6th round pick to ensure you get Peterson/Foster/CJ2K is absolutely worth it.
Just snuck into the chat room before it ended! Mike Thomas is in his 3rd year and is the default number one receiver for Jacksonville. What kind of oppotunities and production do you think he will have based on his metrics?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
The line on Thomas' cheat sheet reads "Great metrics, just needs more targets." He might face more difficult coverage scenarios now that Sims-Walker is in St. Louis, but if the Jaguars get him 125-150 targets, he ought to be able to post breakout totals.
tdiddy (winnipeg) [via mobile]
why not start tebow? if he tanks the broncos will have a chance at andrew luck? does this not make sense or is it the reason i am not a nfl gm?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
No offense, but are you really suggesting the Broncos should intentionally tank a season? Andrew Luck is a very good NFL prospect but no player is worth doing that for.
Gotta run but thanks again for the time, KC. The more of this chat I get, the more excited I get about the upcoming season...even as a Vikes die-hard. Have a great week, everyone.
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Ain't that the truth. We've got some football to watch tonight! It's only preseason but it does feel good. Well, got some PPR cheat sheets to finish up so I've got to run. Two quick reminders. The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. The 2011 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now on sale at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!