Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Any thoughts on Early Doucet as a flex option for the rest of the season?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
His big catch came on a quick route where the defense left him uncovered. Hard to see that happening every week, so not quite on his bandwagon yet.
Shonn Greene (Sideline, again)
Why am I still watching LT? Am I caught up in a 2010 time machine? When should my owners give up and sell me for pennies on the dollar?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
The Jets run blocking in that game was quite bad, but that should improve over time. Can't quite give up on Greene just yet.
KC, help me win in Fezzik. Ryan Grant or Earnest Graham?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Are you playing Team TFS? If so, play Grant. If you are playing anyone else, play Graham (can't help you beat my team, right?).
Hey KC! When will sit/start rankings be emailed out? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Hey there! The start-sit charts are normally emailed out on Thursday morning, but we had a power outage last night (I usually work the overnights). Since that happened, figured it would be best to just wait for the Thursday injury reports to come out and then send them out then. Should be somewhere around 7 PM or so.
I know its too early to worry, but I invested as Manningham as my WR2. Will Manningham or Britt be better going forward?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Look for a huge comeback game for Manningham this week. The Rams secondary is very banged up and NY will have a lot of success against their CBs.
Fantasy question, play Flacco or Henne this weekend?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Tough call but Henne and the Fins have a more favorable set of coverage matchups. Would probably lean in that direction.
KC, thanks again for a great draft guide, but watching the Giants on Sunday shook my confidence in Manning and Manningham. Any thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
That game did look bad for NY, but wait until this week before beginning to lose any confidence. St. Louis lost Bartell this week and he's by far their best CB. NY will have success in the air.
Bobby (Madison, WI)
The highlight of my week...the KC Joyner chat! When can we expect to see the Start/Sit? Can I get a sneak peek....Jay Cutler or Matt Ryan this week? I'm worried this could be the 5 INT game for Cutler, but Ryan faces the Eagles and I suspect they'll run a lot.
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
As soon as the Thursday injury reports are released, I'll be finishing up the start-sits, so it won't be long! Cutler would be the way to go this week, as the Falcons have a tough coverage matchup against the Eagles.
KC, can you see Jordy Nelson putting up some wr #3 metrics, better option than Maclin for the season?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
It is entirely possible Nelson could win a starting role over Driver, so his upside is quite good. Having said that, Maclin is already a starter so his upside looks better (although the Rams contest wasn't a good omen).
Bobby (Madison, WI)
Where's Gorman?!?! Jay Cutler (@NO) or Matt Ryan (vPHI) for this week? Thank you.
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Haven't seen any posts from Gorman just yet. Would like to know how his team did last week. Cutler over Ryan.
Who would be your top five players from last week that you'd tell FFL owners not to panic about regarding their performance?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Hard to hit five in this type of forum, but let's say Eli, Manningham and Blount as a top 3.
Arian Foster (Houston)
Hey KC, do you think my fantasy owners should start me this weekend? Do you even think il get to play? If so..how much production should I expect? Im killing my fantasy owners...and i dont care! Thanks KC
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
If Foster starts, he has to be played in a fantasy league. If a team owner is worried about the possibility Foster will not be able to make it, the solution is to play both Foster and Tate. That way the big numbers that the Houston running game will give will automatically hit the bottom line.
Tony (Baton Rouge)
Non fantasy related question, which defensive rookie impressed you most this weekend?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Mind if I mention a college player? Jadeveon Clowney made a big play for South Carolina that showed why he was one of the most highly touted recruits in the country.
What does Mrs. Scientist have on the menu tonight?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
The decision hasn't quite been made yet, but tacos are on the list of possibilities (depends on if the kids are on board with that).
Once and for all, who is the better QB, Henne or Sanchez? And is Fitz better than both of them?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
I've bashed Sanchez quite often in the past but after looking at the tape of the Cowboys game, it was hard not to feel bad for the guy because of the lack of quality help around him. Check out this week's TFS Insider article for more on that.
Craig (Montclair, NJ)
Tell me to relax on Mark Ingram. Tell me we shouldnt think about Braylon Edwards in the flex.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Edwards is more worrisome than Ingram because at least Ingram is playing in a high-powered offense.
Are you confident Mike Wallace will get the ball often enough each week to be a WR1? There seems like an awful lot of options for Ben to chuck it to week to week...
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Wallace had the highest YPA of any WR in the league last year. He's by far the best receiving option on the Steelers. Don't worry too much about last week's game, as that was a confluence of events that won't happen often.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Would you package Forte and Tolbert/or Hightower to try for an elite RB like CJ, and keep the other for the flex?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
If I had a team with Forte, Tolbert and Hightower as RBs, I'd stand pat and not make a trade. Those three are all on pace to have terrific seasons (well, as long as Tolbert's injury does not slow him down).
Afternoon there scientist! What a fine day here in Charm City after my beloved Ravens took the Steelers to the woodshed!! (Thats all I got actually)
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Gorman weighs in on the Ravens-Steelers and is fired up over their win. Have to ask, did your fantasy team win last week? Everyone who pitched in team names wants to know.
Good Day KC, Manning or Flacco if Nicks does not play.Thank you
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Manning. That St. Louis secondary is in bad shape right now.
Tim Hightower: the good: 26 carries, Shanny really stuck with him. The bad: only 79 yards. What do you think KCJ?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
In the long run, carries override everything else. Hightower got the score, so his fantasy point total was still more than acceptable. Stick with him as a fantasy starter.
Fair enough on the three "Don't Panic" players. How about a name or two that you'd suggest owners not run to grab from the waiver wire just because they jumped out fast?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Newton is one in the sense that a lot of his great performance occurred because of the state of the Arizona CBs (Peterson struggled and Jefferson looked every bit like a first-year starter). Don't expect Vick-like numbers out of him, or anything close to those.
Buffalonian for life (Buffalo, NY)
Yo, KC! Alot of guys really don't trust my boy Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo. I'm really sold on him, though. Might I mention NO PICKS against a 41-7 romping of the Chiefs??? Do you think this guy has potential???
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
When he played for Mike Martz, Martz had many good things to say about Fitzpatrick. He's not a top 10 QB by any means, but to say that he could be in the top half of the league in QB play is not a stretch.
Angry Mike (SF, CA)
Scientist, my man! Been hearing all week about Romo's alleged 40 QB rating in the 4th Q last week. Do your numbers show that he is statistically worse in the 4th in his career, or is this just an isolated game?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Not sure on his career 4th quarter numbers but the bigger concern is his bad decision rate. Romo has struggled with that in the past and it cost him against the Jets. Dallas cannot afford to have him regress in this area.
Hey KC! Is it time to start to trust Steve Smith CAR? His first game with Cam was quite impressive, but regardless, he seems healthy and should get the majority of the targets, right?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
He was upgraded from a red rating to a yellow rating in this week's start-sit charts, but it has to be noted that a lot of his performance was a result of facing CBs who were playing poorly. He won't get those types of matchups every week.
Roddy White/Dez Bryant for Foster/Britt, who wins?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Tough call. Foster is the obvious choice if he is healthy, but that is a big if. Probably wouldn't make the trade unless the White/Bryant team is in bad shape at RB.
John (Helena, MT)
How come the stats section of ESPN.com currently uses the traditional quarterback rating system? I thought you guys were committing to the QBR? And which rating system do you prefer?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Why not have access to both? That way one can see the difference in what QBR measures versus what passer rating measures. The differences can be dramatic, as Peter Keating points out in a very interesting Insider article this week. Check it out if you get a chance.
Scott Chandler (Buffalo)
This will be the best game of my career, right?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Probably, but maybe we are just seeing the start of a good career. Worth keeping an eye on, that's for sure.
I think Fred Davis is ready to make the leap.... what say you Scientist? Is the lab television improved for 2011??
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
We are always making technology improvements in the lab. Just yesterday, we even installed a fax machine. Davis could very well end up being the lead TE there, as Cooley's injury is keeping him from playing up to his previous level.
I read an excerpt where Torry Holt Said Ocho would struggle early because of the terminology, etc. Do you think he eventually becomes a playmaker later in the season?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
If Ochocinco can't line up properly on every play (see the illegal formation penalty he picked up), Belichick won't put him on the field much. If that is terminology related, then it is correctable. If something else is the cause, Ochocinco could be bench fodder for a while.
Slim Shady (MD)
Hey, man. What is the DEAL with Big Ben??? I mean C'MON MAN!!!! The Ravens D was epic, don't get me wrong, but this just can't continue. Do you think he'll get his act together starting this sunday???
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
It's one game, man! And Baltimore was peeved over Pittsburgh's offseason comments. The Steelers will be fine this year.
I need help with a WR but there's not much on the waiver wire. Any recommendations? I'm thinking about giving Brandon Stokley a shot. Good pickup?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
He's got the talent but its always hard to recommend a waiver pick who is joining a team after the start of the season. If one of the NO wideouts is available, that might be a better way to go.
PT (Franklin, NC)
How about that Raiders running attack led by Darren McFadden, did they look even better than expected? How realistic if he can stay healthy, is that McFadden could lead the league in rushing?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Over the past three years, McFadden has equaled Jamaal Charles in yards per game. That he could lead the league in rushing if he stays healthy is definitely a realistic thought.
Lewis (Flint Michigan)
Was Detroit's defense that good or Tampa's offense just stink?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Tampa's O line was the worst run blocking group in the league last year and that game showed they still need some work. Having said that, Detroit's D line is that good and their secondary looked much improved (Chris Houston is back to his very good 2010 coverage level).
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Yeah, I know, one game, but should we slow our roll on VJax? or will he have a monster year?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
He's got a brutal schedule, so it should not be assumed he will post dominant numbers.
First time playing PPR and I'm trying to determine Darren Sproles value. If I'm trying to trade him away for a WR, what level WRs should I be targetting? Maclin, Santana Moss, or a different tier?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Maclin/Moss might be a bit much to ask for in some owners eyes, but it doesn't hurt to ask. The worst that can happen is the other owner says no and you make a counter offer.
Rex Grossman (D.C.)
See, I TOLD you not to forget about me!
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Ask around this chat room, Rex. I've been backing you for years.
KC, Kindly talk about Houston's improved D. Will they truly be the sleeper D of the year?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
In a word, yes. They do have some tough matchups at times, but that's true of pretty much every defense.
It seemed to me that the basic premise of the Keating piece that passer rating is a worse measure than TQR because it doesn't measure the same thing as TQR. Unless the headline was just meant to provoke clicks and he actually doesn't indicate that PR is necessarily worse than TQR
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
I always take the Bill James approach to situations like this. James didn't want his new stats to replace the old stats, but rather to have them offer some things that the old stats didn't. Total QBR does that, but it doesn't require the elimination of passer rating. In fact, since we don't have QBR totals for historical players, it's a good idea to keep passer rating around as a tool to help gauge historical performance.
JP Losman (Who the heck knows)
Hey I thought I was the QB you backed the most!!!
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Yeah, where in the heck is JP? Is he CFL bound or just taking it easy?
With Foster a go. Who rides the pine Beanie or Felix?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Tough call, would probably say Beanie.
Percy Harvin (calling Fav-ruh)
Are you worried about me? I'm obviously talented and in my 3rd year, but will I be double teamed andsuffer from McNabb's inaccuracy?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Let's not forget that San Diego has a pretty good defense. They've got some better targets in Tampa Bay's defense (Talib is terrible in coverage), so let's give this another week before throwing in the towel on the Vikings players.
Sage Rosenfels (IR)
We all know who you REALLY back the most, KC. I shall return!
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
WHAT ABOUT SAAAAGE SCIENTIST! Dont even look at losman. More like LOSSman.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Leave it to Jimmy to point out the true QB hero of this chat!
You keep standing by Eli Manning after his horrible pre-season and bad 1st game. What are you seeing that many of us are not?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
He looks just as bad on tape as his numbers suggest, but playing a banged up secondary can make any offense look good. That's why I'm not giving up on Eli for this week.
Didn't Losman go to the UFL?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
So would you start P Harvin over Tolbert at flex?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Not if Tolbert is healthy, but keep an eye on that.
Speaking of Felix, a bunch of your associates are down on him, but I thought he looked good against a excellent Jets D. Agree?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
He didn't have quite the burst that he was showing in the preseason, but some of that had to do with the Jets D and some of it had to do with the Cowboys blocking. Not giving up on him in the least at this point.
Just checked the UFL roster...no JP Losman there.
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Believe he was there last year. Must be taking a break now.
I'm a giant fan who thinks Aaron Ross is lucky to be in the league right now. Would have been cut if Thomas and Prince hadn't been hanged up. What say you and is Ross / Webster the worst CB tandem in the league right now?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Ross is really hit/miss. He'll have some other games where he struggles, but he'll also have some good contests. NY can't afford the former but they really have no choice with him in the lineup.
Alex (Washington, D.C.)
Should I start Manningham over Mike Williams?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Which Mike Williams? Assuming TB, but want to confirm.
Hightower a good play over MJD this week? Tough matchup for MJD.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Can't say this enough - if you have Hightower, consider him a must start over just about every other RB (with the obvious exceptions of Peterson, CJ2K, etc.). Be like Shanahan and play him until he wears down.
Whats your take on Jermaine Gresham?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
He has the look of a very good TE2. Would definitely find a spot on the roster for him if TE is a need roster spot on a team.
but what are the odds hightower gets 100% of the 'Skins RB carries every game?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
He is the bell cow right now. Don't worry about Helu or Torain unless and until Hightower a) starts to wear down physically or b) fumbles the ball a couple of times. Shanahan will stick with him until then.
CJ2K is a must start this week? Over Tolbert or Shonn Greene?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Yep. Talent of that caliber should not be benched just because of a bad week 1. For a point of reference, remember when he had a bad game against the Steelers in that Thursday night season opener a couple of years back? He still went on to have a great season but at that moment, many people were considering benching him. This year could be a repeat of that.
Jeff (NY, NY)
What are your thoughts on Dwayne Bowe the rest of the year? I just don't know that I have the patience that he requires.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
He'll be hit and miss, but that been his modus operandi for most of his career. Cassel is just not a good vertical passer and until that changes, Bowe's numbers will continue to be hot and cold.
Well unlike Tony Romo, this chat is great right to the final minute. Gotta run but thanks to you, KC, and the rest of the bunch. I'll see everyone next week. Hope all of your FFL players put up big numbers for you...unless you are facing me that is. Good night.
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
Very funny! Really appreciate you and everyone posting some really cool questions. It is possible that the Friday fantasy football chats will start tomorrow (working on some schedule logistics), so keep an eye out for that. Before going, should also mention that the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. More info about the start-sit service can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week (or maybe even tomorrow!).