Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Marco (South Beach)
I hate to steal Jimmy's thunder, but is it time for Sage Rosenfels to take over in Miami?
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
No thunder stolen, as Rosenfels is now out for the season. He'll definitely be a discussion topic next year, as he is a free agent.
Tommy (hurry my boss is coming)
KC, I know its early and there isnt much talent around gabbert but of the games ive seen mostly the ravens and saints game he looks afraid when the pressure is coming do you believe he will ultimately be successful in the nfl? i mean his college #'s werent that great as well
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Gabbert had issues feeling the pocket pressure in college, and that was in a system that didn't have him staying in the pocket full time. It might be that he figures out how to keep his poise in the pocket but if he doesn't have it now, the odds are he won't ever have it.
Frank (Minneapolis) [via mobile]
KC, can we finally put the talk to rest about who is the best running back in the NFL? AP and CJ2K both have their contract extensions and the results are speaking for themselves.
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
We can't do that until Forte gets his money. Then we'll see how he responds to it and can have an apples to apples comparison between he and Peterson.
Ok, KC, you couldn't tout Greg Little enough last week against a soft Sea pass D and we all know how that turned out (not that I blame you). So which young WR1--Little or Demaryius Thomas--is better positioned to succeed this week at the hands of his respective weak-armed QB?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Yeah, I got the Little pick wrong, but I'm not exactly Tebowing because of it. Been a pretty good year overall. Still like Little long-term but would probably take Thomas over him this week.
KC, I did see some good out of Ponder this past weekend but I'm having trouble getting by the two underthrown INTs and the 40 percent completion ratio. If they end up drafting top five, should they go after a QB?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Ponder did a lot of things well last week and may be the answer at QB for the Vikes. Let's see how he does after more than one game before throwing in the towel on him.
KING KEVIN (VA)
and Marco, it's Losman time in Miami ;)
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Ah, yes, we can't forget about Losman. He was a TFS chat favorite for many years. Just hoping he still has something left in the tank if they decide to play him.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)
Aloha KC!!! Which team should take a chance and sign T.O.???
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Aloha to you as well, Lane! Owens is an aging, injured WR with locker room issues. Not sure any team should take that chance.
Do you think Murray is the real deal? Can he be a legit RB1 for the ROS or is there going to be committee in Dallas?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
As noted in this week's TFS ESPN.com Pass Plays article, Murray's performance has as much to do with the lousy Rams run D as anything. The Dallas backfield has the look of a platoon/RBBC once Jones returns.
do you think spiller will be effective as wr?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Yes and no. Buffalo will do some things to help get him open, but he still is limited by the types of routes he can run. Unless/until he learns to run more of the tree, there is only so much he can do to be effective. Just think of it as the Hester corollary.
KC, love your stuff (although last week's Greg Little call could've killed me)! Not holding it against you though. This week, I've got Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger - both nice matchups. Who's your pick?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Would go with Eli in this one.
josh (association of panicking CJ2K owners)
hey KC - loved your analysis on the fantasy focus podcast. hope they have you on more often. im thinking of trading CJ2K for benson or mendenhall because im bound for the fantasy playoffs and each gets STL in weeks 15/16. what do you think?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Thanks for that. Doing that podcast was fun and I hope to be doing more of that type of material in the future. Mendenhall would be the best trade of those two, not sure the other owner will go for it unless CJ2K has at least one really good game.
this might surprise you coming from someone in the great metropolis of philadelphia but i think a team could definently use TO, particularly the Titans. I know they went down a similar road with Moss last year, but the passing attack has really struggled since kenny brit went down with his knee injury. thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
To add Owens to a team that nearly fell apart and is having issues between its RB and blockers just isn't a high percentage move.
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Nearly fell apart last week, that is.
Nate W. (Washington)
KC: You correctly liked Hightower over Torain last week. Is your gut really liking Helu over Torain?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
For the rest of the year, absolutely. Torain is very good but he's very injury prone. Even if he starts as the lead back for the moment, the odds are that Helu will have that role soon enough.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)
I thought the Chiefs were gonna tank it after Charles and Berry went down but now I see them beating the Chargers this week. Haley for coach of the year if they win the AFC west???
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
We might even see a Haley for president campaign if he does that.
Can you explain the hatred a lot of people have for Shonn Greene? He has looked better recently.
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Jets fans are always tough on players when they don't perform well (heck, they are tough on them even when they do play well). Greene is hitting the gaps faster and toughing out extra yards, and the blockers are blocking better for him. This situation is going to continue to improve.
Michael Meyers [via mobile]
May not be here for tomorrows fantasy chat cuz I'll be scaring trick or treaters but as far as Darren Sproles is his value with all his targets valuable enough to trade straight up for Cam Newton in a PPR league?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Let that serve as an early Happy Halloween to everyone! No way Sproles for Newton is an even trade, even in a PPR league.
And if Greene runs better, does Sanchez improve his numbers or will the cold weather setting in offset any potential improvement? Seems like the California kid has his issues when it gets cold.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Sanchez's issues this year had as much to do with not having much talent at WR as anything else. If Burress is finally getting back to form (and don't think that has been clarified just because of his one good game against an inconsistent Antoine Cason), that may change, but otherwise it needs to be more of the Ground and Pound attack.
Thoughts on Braylon ROS? Thanks for the chat!
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
A healthy Edwards is one of the best vertical receiving threats in the NFL. He may not be a good start this week, but all in all he's apt to have a very good second half of the season if his injury recovery is progressing well.
Jeff Roemer (Tampa)
KC-TFS, haven't been in a chat in awhile; falls are always busy with the overlap of NFL & MLB.. Q: What background/opinion do you have on Marc Mariani. I think he could be a breakout guy for them if given more targets. He's dangerous w/the ball in his hands, has good speed/vertical/arm length tools; I just don't know much about his aptitude or route running.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Hey, good to hear from you, Jeff! Hope all is well. Mariani could be a very solid option for the Titans offense for all of the reasons you mentioned.
KING Kevin (VA)
I agree with The Hoodie when he says the NFL should do away with gimmie plays like the extra point. How do you think the game would change if they moved the XP back to say the 20 and it was a 37 yards extra point. More coaches gambling going for 2? More misses every so often?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
If the NFL is do away with the extra point because it is a gimme kick, why not just give teams an automatic three points whenever they get inside the two-yard line? In other words, if a 19- or 20-yard field goal is a play that teams have to convert, why not make teams convert the extra point? They are equivalent kicks from a skill perspective. Extra point needs to be kept.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
If Demaryius Thomas stays healthy, I think he and Eric Decker could be one of the better young tandems in the league..are you high on them at all?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Definitely sold on Thomas as long as he can stay healthy. And Decker, while not as talented as Thomas, does a lot of things well and is a good complement to what Thomas does well. They could be a top-10 WR pairing if they can stay healthy and get enough work together.
Is Boldin/Battle too much to pay for Shonn Greene?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Yep. Battle is going to post quality totals and Boldin has some very favorable matchups both this week and in week 10.
Matt Stafford has looked like a different qb the last two weeks, even his facial expressions show indifference maybe frustration what gives?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Teams are starting to figure out how to slow this offense down. That will frustrate anyone but Stafford will get through it OK.
Hi KC! What are your thoughts on an improving DHB, and does he get better when (or if) Carson gets a better hold of the offense? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
DHB's route running is much improved this year. As noted in a TFS Pass Plays article from a couple of weeks ago, most of his yardage this year has come from non-stretch vertical routes (those thrown 30 or more yards downfield). That means he'll be able to produce at whatever level the QB needs.
So what are your thoughts on my play thus far this year?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
This was reviewed in the TFS Insider article on Tim Tebow from a couple of weeks back. In a nutshell, Newton is throwing a ton of vertical passes and is making a ton of mistakes. Once he gets those mistakes down to a more reasonable level (easier said than done), he's got the talent to be a top 10 QB as soon as next year.
So what are you thoughts on my play for the rest of the year?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
If Freeman has Blount in the backfield, he'll be good. If not, it could be a tough second half of the year for TB.
You said Stafford will get through everything OK. Can he get back to the pace from his first few weeks?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
The guess here is that he won't, or at least he won't do so consistently.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)
If the Rams had the first pick in the 2010 NFL draft to do over again would they still have taken Bradford over Suh???
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Bradford would still be the way to go. The Rams issues are that they haven't been able to keep any WR around for an extended period of time (just look at the injuries and personnel changes they've made at that position over the past two years). Once that changes, Bradford will continue his progression into being a top 10 QB.
I have the best vertical passing stats in the league. My mistakes are all within 15 yards, quite a few tipped I must say. But you have your own opinion of me, thats cool. Let's revisit this at the end of the year.
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
The mistakes are not a matter of tipped passes - they are matter of Newton being a rookie and making some of the same errors every rookie QB makes (don't forget that even Peyton Manning did this, as he had 28 ints his first year). Don't make excuses for his mistakes. He needs to correct them and there is every reason to think he will be capable of doing so.
So you aren't backing down on your comment that Newton was not worth a first round pick...its easy to admit a mistake KC, just say you mesed up
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
I'll say this - Newton was a great first round pick for the Carolina Panthers. He ended up in what is turning out to be a perfect situation for him. Had he gone to another team that didn't give him the situation Carolina did, it might be a much different story.
So, how do I look this year?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Before last Sunday - quite solid. Last Sunday - not so much. Need more of the former before signing off on his being a quality NFL starting QB.
Do you think Cam has enough receiving talent surrounding him, KC, or would it be a good idea for Carolina to address that in the 2012 draft?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
He's got Steve Smith, who has returned to his old form. Carolina is also using Olsen and Shockey as de facto WRs and they have created a lot of mismatches against LBs and safeties. He could use another strong WR and Carolina could have some options there, as this year's draft will have more than a couple of very good WRs.
PT (Franklin, NC)
Do you mean that if Cam Newton had went to a team where he had to sit and wait his turn he would have failed? Seems like backwards logic to the usual way of treating rookie QBs.
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
What that means is that he went to a Carolina team that was fully committed to him as the starter. Many teams wouldn't cut him loose to throw 17 vertical passes per game and would also be apt to bench him because of the huge mistake volume. Carolina has let him be aggressive and work through the error making process that is the early part of nearly every top NFL QBs first season or two.
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Let me put it this way - if Newton had ended up in, say, Miami, would he be anywhere near as successful as he has been in Carolina? The answer is almost certainly no.
Are defenses finally starting to catch up to offenses (after starting so slowly)?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
In the passing game, yes. In the running game, offenses are starting to get their synchronization back in the realm of blocking. That should mean more of a balance between run and pass that what was seen in the first few weeks of the season.
Ryan F. (Tulsa, OK)
So basically CAR decided to rip the band-aid off. Seems smart to me.
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
That's one way to put it.
I know this isn't the fantasy chat, but I need to make a decision NOW, so could you please help? I need to drop one guy, Greg Little or Delone Carter. Who do you think has the better ROS? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
This will be the exception post of the day. Keep Little, as the Colts look like they are about to completely fall apart.
how andy dalton
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
If it weren't for the presence of Cam Newton, one could make a case for Dalton as rookie of the year. Check out this week's TFS ESPN.com Insider article on why the Bengals should be taken seriously as a playoff contender for more info.
If Alex Smith takes the 49ers to the playoffs what are the chances he signs an extended contract next year?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Smith has been on the precipice of being a very good QB for a few years now. Having Harbaugh as his coach has been just what he needs to turn the corner and if he continues at his current pace, SF should think of him as their QB for the next few years.
Unfortunately I think the Vikings went about their QB issue the wrong way and now they have Donovan McNabb eating up money that might have been better invested elsewhere.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
That stadium issue had to weigh in as part of why they made that move. They wanted to do everything possible to make the team good for early in the season when the stadium push was going on. It's a shame it didn't turn out better, as the Vikings may end up moving.
Scott (Boston, MA)
if Indy gets the #1 pick and the consensus is that Manning will be healthy going forward, do they still take Luck? If so, isn't that basically saying that management doesn't think Manning can win another ring?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
It would be management saying a 35/36-year old QB with multiple neck procedures in the past two years isn't as good as maybe the best college QB prospect since Peyton was in the draft.
Baseball people have a saying: "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect." Is that true of running backs, too? Rather than pay a ton to an RB (like DeAngelo or CJ2K), why not put your money where there's more competition for scarce resources--offensive line?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Al Davis and John Madden always thought that the two highest priority building blocks on a team were CB and O line. It doesn't take a dominant RB to win and as long as a team has quality run blocking, they can move the ball on the ground. Paying big bucks for anyone other than the Peterson/Forte types just doesn't make a lot of sense.
Mike (San Diego)
KC...extremely late to the chat...Iggles/Pokes...who do you have and why? I'm going Iggles in a laugher....37-13
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Can't quite go that far but will agree that the Eagles probably win this one.
How do you figure Bernard Scott will do this week against a better than advertised Seattle D @ home?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
The Bengals run blocking has been good (see this week's TFS ESPN.com Insider article on Cincinnati for more details) and Seattle now is even weaker in its secondary since Thurmond is out for the year. As long as the Bengals can threaten that secondary, they should be able to run the ball quite effectively.
Who do you like in the Mike Wallace-Devin McCourty matchup this week?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
You are kidding, right? Wallace by a mile. He's the best WR in the NFL and McCourty, to be kind, is not the best CB in the NFL.
37-13? Wow ... underestimating Rob Ryan's D, much?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Yeah, that score seemed a bit much. Ryan's D is the best in the league against the run and is much improved in pass D over last year's group.
If we are lucky, there will never be another NBA game!
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Can't say I'm an NBA fan but it would not be cool to see an entire season obliterated. The league and players just need to follow the Bill Simmons plan and they can get back to playing basketball sooner rather than later.
Bobby (Madison, WI)
KC! Life's good when you listen to TFS. When do expect the Start/Sit Update for this week to come out?
Start/Sit Update (KC Land)
I will be sent out to my subscribers at ________________.
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
They are largely done, just need to do some write-ups and update them with the Thursday injury report. Look for them either later this evening or on the overnight.
Just an idea: I don't know J.B. (PA), but it would be fun if you guys added him or her to the lineup for a Cover It Live. He or she always has thoughtful things to say.
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
It would be great to have J.B. join the CIL chats. I do those most Sundays and every Monday night.
Great chat as always, KC. Gotta run but looking forward to Fantasy Chat tomorrow. Be good, all, and may your dinner taste as good as KC's will.
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
The menu this evening is mushroom chicken with vegetables/rice and freshly baked bread - good stuff. Well, it's been fun but that dinner is about on the table, so I've got to run. Quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. Tomorrow's fantasy football chat starts at 3 PM ET. You can also check out the podcast I did with Nate Ravitz this morning - just go to the ESPN fantasy football home page and scroll down to the podcast menu. Hope to see you all here tomorrow!