Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Heather (US Air Force, Warner Robbins Ga.)
Afternoon KC! I concerned about Miami's D.Thomas! Will he ever get over hamstring injury and perform as he can? Thanks
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Afternoon to you as well! Thomas does have some quality matchups over the rest of the season (Buffalo twice, Philly) but hamstrings can linger and the team might end up throwing in the towel if things continue to go badly. Not liking his overall odds much, in other words.
hey kc, what do you make of the giants backfield now that bradshaw is out? 60:40 split between jacobs and ware?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
That sounds about right. They could also make a lot more use of the short passing game since their WR/TE corps looks to be in really good shape right now.
KC, what is wrong with Philip Rivers?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Matt Williamson thinks it might be an injury that isn't enough to keep him out of a game (and thus won't be put on an injury report) but is still enough to slow him down. His accuracy is off and at last check his bad decision rate was four times as high as it was last year.
Beavis (AC/DC concert)
KC, would you drop Winslow to grab Ballard for ROS?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Have yet to see the new Beavis and Butthead but did DVR it. Anyone see it? Getting Ballard is the way to go.
What do expect out of Julio Jones for the ROS. Do you see him being a top 10-12 WR in terms of production?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
It all depends on how healthy he is. If that isn't an issue, he can be a top 10 WR.
KC, who's got the upper hand in the Bills/Jets game?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Jets. The Bills passing offense is starting to falter and Revis will shut down Steve Johnson.
KC, Forte or McCoy...which one has the better game on MNF (this isn't a fantasy question, just pure speculation by your metrics and thoughts)?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
They are both great backs but Forte is having what could be a season for the ages. He is on pace to threaten the all-time single season yards from scrimmage mark and has a ridiculously high 11.2 GBYPA. To put that number into perspective, consider that CJ2K in his 2,000 yard season had a GBYPA in the low 9-yard range. Have to say Forte.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
With Cruz and Ballard emerging and Mario rounding into form, does this hurt Hakeem Nicks' numbers?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
It's possible but he is still the most reliable WR on the Giants roster. They will still throw him 6-8 passes per game and as good as he is, that should be enough to keep his production level high.
Andy (Vestal NY)
More promising WR prospect-- Robert Woods, Justin Blackmon, or Michael Floyd?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Would have to say Blackmon in that he has been more consistent than the other two. That could change down the stretch, though.
Jimmy N (DC)
Greetings Sidge! With the Skins O-Line banged up, and Moss, Hightower, and Cooley also out, what can Kyle Shanahan do to make this offense go a little? Give him some SAGE advice!
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Greetings to you as well, Jimmy! The Skins should trust their O line replacements and keep running the football. They also ought to consider putting Grossman back in the lineup. Yes, he was a bad decision waiting to happen, but Beck just doesn't have his upside.
Ed (Saginaw, MI)
Love your stuff KC! Is Revis having his best season yet?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
The best way to put it is that he is covering just as well as he did in his phenomenal 2009 season. Can't say he's doing better than in 2009 but to do as well means he is playing at a Hall of Fame caliber pace.
If there is a worse coach in college football than Randy Edsall, I would be surprised. He has turned Danny O'Brien from a likely 1st round pick, to a QB timeshare. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
The collapse of O'Brien is one of the most disappointing storylines of the 2011 college football season. Not sure how much of that goes on Edsall but even partial blame would make him a candidate for having the worst season of the year.
Larry (Pasco, WA)
So with Rivers bad decision rate and possible injury, is there any reason to believe he will turn it around soon?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
It is never a good idea to bank on injured players turning things around during the season. It can happen, but the odds are not good.
Help me Scientist! I'm on the ledge, thinking about jumping. Tell me Flacco and the Ravens are better than this.... please??!
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
The issue with the Ravens is that they made too many passing game changes in one lockout-shortened offseason. They are definitely better than this and will be OK long-term. Now get back inside before you fall!
Mary P. (Flatrock)
KC, who in your eyes is the BEST pass rusher in the NFL? My guess is either D. Ware or Jared Allen.
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Those two are strong contenders. Would have to also include Tamba Hali.
Tommy (the big easy)
KC how many 1st rd picks will we be watching saturday night and who's your pick to win the game?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
The over-under on 1st round picks would probably be 4. And Alabama wins the game because their running game is appreciably better than LSU's. Speaking of the SEC, check out today's TFS ESPN.com Insider article on South Carolina. It shows how the Gamecocks could have a path to an SEC title (hint: they need LSU to win).
Craig (Montclair, NJ)
Care to retract your article about how great Joe Flacco is? He couldnt hit water if he threw from a boat! Completion % is woeful. The weapons are there (Rice, Boldin, Smith, 2 TE). No more excuses scientist!
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Can't do on that just yet because the weapons are not there. And, if you remember, the article said he was just as good as Rivers in getting vertical production out of non-vertical wideouts. Well, Rivers isn't exactly tearing it up this year, so those two are still in the same boat.
Do you see Nnandi continuing to guard opposing TE's the rest of the season? he's done a bang up job on Cooley and Witten.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
It will happen at times, but this week they will keep Nnamdi on Roy Williams. Williams doesn't deal well with physical CB play, so look for Nnamdi to make him work all game long. Really like the Eagles in that matchup.
Rob (San Antonio)
Do you see Wallace or Boldin having a bigger game?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
No contest - Wallace. He is the best WR in the NFL.
Rivers possible injury aside, why is Vincent Jackson having issues? I know he has played some top CB, but are things looking better for him?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Things don't look quite as bad CB-wise for Jackson, but they aren't getting a whole lot better. He has Woodson this week, Bailey again in three weeks, Webb in week 15 and Houston in week 16. He'll start to improve in the games where he isn't facing that caliber of competition but all in all he isn't going to get back to his usual dominant play.
Julio Jones really a top 10 WR??? Is this a "could" be or "numbers show he will" be? How would you rank him against fellow 2nd half sleepers Brandon Lloyd & Crabtree.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
He was on pace to post very good numbers prior to his injury, so it isn't just a matter of scouting opinion. Like his odds better than Crabtree if only because the Niners are a run-first team. Lloyd's will have a good 2nd half but he could be limited by the state of the Rams.
Nate (Tulsa, Ok)
Hey Scientist! What the hades do I do with Chris Johnson? I cant drop him and no one wants him. In my opinion, BIGGEST FANTASY BUST EVER!!!!
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Couldn't agree more. It was clear after three weeks that he was going to falter (as noted in that week's Pass Plays article), so the time to trade him was back then before it became clear to everyone this was a season to write off.
Steve (Grand Island, NY)
Revis may shut down Stevie Johnson but the Bills offense isn't dependent on him. I think the bigger concern for the Jets should be how do you shut down Fred Jackson. I don't think they will, and FredEx turns out to be the difference-maker in a Bills victory.
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
I am completely on the Fred Jackson bandwagon. For proof, check out yesterday's TFS ESPN.com Insider article that showed why the Bills should sign Jackson to a new contract despite his relatively advanced age.
Darryl (Oakland, CA)
Umm no, Wallace is not the best WR in the NFL...maybe top 10, but he can't touch Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson, I'm sorry.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Check out the TFS article from a couple of weeks back that showed why Wallace is a better WR than Megatron. He tops Megatron in nearly every category.
How is Wallace better than Calvin when Calvin is beating Wallace in most stats. yards, tds, 1st downs. Wallce also has more talent around him with Big Ben, Mendanhall, emanuel sanders, heath miller and Brown. Wallace also plays against single coverage alot more.
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Johnson now has four more yards than Wallace and it only took him 17 more targets to get there. This is not to say Johnson is anything but a great WR but Wallace is by far the more productive of the two on a per attempt basis (and in many other ways).
Weaz (Bay City)
Lions CB- Chris Houston is having a great season, so far. Would you say he's playing like a top 10 CB right now?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Yep. Only bad game was the Dallas contest and he ended up turning that game around with a pick.
Ryan F. (Tulsa, OK)
Maybe Wallace beats Calvin Johnson in all other categories, but not nickname. Bestowing the Megatron moniker is probably Roy Williams' most significant contribution to football.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I will grant that Megatron is by far the best nickname in the league. CJ2K was the only real contender, but now that has been replaced by CJ0K, which just doesn't have the same ring.
yards per is irrelevant. How about 1st downs and touchdowns. Calvin is killing wallace.
Mike Wallace doesn't even top the Steelers in targets....you're overthinking on this one
Mikey (Beth Park in Lack,NY)
MEGATRON is the best WR in the NFL IMO! But Wallace is rising rapidly.
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
To everyone slamming this pick, please read the article. There is a lot of research that went into it and that research cannot be effectively summarized in the chat format. Trust me, Wallace is truly that good.
Hearing lots of buzz around Trent Richardson. How does he project to the NFL? Is he more of a Charles-like speed back, an AP-like demi-god, or a forte/fjax Jack-of-all-trades?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Think more Peterson than Charles in the case of Richardson. He's easily the best RB in college football right now.
Squall (Balamb Garden)
Why can't Miles Austin be in this greatest-WR-in-the-league debate? Freakin' Cowboys.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Austin was one of the subject's of this week's Pass Plays article. His issue is that the Cowboys are using him as a dink-dunk WR at the moment.
Jackson (Houghton Lake)
Think Tebow will EVER be a servicable starting QB? Sure looks like he has a life time of improving to do.
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Tebow will only succeed if he has a coaching staff willing to commit to him and develop an offense that takes advantage of his skills. If one didn't know any better, it would seem that the Broncos are trying to put Tebow into situations that don't take advantage of his skills and all but assure his failure.
Wallace is a one trick pony. Greg Jennings does it all. Where does he stack up against the best?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Thanks very much for bringing Jennings into the conversation. He was actually a consideration to add to the Wallace vs. Megatron article. A case could be made that he is just as good as either of those two.
Jimmy N (DC)
K Sidge you did call it on CJ2K (or is it CJ3YPC??). Well done there. What do you think about Skins RB Roy "Hello!" Helu? He seems to have fresh legs.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
CJ3YPC - it's a bit of a long nickname but it works! Only reason for bringing up that CJ2K call was to note that his productivity had been off all season long and to wait until week 9 to try to move him is just too long to wait. Helu has done well in the GBYPA metric. Only concern is if he'll get enough carries in the Redskins platoon backfield.
Henry Thomas (Essexville)
What are your thoughts on Suh? Is he better than Ngata and is he a dirty player?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Suh is definitely better than Ngata. Regarding whether or not he is a dirty player, the term dirty should only be used for players who cheap shot. Suh is the type of player who, if he wants to beat the heck out of someone, will do it man to man, so that is not a term I would use to describe him.
Alex (East Hanover)
Starting a franchise.. Newton or Luck?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Great question. Would say Luck, but he's only slightly ahead of Newton.
Ahh man Cam Newton puts up better numbers than Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees. You know what that means...he is the better football player!! Numbers don't tell the whole story
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Newton is also throwing a ton of picks and making bad decisions at a rate that would embarrass Jay Cutler. Keep those numbers in mind and his whole story gets a lot closer to being told.
Do you think John Randle is the best DT of ALL-Time?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Randle was great but he cannot be placed ahead of someone like Bob Lilly or Joe Greene. Those two were cornerstones of a franchise and Randle, as dominant as he was, was not quite to that level.
Classic KCJ move. Make a sensational (and not true) statement to get the page clicks. Did it with Austin last year, did it with Flacco/Rivers this year, now the downright loony Wallace>Megatron. Boo-urns Sir.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
It's called having an opinion. Any it's funny how you don't mention any of the articles that were spot on in their analysis. That's called being close minded, sir.
KC, you're getting slammed here. Wallace may have better metrics than Calvin Johnson, but does that mean he is the better receiver? Doesnt that simply mean that he is putting up more impressive numbers, not a blanket statement that he is better, more important to his team or harder to defend?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Wallace posted better numbers across the board last year and is posting numbers that are as good or better this year. To put it another way, Wallace has a significant yardage lead over Johnson over the past season and a half and he hasn't seen anywhere near as many targets. Everyone talks about how Wallace benefits from playing in the Steelers offense, but put Wallace in Detroit and he would be used as an all-around WR in the same way Megatron is.
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
And, by the way, it should be noted that Wallace was thrown 7 passes last week and caught all 7. Gained 70 yards, so it's a 100 percent completion rate and 10.0 YPA. Fantastic numbers.
Ryan F. (Tulsa, OK)
Feisty chat today. I guess we're all in midseason form!
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
The chatters certainly aren't holding back! Don't mind at all, as it makes for a fun chat.
Ryan F. (Tulsa, OK)
Speaking of Steelers, that Sun night game has to be more competitve than the season opener, right?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Big time. Pittsburgh is playing as well as any team in the league right now and the game is at Heinz Field. Am expecting a Black and Gold win in that one.
James Hardy or Calvin Johnson?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Now that's just being ridiculous!
I meant no disrepect KCJ. I am a fan of your work, and you have won me many a fantasy game. I was just questioning if sometimes you are sensational, for sensationals sake.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
No disrespect taken. I don't mind taking a controversial stance. If people only knew the controversial stances that could get page views but that I turn down because the case to make them simply isn't there, they would realize these articles aren't just chasing page views.
Pete (San Antonio)
KC I dig you because you focus on production over names and hype.Its how I continue to draft guys like Nicks in the 8th round last year and FJAX in the 5th this year. So if I can get Wallace for Ahmad, should I do it?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Thanks for that. If you can get Wallace for Ahmad, by all means do it. Probably won't happen because of Bradshaw's injury, but its certainly worth a try.
Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)
I'm the best WR in football. You try making Kevin Kolb look good.
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Glad to see someone was able to add some humor to this argument! And that isn't meant as a knock on Fitz.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Am I wrong in thinking the Lions were a little too cocky last week - Tebowing, Megatron showboating Dawkins at the goal line...or do they just have the swagger of a good team?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
It is who they are. Only potential issue I have with it is how do they react when another team does the same thing to them as payback. If the Lions can dish it out, they had better be able to take it without resorting to fights.
JP (Columbus, OH)
With one of their 2 first round picks next year, I want to see my Bengals get Andy Dalton another toy to play with - say, Michael Floyd from ND. He and AJ Green - are you kiddin' me?! Do you like it?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
That would be a potentially great pairing, wouldn't it? Not sure it will happen, but it could given the depth of quality WRs that could in this year's draft.
Who would you rather have rest of year? Julio or Colston (real football production...not fantasy)?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Probably Colston if only because he is a veteran. Jones is a great talent and was having a very good season before the injury, but he's still got the rookie learning curve.
just an fyi to others: wallace has the best dvoa and dvar in the league. stop concentrating on batting average.
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Assuming this is correct, it means my friends over at Football Outsiders are also on board with this. Good to see.
Is Cam Newton running away with the ROY awards? Huge numbers, little focus on what he does bad (picks, decision making). Who is your ROY?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
It's Newton hands down. It would take a complete collapse by him to give anyone else a shot at that honor.
Ed (Saginaw, MI)
What are your impressions of rookie CB- Patrick Peterson so far?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
More miss than hit in coverage. Item of note - Revis didn't exactly have a dominant rookie season (7.7 YPA) so a subpar start to his career doesn't mean Peterson will always be subpar.
Eric (Long Island, NY)
Hey Kc! I think the Jets offense could pose problems since Bills d isnt playing great but they're coming off a good game and they have the fans behind them. Is their D the x-factor of this game?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
The Bills still aren't very good at stopping the run and the NY offense has been run blocking a lot better of late. You are correct that this could be the underlying storyline.
Not going to be around today due to some family stuff but did want to say how much I enjoyed the chat during the MNF game this week. You guys did a great job. Kept me up until 12:30 AM for a game that I had zero rooting interest in (OK well maybe I had V-Jax starting in my FFL). Have a great chat and I should catch you tomorrow for the Fantasy Football version.
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
Saved this one for last to let J.B. get in his usual chat ending post. Three items of note. The chat J.B. mentioned is the MNF chat on ESPN.com. It's a three-hour long conversation, so please join in while watching the game. The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. There will also be a midseason discount for the TFS start-sit service. Look for more info on this on Friday at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see everyone in Friday's 3 PM ET fantasy football chat!