Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Ken (IN) [via mobile]
If Jim Irsay says that Ryan Tannehill is a hidden gem why aren't the Colts drafting him?
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Great question. Or why aren't they keeping quiet and hoping he falls to the second round where they could draft him and trade him to another team?
the DCHAV (Wuxi, China)
Would a Matt Forte for Mike Wallace trade work for both parties? Who says no? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
The Steelers could use a great running back and the Bears need a vertical threat to replace Johnny Knox (assuming he doesn't return). It sounds like a perfect fit personnel-wise.
Frank (Minneapolis) [via mobile]
Would a first, second and next years first be enough for Speilman (or Zygi if you listen to Irsay) to trade the 3rd pick depending on the team?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
If someone makes that type of offer, the Vikings should immediately close the deal.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
And if anyone pays that type of premium for Tannehill, they are likely making a mistake, as today's TFS article detailing why Weeden is a better prospect than Tannehill indicates.
Ben (KC) [via mobile]
Is it possibly that with the weapons the Chiefs have gotten for Cassel and the strong possibility that the Chiefs may draft a QB that they are saying to Cassel we believe in you but this is your last chance to prove you're our starter? If he is in this "last chance" situation what kind of season does Cassel have to have to secure his starting role? How well do you think the chiefs will do?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Cassel's career is somewhat defined by his biggest weakness - an inability to post consistent production on vertical passes. The Chiefs gave him some long-range targets last year but that offense still didn't produce big enough numbers on vertical throws. If Cassel can't make that happen this year, it's time to end this experiment.
KC, which is harder to find in round 2? Pass rush help or secondary?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Probably pass rush help in that this year's draft doesn't seem to go very deep in pure pass rushers. Having said that, the secondary depth in this draft isn't great, either.
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I can say there is one sleeper CB who will be around in round 2 or maybe later - Georgia CB Brandon Boykin.
Brian (Lafayette, LA)
Non-bountygate question regarding the Saints. What do you think of their defensive moves this offseason - Signing DT Bunkley, LB Lofton, LB Hawthorne and how bad will the loss of CB Tracy Porter hurt?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Those are good moves and Porter's coverage skills are overrated. All in all it has been a productive offseason for NO from this limited perspective.
Tom (Niagara Falls)
Thanks KC. Enjoy your opinions. Keep them coming. If the Bills chose Kuechly (which is just learned is pronounced Keek/ly), who would be positioned where in their Linebacker positions in a 4-3 ??
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Thanks for joining the chat! If memory serves correct regarding the Bills LB corps, I would imagine Kuechly would play weakside LB.
KC, I agree with you! While I think Ryan Tannehill has the skills to be a solid NFL QB(in due time ofcourse). I feel Brandon Weeden is the better QB now and in the future. And Weeden would be a TOP 15 pick IMO if it wasnt for his age.
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Weeden would absolutely be a top 15 pick if not for his age. And he should still be a first-round pick even with his age. The more I broke down his tape and reviewed other factors, the more it became clear just how good of a prospect Weeden is.
But KC, if the Vikings make that deal isn't Kalil most likely drafted by someone else?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Yep, but two ones and a two for a one is enough of a price to give up the shot at drafting Kalil (assuming the two ones are not low-end No. 1 draft slots).
Where do you want a qb completion percentage to be coming out?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Depends on the type of offense. Dink/dunk passers should be pushing 65 percent in college. Vertical passers have to be over 60 percent.
John.C (Bethlaham Park,NY)
KC, Do you think Luke Kuechly would be a good fit for the Buffalo Bills and Dave Wannstedts 4-3 defense?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
The man is an absolute tackling machine. Buffalo has the mass up front and if they get the LBs to finish plays up, they could finally have a defense that isn't a sieve against the run.
Bob (Anderson, Ca)
Burfict will be drafted in round ......?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Let's say he's a day 3 pick. And there are a lot of reasons teams should just consider not drafting him at all. Talent can only go so far to offset negatives and he has a boatload of negatives.
I think there may be a few people remembering the last time an older QB was drafted. Chris Weinke anyone?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Yeah, but Weeden isn't Weinke. I was a big FSU fan when Weinke was QB and even us die hard Noles backers knew that Weinke was a college wonder who likely wouldn't translate his game into pro success.
do you see the steelers trading down and still get hightower along with another second round draft pick?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
I can't imagine they would want to take that risk since Hightower looks to be such a perfect fit for their defense.
What do you think of the Packers going with Kendall Reyes in the 1st and Bruce Irvin, Ronnie Lewis, or trading up for Vinny Curry in the 2nd?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
A move towards Irvin would be a concern because of his off-field issues.
Does KC have any faith in the kid from Iowa at QB (his name is escaping me)?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
James Vandenberg? KC does have some faith in him but the Iowa offense does have to replace McNutt. Having said that, the Big Ten secondaries are among the worst I've seen in the college tape breakdowns, so it won't take a dominant set of wideouts for a QB to succeed in that conference.
Which of these O-lineman do you feel will IMPACT there new teams O-line instantly? David Decastro/Cordy Glenn/Riley Reiff?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Hate to split hairs, but it depends on the team they end up with. Decastro probably has the best chance of a huge immediate impact in general.
A 14 it seems like the Cowboys are out of the range of the top players. Barron seems like Roy W II, and none of the DL seem like pass rushers. Would it make sense bite the bullet and take Costanzo if he's there?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Hate to say it but the Cowboys would benefit most from taking a chance on Barron. I completely agree that he could be another Roy Williams but Dallas needs to make an all out effort to upgrade that secondary and in this year's draft, it might mean taking chances on prospects.
Would you advocate for Michael Floyd to be drafted in the TOP 10?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Absolutely not. His mediocre metrics were a big reason he ranked tied for 6th in the TFS top 10 Draft WR article (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/page/insiderJoynerDraftWRRanking/ranking-2012-nfl-draft-top-10-receivers-nfl).
Cirilo R. (CA)
Miami...not a fan, but if seems they might be sitting really pretty if they take a little from TFS. Let other team make mistakes and pick best possible at #8, meaning not Tannehill. Weeden in the 2nd...maybe trade up a bit to secure him.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Here's the thing about Miami and Tannehill. If Mike Sherman thought Tannehill was a top 10 NFL caliber prospect two years ago, why did he keep Jerrod Johnson as the Aggies starting QB and keep Tannehill locked in at WR?
Steven (Kingsport, TN)
Hola from the Smokey Mountains. The Iowa QB in KC is Ricky Stanzi. Have you been able to look at Donta Hightower yet? I just rewatched the national title game and when he put his hand in the dirt and rushed the passer, the Tigers couldn't block him. Swim, bull, speed to power, everything. I think he might be the best DE in the draft though most see him as a ILB.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Hey, great to hear from the Smokies. Wasn't sure if that question was referring to Stanzi or Vandenberg. Hightower could probably be a rush DE but his NFL career would probably go better if he landed as a rush LB with a 3-4 D.
Browns draft > #4, Trent Richardson, #22 Stephen Hill, #25-32, (trade back into the first) For Brandon Weeden... Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
That would be a fantastic draft for the Browns. Let's hope they are reading this chat :-)
Correct me if I'm misinterpreting you, but it sounds like you think Miami should go best available in the 1st round and grab Weeden with a 2nd rounder to be their project/future QB?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
You hit it on the head. Miami can't get one of the two impact QBs in this draft, so they might as well address some of the other weaknesses on their club and get a QB who can provide immediate returns.
Giants trade for Rivers completed today. Last time Giants completed a trade, it involved...SAGE! Just had to send that in.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Haven't heard a SAGE comment on here in a while - glad to see its return!
KC, You make a great point about Sherman and Tannehills history! So do you think the Phins will draft Ryan Tannehill at 8?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Miami's organization seems to be determined to make some kind of splash personnel move this offseason. They seem to want a headline even if it is the type of move that really won't help their team. Paying a big price for Tannehill seems to fit that description perfectly.
Richard (Greensboro, NC)
If Cox, Poe, and Brockers are all gone when Denver picks at 25, is Reyes or Worthy too much of a reach or do you think he is still a solid pick at that spot? Is this one of those times people say there is no way they don't take a DT only to see the team go the opposite direction?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Worthy was nearly unblockable at times last year, but only when he felt like being unblockable. If Denver thinks they have someone on staff who can push Worthy to play at a high level on a more consistent basis, he wouldn't be a reach.
Mike (San Diego)
KC, what are the Eagles biggest needs for the draft? Are they in position to go BPA? I would think so...but, I'm not a scientist!
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
I think the Eagles need to go for safety help if they can. On a related note, Todd McShay's latest mock draft has a group of draft scenarios for each team - check it out - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7795172/2012-nfl-mock-draft-breaking-first-round-scenarios
Do you agree with the assessment that while talented, LSU D-lineman tend not to pan out. Do you think this is an indictment on the players themselves, or the program or style of play?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Not sure there is a common denominator between all of those players. Having said that, Les Miles does approach things in a much different way than many coaches, so it might be that the NFL coaches just need to study his way of doing things.
I'm not sold on Tannehill either, but couldn't Sherman's reluctance to start him over J Johnson been due to the skill set of the surrounding players on offense, and what the team needed to do to win immediatly rather than lack of confidence in Tannehill?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
I don't mean that to second guess Sherman's call in 2010, but rather to say if a team thought they had a franchise caliber QB on their roster, why would they not move him to a starting role over an inconsistent and injured incumbent starting QB (as Johnson was at the time)?
Cirilo R. (Ca)
"I wasn't supposed to even work today!! TFS, do you recall the metrics (ball park) on Mike Goodson from 2010? He didn't play much last year. Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
How many people are saying that right now - I'm not even supposed to be here! Not sure on Goodson's numbers but if memory serves correct, he had a very high GBYPA rate in 2010 on a small sample size.
Kyle Williams and Glenn Dorsey(took Dorsey a yr or 2) are studs from LSU!
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Mikey weighs in with a comment in favor of the Tigers.
KC if the draft order stays the same, what team do you see as most likely to throw a wrench into the pre-draft projections? Basically who would be your 2012 Oakland Raiders?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Miami is the most obvious choice. Also could see Dallas making some moves that could throw the 1st round out of whack.
Les (Texas) [via mobile]
Why is Case Keenum projected as a late round QB & do think he would be a good fit for the Cowboys?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
He's seen as a system QB. Drafting him as a project player would certainly not be a bad move.
I noticed from an ESPN art that my beloved Titans are watching the Injured OU receiver work out. What round would TFS draft him?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
It's an awfully deep draft for WRs, but if Broyles shows he is getting back to his old form, a case could be made for a 2nd round selection. He had 1st round caliber talent before the injury.
It seems that no one will make the move to sign mike wallace and give up a 1st rounder. I bet if calvin johnson was tendered at a 1st round pick 20 nfl teams would be trying to sign him.
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
I've said it before and will say it again - Wallace's biggest issue at the moment is that teams don't want to give up a No. 1 pick for anyone. And Wallace did not do himself any favors by having a slump in the second half of the 2011 season.
Player comparisons are natural and easy to make, but the one premise that never seems to fail is that productive college players tend to at least produce minimally in the NFL whereas higherend unproven talent often fizzles. With that being said, it seemed pretty convincing that Ray Rice would be good in the league, and while Doug Martin is small in stature and played well for Boise St, shouldn't we think much of the same about him?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
The issue for Martin is that his YPC was quite low. It's hard to project someone to have a top-line NFL caliber YPC when they don't post a top-line YPC in college.
If WR is the deepest position, which one has the shallowest talent pool for this draft, KC?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
I'm not sold on the CB class. Even Claiborne, the highest rated CB prospect on nearly every board, has coverage issues (7.5 YPA last year).
I see a lot of mocks have the Rams taking Blackman at 6. My comment remains (as a long time Titans fan), there is no way in Hades, Jeff Fisher ok's a WR at 6.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Given the depth of WR talent in this year's draft, he shouldn't take Blackmon at No. 6. The issue is that the Rams do need WR help and the elite talent drop-off in this year's draft starts at the No. 5 pick.
The 3 surest prospects in this draft after the 2 QBs are _______?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Richardson and Kalil are the surest. After that, the "sureness" level drops off.
Richard (Greensboro, NC)
Do you see Russell Wilson as a great mid round pickup for the Eagles? Seems like he'd be a perfect backup to Vick and while perhaps never a starter, over a short period of time he might be able to step in and win games.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
The concerns for Wilson are a) he struggled at times in big games and b) his size could afford some durability concerns. The Eagles already have a starting QB with durability concerns, so adding a backup with that same weakness might not be the best idea.
Could there be possible collusion over not signing RFAs? Seems possible considering the Wallace situation.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Wallace's situation probably has as much to do with his reported high-level contract demands as anything. It's cash, not collusion :-)
So if CB is the shallowest then wouldn't the Vikings be wise to grab the best of the bunch early or is it so shallow that CBs aren't even worth the risk?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
It's too shallow. If they have the No. 3 pick, take the player closest to being a sure thing (Kalil) rather than hoping a top-line CB turns out.
KC, Whats your take on AZ's Juron Criner? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Hot and cold. Sometimes he looks great and other times he looks not so great. He'd be a great day three pick for development.
Weeden's age keeps him off my board, period. what do i want with a 29 yr old rookie QB? He won't get drafted in first 3 rds.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
For starters, he's 28 right now and won't turn 29 until near the end of the 2012 season. Second, there are many NFL QBs who play at a high level well into their 30s.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Is Brock Osweiler a worthy selection for the Broncos in the 3rd round or so?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Osweiler has talent but he's quite erratic in his decision making and his throwing motion needs a lot of work. He's a risky pick.
I found your comparison of receivers somewhat misleading. By ranking them 1 to 10, you might be overstating the differences. For example, if the YAC difference between receivers 1 and 4 was only .5 yards and the difference between 5 and 7 was 3 yards, that metric does not account for it. Shouldn't the total scores be weighted?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I thought about weighing the scores in that manner but decided against it for a number of reasons. Having said that, it is part of why I tried to include as much info about each player in the analysis, as it allows people to use the info to make their own decisions on the subject.
If matt cassel dosnt win the afc west this year dont you think i should get to punch him?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I can't advocate direct violence against a player. How about just putting his picture on a dartboard?
I really like CB Trumaine Johnson from Montana! I like his size, speed, and ball skills. What about you?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I wish I had more tape of his, as he is a player a lot of people seem sold on.
who do you think is the likely team to win the AFC ?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
The New England Patriots right now look to be the team to beat in the AFC in 2012. Unless/until Brady starts to falter, that's going to be the case for the next couple of years.
Lets say a running back was only used on 3rd and 1 and goaline plays. This player happens to be very good in these situations and converts for a first down or TD 90% of the time. Your metrics would say that that player is terrible and has a very low YPA but in reality he is very good. just sayin that YPA isnt everything
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Thanks for the feedback. I'm actually going to be making some changes to the metric system this offseason to account for items such as the one detailed above. The alterations have been on the radar screen for a while now and it looks like I'll finally be able to fully integrate them in the near future.
Gotta run for this week. Always a good chat, KC. The chatters brought their A-Games today. Have a great week & see you next Thursday.
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
That they did and for that I say many thanks! Well, dinner is almost ready so I've got to join the family at the table. Quick note - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Hope to see you all here next week!