Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Hey KC, can't wait for the draft guide to come out! Do you have any pics for sleeper RBs to look out for, someone not going in the first 3 rounds?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Can't wait for the guide to get done! Working on it every day. Should be able to announce an updated release date very soon, will post it on the website (www.thefootballscientist.com) and on Twitter (@KCJoynerTFS). Primary sleeper RB would be Franklin.
Hey KC, who would you rather have this year: David Wilson, Leveon Bell, or Lamar Miller?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
As it stands now, Wilson. But that could change if Bell shows he can pass block.
MARI IL [via mobile]
My Main Man KC with arguably the second and third best fantasy tight ends gone in gronk and hernandez who is the next top two or three
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Witten is near the top of the list. Like Brandon Myers as someone who can develop into a top 5 TE this year.
am i crazy for thinking palmer has top 12 qb potential? better system, better receivers...just a better situation.
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
And he posted some very solid numbers last year in a less than ideal Oakland situation. Like Palmer's upside a lot.
KC, super jazzed for TFS guide! I'm seeing a monster trend with NFL defenses. The defensive coaching is an absolute key to success. The staff must have the ability to break down film. Last year RG3, kapernick and Wilson had outstanding years, probably because of lack of film and there unpredictability due to mobility. I'm gonna got out on a limb and say only Wilson will continue suscess only because he seems the most co servative
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Glad to hear you are super jazzed! Cannot wait to get the guide out this year - it's got some really cool new material. Nutshell is the rookies will have to change their games to maintain their performance level and in some cases that will be harder to do than others. Agree on Wilson - he's got a better chance than I initially thought to repeat.
The Doctor of Style, Slick (anywhere I wanna be)
How much do you think hyper drive offenses are going to impact the game. It seems to me those lineman would be worn out by the 4th quarter and susceptible to all kinds of bad things...like increased sacks, turnovers, etc.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Just read in a book that Slick is actually the son of Rufus R. Jones (he of the famous comment, "My name is Rufus R. Jones and the R. stands for guts!). The idea of using a hyper drive offense works best if that hyper drive is offset with a slow down and wear the other team out clock mode to use with 4th quarter leads. Got to think teams will go that direction.
Do you personally play any non standard fantasy football leagues?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Yep. Always try to join at least one league where the scoring or some other rule is unusual - makes it more interesting.
Squall (Balamb Garden)
I see you are among the mass of fantasy writers underrating Dennis Pitta. He will have a much bigger role in the Ravens' offense with Boldin gone, and I think he'll end the season a top-5 TE.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Like his talent, just don't like how so much of his production last year came in one game and a couple of other plays. Just not sure Baltimore is going to make him a big enough part of the offense. Could be wrong, though.
Jon (Des Moines)
Pardon the lengthy question, but Good afternoon! Interested in your thoughts for LeSean McCoy's value in PPR for the upcoming season. Do you see him getting the bulk again? I need to extend my contract with him (two more years-- I give up my 3rd round pick which is where I drafted him two years ago) or release him by the end of the month. Seems like a lock to me, but I can't quite get past the concussion issue just yet. My other option is D. Thomas for three years (4th round pick from last season). Thanks for the advice. Looking forward to the season.
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Nutshell answer is the RB position is incredibly thin this year and the WR position is much stronger. Keep McCoy and look for a replacement for Thomas.
Cowboys fan (Corpus christi Tx)
any closer to the release of your awesome draft guide? cant wait! Tavon Austin how do you see him fairing this year, would you take him over guys like Mike Wallace and Hakeem Nicks in a PPR format?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Working like mad on the guide (it's a crazy but very fun time of the year doing this). Like Austin a lot, especially in a PPR, but would still take Wallace or Nicks over him. Barring injury (a big potential issue for Nicks), those two will get similar target volumes and have more down the field ability than Austin.
Megatron >>>>>>>>>>> Wallace
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Count 'em up - that's 11 greater than signs. One more than the last time. Give Doug credit - he's consistent!
Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)
What did you think of TE Aaron Hernandez Charged with Murder?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
What's to say? It's a bad situation in every conceivable way.
Squall (Balamb Garden)
Will Danny Amendola catch 175 passes this year out of necessity? Slight exaggeration, but seriously, who else is Brady going to throw to?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
The Patriots ran a ton of offensive plays last year, both passing and running. These personnel changes just make it more likely they will scale that fast-paced attack back and lean on the rush game more.
I have nothing better to do than send these messages in every week.
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Hey, it's a staple of the chat - check out last week's chat for proof!
Candy (Slippery Rock)
Hi, how do you think Dustin Keller will do in Miami this year?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
It'll be a step up from NY but not by that much. Am thinking 80-85 targets, 50-60 receptions, maybe 700-800 yards.
with the mess in ne, is brady still blue rated?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Nope. He'll rate a high green rating but the multiple question marks (including his declining performance late last year) will preclude him from getting a blue rating.
Mr. Jones (Texas )
I need some help with keepers 12 man PPR league i need 1 Roddy lose a 3rd rd, Ridley Lose a 3rd rd or A Brown lose a 5th rd? I dont need to mess this team up like i have others so please help
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Keep the RB. That's going to be the mantra for a lot of FFB issues like this one.
Who finishes the season with more carries Bradshaw or Ballard?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Tough call, as that currently has the look of a pure platoon. Would say Ballard by a small amount, as he'll be the thunder to Bradshaw's lightning.
How do feel about the QB WR combo? I have friends that swear by it, but I hate taking the risk in case the QB has an off day. I love the 12 pts whne a TD is thrown, but even Manning Brady and Rodgers had an off game or 2 and thats all it takes to ruin a FF season.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
It's not a situation to avoid altogether, as having Manning and Thomas would be a great combination this year. Having said that, it does cause bye week issues and having two players with an off game can cause as many losses as wins. Avoid it in general but not all the time.
John Bauer (Nashville, TN)
How many wins for the Bills this year and what rookie will have the biggest impact this season?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Thinking 9 wins for Buffalo - really like a lot about that club (they could have a top 10 offense). Big impact rookie is Franklin for GB.
How essential is keeping Graham if you own him? He takes up a ton of my keeper budget, and if I cut him I could keep Harvin and Lamar Miller.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
He's a big plus due to thin ranks at TE but he'd be worth giving up for a starting RB. Miller looks like he'll be a starter and adding Harvin to the mix means it's a move worth making.
follow-up: i'm guessing there will be 3 blue rated qb's - rodgers, brees and peyton. would that mean brady at 4?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Haven't finalized the rankings yet but that's the likely scenario. Could end up moving one other QB in front of Brady (possibly Cam).
Can MJD be trusted anymore?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
He's aging, has a lot of wear and tear and is not in the best offense. Lots to not trust about him.
With both Cruz and Nicks potentially playing for a contract, a potential top 5 TE in Brandon Meyers and intriguing 3rd and 4th WRs in Randle and Murphy, how good can the NYG passing game be this year?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Good eye, B. The G-Men were pretty good in the air in many ways last year and that was despite a lot of negative issues. Nicks healthy, Myers as an upgrade, Cruz with the contract issue off his mind, some stability at WR3/4 - the paths for upside here are multiple.
Craig (Braintree, MA)
Have you looked into whether it is possible for AD (or any running back) to gain 2500 yards in a season? I personally would like AD to increase his pass reception average instead of aiming for more yards.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Did an Insider article on this a few weeks back. Nutshell is his carry volume would likely have to move up some to get to 2.5K but not to the point where he couldn't handle it. Like his chances for breaking Dickerson's mark.
Martin (NYC )
Doug>>>>>>! Hey KC I've never done fantasy football, can you recommend something that is good for beginners and doesn't require a lot of attention?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Pick a standard 10-team scoring league on ESPN.com. The scoring is easy to follow, 10 teams means a lot of quality players on every team. Maybe try to find a league with a wider playoff pool as well, as that will keep everyone interested in the season for a longer period of time.
Which RB is the better keeper? Trent Richardson or Alfred Morris? I can only keep one. Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Tough call. Would say Morris because the Redskins have a better QB and thus it makes it harder to defend him.
Squall (Balamb Garden)
The Cowboys in 2012 got 78.9% of their offensive yards through the air, the fourth-most by any team EVER. Will they recommit to the run game this year, and do they have the personnel (Murray, backups, and O-line) to be better at it?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Dallas ranked in the middle of the league in GBR last year and that was with a constantly shifting O line. They've got the talent to go with the ground game more and actually should do that more if only because it wears the other team down. Am thinking they will start to move a bit back in the run direction this year.
Mitch (Las Vegas, NV)
Do you see a return to fantasy greatness for Jermichael Finley without Jennings on the roster?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Jennings departure is likely to open up more passes for Jones/Cobb/Nelson than it is for Finley. Finley will be a solid TE given the dearth of TE talents this year but he's not likely to be a dominant one.
AJ (Clovis NM)
Mr. Joyner with the news on hernandez and lack of top TE's does that now make Graham a 2nd rd pick over guys like Dez, Marshall and Green?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Graham has a few question marks of his own, so it's hard to see placing him above talents like Dez, Marshall and Green, especially since Graham is almost certain to go later in most draft rooms than those three. Put it this way - Graham should be considered along the lines of a flex starter (i.e. get your starting RBs and WRs first before thinking of drafting him).
last year's draft guide had cook #7. thoughts on him this year? cook in stl could be huge, no?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Could very well be huge there. Tennessee had more than a few playcalling issues last year that did not help him. St. Louis doesn't have those issues, so he may end up as a top 10 TE prospect in this year's draft guide as well.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Saw an article saying that Gio Bernard was the best handcuff this year? Have any metrics to support this? Or is this just an indictment of BGE's pedestrian talent?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
The Law Firm had what has to be considered his best season and he still didn't even top the 7-yard GBYPA mark. He just doesn't have top-caliber breakaway skills and is best suited as a thunder back. Bernard has lightning potential and will see more than his share of carries because of that.
Are there any other fantasy analysts that you're a fan of?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
I may risk being called a homer but I'm a big fan of our ESPN fantasy analysts. Berry, Harris and Karabell are on my must-read lists every week.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Related note - Berry's new book "Fantasy Life" is an awesome read. It will remind readers why fantasy football is so much fun.
Will Ridley and Vereen be weekly starters this year given the fact that Ridley will get the bulk of the rushes and Vereen the bulk of the catches out of the backfield?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Got to think NE's RB situation will be more of a lead/alternate approach, with Ridley as the lead and Vereen as the alternate. That would make Ridley a weekly starter and Vereen a possible flex candidate in favorable matchup situations.
rodney (Atlanta, GA)
Rams fan checking in here.What do you think is more likely, TAvon Austin going for 2000yd total or Givens going over 1000yds receiving?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Givens. Like Austin a lot but 2K for a primarily short-pass WR is a really hard goal to reach.
Derrick (Garden City)
Hello KC, Brandon Marshall or Dez Bryant in a PPR?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Very tough call. Would say Marshall because he's got a much better track record of durability.
Apart from fantasy sports, do you have any other vices that waste your time?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Not really. I write about fantasy football, the NFL, college football and the draft, so it's pretty much football 24/7/365 around here.
Peyton Hillis (living room)
KC - do you see a good team fit for me this season?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Lots of teams could use a power back of his caliber. RB is not a leaguewide position of strength right now.
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Well, the questions are slowing up a bit so it looks like its time to call it a chat. Couple of quick notes - the 2013 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is still available for a pre-order price of only $19.95 (but not for too much longer) at www.thefootballscientist.com. The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Thanks very much for all of the questions and I hope to see you all here next week!