TAB Betting Blog: Don't sleep on Just dreaming at Rosehill

Horses thunder down the Rosehill Gardens straight during the Sydney Spring Racing Carnival, 2018 Mark Evans/Getty Images


Rosehill Race 5 No.7 Just Dreaming (Rachel King) - $3.50

She's been a beaten favourite at both her starts this time in, but I think Saturday is the day Just Dreaming pays dividends for her followers.

The Newcastle mare has always been one of mine, but I personally thought she was a silly price at both her runs this prep. First up, it was always going to be a task to win at 1400 metres on a heavy surface; then second up, when she was well backed into odds on, she was always going to have to do the chasing behind frontrunner Fabrizio and she tired a little late.

She stays at the seven furlongs for the third time since the spell, but she's back at arguably her favourite track at Rosehill. This is an easier race than the first two she's been in, plus she looks to get an absolute peach of a run probably just behind Oxford Poet and Passage Of Time.

Throw in the fact Just Dreaming will be back on a firmer surface and that she should be ready to peak fitness wise, I'm confident we'll see her get back in the winner's circle.


Sandown (Hillside) Race 3 No.7 Into The Abyss (Damian Lane) - $3.60

John Thompson has campaigned Into The Abyss in Melbourne all prep, bypassing the Princess series in Sydney, and targeting the black type options littered throughout the Spring Carnival. And the daughter of Foxwedge has been performing very well without winning.

Her last two starts in particular have been quality but she had little luck in either race. She was held up late in the blanket finish of Crockett at Moonee Valley, then on Melbourne Cup Day she worked early, couldn't find a spot, was three wide with no cover the entire trip outside the leaders on a solid speed, then still loomed up to win but a couple back in the field with softer runs got her late. I thought it was an outstanding effort, though, and she was the only one that was on speed to be anywhere close to being in the finish.

She draws awkwardly again here now, but hopefully Damian Lane can have a bit better luck slotting in this time. I reckon she's flying now, should be right at her peak and if she just has an ounce of luck in the run she'll prove she's a filly worth following for the future in better races than this.

Sandown (Hillside) Race 10 No.9 Mintha (Luke Currie) - $9

I don't think we've seen the extent of Mintha's upside yet. The daughter of Redoute's Choice, and grand-daughter of champion two-year-old Hasna, has yet to have a start at four, but we'd seen flashes of her ability at two and three, and right towards the end of her classic season she really started to put it together.

I reckon she's a very classy type, and it may well be now, as a fully mature race-mare, that we really begin to see her take another leap forward and show her true colours.

Tony McEvoy has given her two trials to have her ready for this first-up attempt at the 1500 metres in what is a quality mares event, where she's not well in at the weights. But her second trial was an eye-catching effort, and the fact that McEvoy is allowing her to have a crack at this type of race, at this stage of her prep, makes me believe that he thinks she is certainly ready to handle the task put in front of her.

This race should be a run at a decent clip, and Mintha will get a soft run midfield and be ready to rattle late if given the chance.


Doomben Race 8 No.1 Most Important (Jim Byrne) - $13

Now a six-year-old, Most Important has been a great galloper for his connections, winning 9 races and close to $900,000 in prizemoney, and Tony Gollan I'm sure would love an endless supply of gallopers with his resume in the stable.

The son of I Am Invincible has been racing in fantastic company for most of his life, certainly his last couple of preps, and this field he comes up against on Saturday in the Keith Noud, is certainly a beatable one for a horse of his calibre.

Yes, he's got to carry the 60 kilos, and yes, he's not really a first-up type. But bear in mind that he did run a genuine group one horse in Impending to half a length at level weights when having his first run back last prep in the Victory Stakes, over this same track and trip. I'm not convinced any of the others engaged here could do that.

I'm happy to take the double figures on offer about a horse, that, if he performs anywhere near his best, would be too good for his opposition.


Sandown (Hillside)

Leg 1 - 3,7,12

Leg 2 - Field

Leg 3 - 1,2,3,6,7

Leg 4 - 2,4,9

($100 = 27.78%)


Leg 1 - 2,3,6,7,9,11,12

Leg 2 - 1,3,4,6,7,10

Leg 3 - 5

Leg 4 - 1,2,5,10,11

($100 = 47.62%)


Leg 1 - 5,7,9,10,11,18

Leg 2 - 1,2,4,5,8

Leg 3 - 1,3,9,10

Leg 4 - 10,11,12

($100 = 27.78%)