We don't often think of Tom Brady limiting his interceptions as critical to a New England Patriots' victory, especially at home.
He doesn't throw that many to begin with, and he has tossed only three regular-season interceptions at home since the start of 2009.
Notice how I qualified that as "regular-season." In a demoralizing 33-14 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs, Brady threw three interceptions in that game alone.
AccuScore has focused on that stat when analyzing Sunday's rematch in Gillette Stadium. The Ravens have just a 34 percent chance of winning if they can't pick off Brady, but one interception will increase the Ravens' chances to 57 percent.
Through it's 10,000 simulations, AccuScore sees a way for the Patriots to increase the probabilities substantially: Three sacks and at least one Joe Flacco interception will give the Patriots a 70 percent likelihood of victory.
AccuScore's forecast is a coin flip.